Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[viking_smb]

 raz.org.rain  I agree I need to sand the thwarts (seats) on my sea cadet units motor launch but cant at mo (pic is when we first got her in 2021)

[northwestsnow]

If only it was .....

On this occasion its a warm easterly 

..

Edited April 25 by northwestsnow

[jamesthemonkeh]

LOL should be sufficient analysis.

[Howie]

 jamesthemonkeh

This is getting ridiculous now!

[jamesthemonkeh]

 Howie 10 days away but it does also have some support as the ECM medium-range and CFSv2 long-range suggest a high pressure anomoly to the west.

Pretty much makes up my decision to go on holiday in May!  More hope for latter parts of May, I'd suggest (albeit without evidence).

[Howie]

 jamesthemonkeh 

I wish that SSW didn't happen. Just want some warm sunny weather. Getting seriously depressed 

[drm]

 jamesthemonkeh fine for those further west, Ireland looking good again, those in the east will have to put up with a  cool north/north east flow, low cloud etc, I'd rather it was centred 300/400 east. The feed of northerlies is endless here in the east. 

[Rain All Night]

18 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 1 May (day 7)

Could we see that warmer easterly right at the beginning of May? Both flavours of ECM plus the UKMO seem to think it's possible...

0z ensemble means, out to Thu 9 May (day 15)

The ECM mean wants to support its op on the idea of warmer air coming in briefly from the east right at the beginning of May. Beyond that we have clear signs of anticyclonic activity in our vicinity in early May, but with an equally clear risk that this will remain too far to our west or southwest for us to warm up.

Why did it feel so darn cold when I woke up this morning?!

Current temperature (colours) and wind (lines) at 850hPa (left) and at the surface (right), screenshotted from https://earth.nullschool.net/ at something like 10am this morning.

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 2 May (day 7)

Start of May doesn't look too bad for the northeast and Scotland then?

0z ensemble means, out to Fri 10 May (day 15)

GEFS still doesn't want that easterly! Later on it's still just the same story of Atlantic ridging with us looking to be on the cold side of it.

[ANYWEATHER]

 Rain All Night too many charts for my liking . Sorry. Just complicates things in my eyes anyway….

[Northwest NI]

 northwestsnow all the way from Svalbard in May. Lovely.

 jamesthemonkeh all the way from Svalbard in May. Lovely.

[Kentspur]

 jamesthemonkeh How would the Lake district fare in this set up still chilly? Im off there and also a day trip to the West Coast of Scotland im guessing better than here in the SE closer to the high? I always hear the NW is best in May and first half of June

Edited April 25 by Kentspur

[ANYWEATHER]

Oh, for the expansion of the Hadley cycle ,

[damianslaw]

 Kentspur A high anomaly to our west in May would usually bring a chill but bright/sunny northerly airflow, western parts would see the sunniest conditions including the Lake District. In such set ups the air is often sparkling clear and indeed brings superb conditions here. Obviously troughs can become embedded in true arctic shots but rarely potent in May, perhaps a few showers. Even better is a more NE flow that can bring warmth to the west whilst the east is plagued by cloud, a common set up in May. I always say mid April to mid June best time to visit the Lake District.

Back to the models, its all a bit unclear how next week will pan out, signs of the atlantic  trough reappearing to the west to pull in a cloud dankfest to west parts once the milder easterly is out of the way, then we await to see if an atlantic ridge develops again or we maintain more notable heights direct to the north. Either way no heatwave on the cards, nor deluge, all quite benign typical stuff for this juncture in the year.

Edited April 25 by damianslaw

[WYorksWeather]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Nothing wrong with the hovmoller charts either - it's all the same data to be fair. Whether you use meteograms, ensembles or whatever it's all just different presentations of the same raw data. Again my posts should be taken as the situation at the time - things may look different from day to day. Going to do a quick post now.

