Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 John88B

1 hour ago, John88B said:

Fortunately nature has a way of evening things out so one would hope that sometime soon the models start showing some promise of a prolonged spell of drier, warmer weather

I've been thinking / saying this for months. But here we still are lol.

[Fen Wolf]

 In Absence of True Seasons it will only get worse, let’s be real

[Neilsouth]

How's the models looking for this weekend? I see there are still concerns on this front causing problems for kent and how far north/north west it will track

Edited March 28 by Neilsouth

[Rain All Night]

On 26/03/2024 at 22:43, Rain All Night said:

12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 2nd (day 7)

12z ensemble means, out to Wed 10th (day 15)

We must have been bad people in a previous life, or perhaps in this one... there is an almost derisive lack of ambiguity here from the models.

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 4th (day 7)

0z ensemble means, out to Fri 12th (day 15)

I cannot think of anything interesting to say about these runs 

[LetItSnow!]

I suspect there will be a lot of cloud and rain associated with low pressure next week but if the wind does swing to the south and there are any sunny spells then no doubts in my mind parts of Kent and East Anglia could reach the upper teens Celsius, on the assumption the model is undercooking the temperatures. Projections of where the low will be could make the difference between a pleasantly warm spring day and an absolute washout so perhaps one to watch, though don't get your hopes up. I predict low pressure will have the ascendancy surely due to the atmosphere looking very juicy in NW Europe next week.

Edited March 28 by LetItSnow!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Fen Wolf  I don't think it'll get worse. Because we are heading towards warmer and longer days so even worst case scenario it'll be warmer, brighter rain lol.

Either way, July 2023 to present has genuinely been the worst protracted spell of weather in my lifetime. Just woeful.

People bemoan 2012 a lot but it was not this dull and wet for this long. 

[Fen Wolf]

 In Absence of True Seasons i hope you are correct but i meant in the grand scheme of things; i believe this might be the new norm, everything went to $hit worse than it was in 2020 and even the weather now seems to be bad.  
 

on the bright side lots of lightning and snow in the last 24 hours! 

[raz.org.rain]

 In Absence of True Seasons the only saving grace is that this wet spell has already gone on for an unprecedentedly long time, so theoretically it will be nearing its end. The contributing factors are waning (SSTs dropping, North Atlantic cooling) and there are factors favourable to a warmer and drier summer (final strat warming, unprecedented levels of warmth in the northern hemisphere).

Knowing our luck we'll get the extreme opposite and it'll be bone dry through to next spring. The much maligned ENSO transition could work in our favour in this case as it puts everything in motion for a grand shuffle and ideally results in the jet stream shifting northward as it responds to the cooler SSTs in the North Atlantic.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not sure how the upcoming spell is going to unfold. Can the ground take up to another 100mm of rain in the next couple of weeks?

 

GFS 6z has us up there as one of the wettest parts of the hemisphere. How long until flooding becomes an issue?

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Cheshire Freeze Genuinely worrying for our landscapes and agriculture (and people's homes in flood-sensitive areas) if that manifests.

[A Face like Thunder]

 Cheshire Freeze fully agree, the ground is still saturated from last night's rain here in Crewe and I don't think it was particularly heavy. Pools of water on our patio which are showing no signs of going away. One small sign of hope, the barometer seems to have bottomed out from a low below 29.0 

[Airedalejoe]

 In Absence of True Seasons I'll raise you from November 2022 till now bar a few very short lived spells of drier weather. If it hadn't been for 4 freeze ups of all the mud it would have been even worse!

Longer days, wind and higher sun mean better drying out but there's barely a day without rain and the water table must be so high the slightest amount of rain returns us to square one.

The models show that's it's more of the same unfortunately, by far and away the worst prolonged wet weather in my lifetime.

[Cloud 10]

GFS 12z with an interesting set-up for Northern areas middle of next week as a sharp frontal boundary delivers heavy snowfall,

 

Ensemble mean has the boundary very similar to the op. run.

 

 

 

Edited March 28 by Cloud 10

[Jason M]

 Cheshire Freeze Plant growth and evaporation rates are increasing sharply now. That won't completely mitigate but it will certainly help.

[minus10]

 Cloud 10 yes the difference clearly shown up on the 850s between the north and south..

...as well as snow there would be a lot more rain with that set up...just what we dont need....

[ANYWEATHER]

The 12z gfs is a continuation of what has been over and over recently, with perhaps a little respite over Easter ,before it all kicks off again later on Tuesday. Hopefully it's wrong, but if this keeps up, where I live and other parts of the country , will be like the great flood of 1886 ,when most of Worcestershire was under water ......

[Atleastitwillbemild]

 Fen Wolf I am so completely up for this. Deadly serious about it too. Can we make that happen? I'm happy to be someone's live-in cleaning lady (boy)

[stodge]

Evening all

Not really a lot to be said about tonight's output as there's a strong common theme.

The current LP shifts west and then elongates south west back into the Atlantic and sends energy south and west to build a new long elongated trough - it's a pattern we've seen before and basically it's what happens when you get heights to the north trying to push south and heights to the south trying to push north.

A succession of LP move close to the British Isles through next week maintaining the unsettled and wet theme with a risk of snow to higher areas midweek as a little feature crosses southern Britain.

12Z ECM offers finally a sign of the jet pushing back north but it's a long way from a done deal and 12Z GFS OP maintains a largely unsettled evolution well into FI. Very early hints around mid month of something more settled but far too far off to be taken seriously at this time.

The GFS OP rainfall numbers suggest another 3-4 inches of rain widely across the south and west of England, Wales and the Pennines (possibly as snow) in the next 10 days so flooding concerns remain.

[Uncertainty]

 In Absence of True Seasons absolutely agree mate

 Summer8906 I think the high solar, Atlantic SSTs, the ssw and plain bad luck are driving the continuation. One sure thing about luck is it has to change but the first two aren’t anytime soon. You wouldn’t have thought a quick / rapid transition to a Nina will help either. Maybe the return to a period of relative SPV strength might shake things up. I hate west based -nao more than any other pattern, apart from the dec 2015 pattern. We haven’t had a scandi high that has affected us positively since June. We’ve had about 15 pointless Greenland wedges in that time and all we get are a U.K. low or back door southwesterlies. Regardless, having 10 wetter than average months in a row really would be something. Imagine if it was the other way round? I still think that when it flips it flips these days. I just still can’t see any sign of it happening.

[damianslaw]

A theme of the last 9 months has been a strong iberian/euro high trying hard to push north, but quite strong heights to our north as well, sometimes NW, sometimes NE, but never positioning themselves to allow northern blocking to exert a hold against the atlantic. The effect, the atlantic trough has been squeezed inbetween on a collision course for the UK, right now is a good example, July notably so. Sometimes the trough has elongated and been forced back on itself to our west, pushing in mild southerlies and south westerlies.. Feb a good example. We do seem to be in a never ending washing cycle of low pressure spinning around and around over and near the UK.

Back to the Easter 4 day period, mixed in a word, variable conditions UK wide, unusually the far north may end up being the driest place. 

Good Friday - very showery, some places could be plagued by heavy ones, others may escape dry. Rather cloudy and temps average.

Easter Saturday - less showery, but still threat for anywhere, brighter breaks and will feel mild in any sun and light winds

Easter Sunday - perhaps the best chance of staying dry, and mildest day of the 4 days. Could be very decent.

Easter Monday - could be quite wet in places. A little cooler.

 

Edited March 28 by damianslaw

[Summer8906]

 Cloud 10 If only that cold air was 200 miles further south!

The front will also mark the boundary between brighter air (to the north) and gloomy, damp air (to the south) also, I suspect...

Sensible people will have booked a holiday next week, whether to southeastern Europe or northern Scotland. Sadly I'm not so sensible, having been lulled into an expectation that spring provides the best weather of the year in southern England...

Edited March 28 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A theme of the last 9 months has been a strong iberian/euro high trying hard to push north, but quite strong heights to our north as well, sometimes NW, sometimes NE, but never positioning themselves to allow northern blocking to exert a hold against the atlantic. The effect, the atlantic trough has been squeezed inbetween on a collision course for the UK, right now is a good example, July notably so. Sometimes the trough has elongated and been forced back on itself to our west, pushing in mild southerlies and south westerlies.. Feb a good example. We do seem to be in a never ending washing cycle of low pressure spinning around and around over and near the UK.

It is remarkable that several changes of season (the onset of autumn, winter and now spring) have done nothing to disrupt the pattern, as discussed above. One might think that, however favourable the environment is to this kind of setup, it would not perpetuate for so very, very long.

Edited March 28 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Back to the Easter 4 day period, mixed in a word, variable conditions UK wide, unusually the far north may end up being the driest place. 

Good Friday - very showery, some places could be plagued by heavy ones, others may escape dry. Rather cloudy and temps average.

Easter Saturday - less showery, but still threat for anywhere, brighter breaks and will feel mild in any sun and light winds

Easter Sunday - perhaps the best chance of staying dry, and mildest day of the 4 days. Could be very decent.

Easter Monday - could be quite wet in places. A little cooler.

Could one crumb of comfort for the next 10 days be that the pressure patterns this weekend have subtly shifted, to force the low to the south of the UK for a brief period later on Saturday and earlier on Sunday, even bringing in easterlies for a time? So yes, perhaps a window of slightly better weather (for the south) for 24 hours from midday Sat to midday Sun - longer for places further north.

Could further lows also subtly shift their position, potentially drawing in air from a drier direction and making the next 10 days less dire than currently predicted?

[Neilsouth]

Does anyone have the fax charts for Saturday/Sunday? I'm considering making out door plans for Saturday but no point organising it, if it's going to be wet

[Summer8906]

 Neilsouth They're on wetterzentrale.de. Saturday has a slight ridging of the isobars so in Kent I wouldn't mind betting it'll be perhaps the driest day of the weekend with only a low risk of disruptive rain. Sunday might also be dry in the morning but the low is close to the south so a risk of a wet afternoon/evening depending on how close it is / how quickly it's moving.

Edited March 28 by Summer8906