[WYorksWeather]

Both GFS and ECM 12z ensembles look slightly more encouraging perhaps than they did yesterday.

The 12z GFS OP was at the top end, but there does seem to be a bit more of a marked warmup around the turn of the month. 20C may well be possible for favoured spots I imagine.

The ECM meteogram is introducing more uncertainty as soon as day 5 - still quite a lot to be resolved before we can have any confidence further into May.

For what it's worth, UKV has a raw 19C for Tuesday afternoon - of course key uncertainties still to be resolved.

Based on these three, a warmup looks to be coming around the turn of the month as I've highlighted previously, but there's nothing I'm seeing that suggests anything notable.

Again, easy to forget how fast things are changing at this time of year. By early May date records are around 27-28C, so for a warm spell to be at all notable it would have to hit mid 20s. At the moment we're nowhere near that on any of the model output.

Summary

Probably increasing chances compared to yesterday of at least a 2-3 day warmup around the turn of the month. Favoured spots have a chance of hitting 20C, possibly feeling warm at times and a welcome improvement if you're looking for warmth, certainly. But still a long way from anything particularly notable at this stage. And I say this as someone who would welcome something significantly warmer - if the output supports it I'll be the first to say so.

Further ahead the cooldown beyond the first few days of May now looks a bit more uncertain than it did, but given the uncertainties as soon as day 5 probably not worth losing too much sleep over that at this stage in any case.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 WYorksWeather wonder if the ECM clusters support that? I think also the weather in the tropics should be taken note of.   

i reckon the warm IOD is also causing problems as well with the atmosphere.   If I'm honest we need something a bit more neutral across all areas so something more sustained can come off.   

According to world climate service it'll be a while before we get a positive AO/NAO combination.   To be fair also I am starting to find them very credible indeed.    

 

[minus10]

Well i know it is far out in la la land..but hey..what a site for sore eyes from gfs 0z this morning..

...after next weeks warm up the ens looking distinctly average though ..

..

..actually a little below..

..pressure..

...gfs op...you are just cruel !!! 

[Penrith Snow]

Some fantastic Northern Blocking on this mornings ECM, the Greenland High by day 9 is a peach, the UK remains on the cold side of the jet so any warm up will be fleeting.

Best keep the central heating on.

Andy

[danm]

A brief plume week after next? 

Edited April 26 by danm

[danm]

Let's hope the GFS has picked up on a new trend as we head into the second week of May:

[minus10]

 Penrith Snow yes it would be if it was January ...

[Don]

10 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

According to world climate service it'll be a while before we get a positive AO/NAO combination. 

No doubt in time for bloody winter! 

[Scorcher]

 Penrith Snow Bit of an exaggeration- the ensembles are actually not far off average for 850 hPa temps after a warmer spell next week (that admittedly might be tempered by rain and cloud).

Some people have the perception that a Greenland High always leads to cool conditions in the UK. It doesn't guarantee it at all.

[Rain All Night]

On 25/04/2024 at 12:10, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 2 May (day 7)

Start of May doesn't look too bad for the northeast and Scotland then?

0z ensemble means, out to Fri 10 May (day 15)

GEFS still doesn't want that easterly! Later on it's still just the same story of Atlantic ridging with us looking to be on the cold side of it.

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 3 May (day 7)

I'll take the developments from 1st May onwards without complaint - from the Met Office app forecast, it looks as though even down here in the far south we will see improved temperatures along with the inevitable showers. Should be nice for those further north who may stay dry?

0z ensemble means, out to Sat 11 May (day 15)

Through the first five days of May, we will see upper-level high pressure retrogress gracefully through the UK, teasing us with warmer air before leaving us once again at the mercy of cooler pressure patterns, which currently seem to be favoured by the ensembles right through the first third of May.

Edited April 26 by Rain All Night

[ANYWEATHER]

Another very cold day for the time of year for some , on Sunday ,under cloud and rain, hopefully its wrong ......