March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

19th held on to all CET records (17.5 1972, 11.8 1822, 9.6 2017) as 2024 values were 13.7, 11.3, 9.0 yesterday. 

Today's record mean is actually from 1779 (12.3) -- the recent highest mean was only 10.9 in 1992 -- and 1779 like 1822 does not have a corresponding max (those started in 1878), but we're into a season now where most days have quite high max records going along with cooler minima on clear nights (the 20th record high max was 17.2 (1929),  and record high min 9.4 was also in 2017). The record high mean on 21st (possibly about to be challenged) is only 11.7 and is a three-way tie in v2.0, so would like to clear out that mess with a solo record, and get on to working the CET down into the vicinity of 7.4 just sayin. 

[Roger J Smith]

Could see that 1779 record going too, by looks of today's reported max and min so far, oddly Feb 1779 did not retain any records past about 1950, but mar 1779 has the one to its credit.

The three-way tie for 21st involves 1927, 1931 and 2002. 

[WYorksWeather]

Inspired by a look at the annual CET so far - I was wondering, how close are we to the highest ever CET for the first three months of the year (or indeed, is that record likely to be broken)?

[reef]

 WYorksWeather its quite far off. March would have to be about 9.7C for example to beat the first three months of 1990 (6.5, 7.3, 8.3C for Jan-Mar).

[Derecho]

Looks like the CET guesses on Sunday were pretty close to the mark. After a sharp rise over recent days, the CET looks to level off. Not particularly cold according to the EC control but the 27th cold have a cold night with the control a lot milder then other ens. The control is generally one of the less warm members later on. I'd say a guess in the early 8s is looking good now.

[Roger J Smith]

I believe that (1990) is the highest mean monthly for Jan, Feb and Mar (equal weighted it would be 7.37 C). Second highest would be 2007 (avg 6.77) and 2024 would need to be 7.8 to tie it -- next are t3 1998 tied 2002 (avg 6.70) just ahead of 5th 1957 at 6.67. 2024 would tie 1998/2002 with a 7.6 Mar, and 1957 with 7.5. ... 1938 average 6.63 (7.4 needed to tie) ... 1834 was next at 6.60, and 2020 average was 6.57. So, the following is a list of all cases where Jan to Mar average 6.0 or higher (total CET 18 or greater).

Jan to Mar average 6.0 or greater (rank order) and what 2024 needed to tie

Rank ___ YEAR __ JAN _FEB _MAR ____ Average ___ 2024 to tie

_ 01 ____ 1990 ___ 6.5 _ 7.3 _ 8.3 _____ 7.37 ________ 9.6

_ 02 ? ___2024 ___ 4.7 _ 7.8 _ 8.1 _____ 6.87 ________ (result) _ edited in on 2nd April

... as 2024 secured 2nd, following ranks are now one greater ...

_ 03 ____ 2007 ___ 7.0 _ 6.0 _ 7.3 _____ 6.77 ________ 7.8

_t04 ____ 1998 ___ 5.1 _ 7.2 _ 7.8 _____ 6.70 ________ 7.6

_t04 ____ 2002 ___ 5.5 _ 7.0 _ 7.6 _____ 6.70 ________ 7.6

_ 06 ____ 1957 ___ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 9.2 _____ 6.67 ________ 7.5

_ 07 ____ 1938 ___ 5.7 _ 5.1 _ 9.1 _____ 6.63 ________ 7.4

_t08 ____ 1834 ___ 7.1 _ 5.6 _ 7.1 _____ 6.60 ________ 7.3

_t08 ____ 2014 ___ 5.8 _ 6.3 _ 7.7 _____ 6.60 ________ 7.3

_ 10 ____ 2020 ___ 6.4 _ 6.5 _ 6.8 _____ 6.57 ________ 7.2

_t11 ____ 1989 ___ 6.1 _ 6.0 _ 7.5 _____ 6.53 ________ 7.1

_t11 ____ 2022 ___ 4.7 _ 6.9 _ 8.0 _____ 6.53 ________ 7.1

_t13 ____ 1686 ___ 6.5 _ 6.0 _ 7.0 _____ 6.50 ________ 7.0

_t13 ____ 1921 ___ 7.3 _ 4.8 _ 7.4 _____ 6.50 ________ 7.0

_t15 ____ 1961 ___ 3.9 _ 6.9 _ 8.2 _____ 6.33 ________ 6.5

_t15 ____ 2017 ___ 4.0 _ 6.2 _ 8.8 _____ 6.33 ________ 6.5

_ 17 ____ 1750 ___ 4.0 _ 6.7 _ 8.2 _____ 6.30 ________ 6.4

_t18 ____ 1733 ___ 6.9 _ 6.0 _ 5.9 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3

_t18 ____ 1734 ___ 4.3 _ 6.4 _ 8.1 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3

_t18 ____ 1822 ___ 4.7 _ 6.3 _ 7.8 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3

_t18 ____ 1846 ___ 6.3 _ 6.4 _ 6.1 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3

_t18 ____ 2019 ___ 4.0 _ 6.9 _ 7.9 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3

_t23 ____ 1779 ___ 2.9 _ 7.9 _ 7.9 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2

_t23 ____ 1872 ___ 5.0 _ 6.9 _ 6.8 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2

_t23 ____ 1882 ___ 5.2 _ 6.1 _ 7.4 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2

_t23 ____ 2023 ___ 5.2 _ 6.5 _ 7.0 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2

_ 27 ____ 2000 ___ 4.8 _ 6.2 _ 7.5 _____ 6.17 ________ 6.0

_t28 ____ 1903 ___ 4.2 _ 7.1 _ 7.1 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9

_t28 ____ 1920 ___ 5.2 _ 6.0 _ 7.2 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9

_t28 ____ 1948 ___ 5.4 _ 4.7 _ 8.3 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9

_t28 ____ 2008 ___ 6.7 _ 5.6 _ 6.1 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9

_ 32 ____ 1884 ___ 6.4 _ 5.3 _ 6.5 _____ 6.07 ________ 5.7

_ 33 ____ 1999 ___ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 7.3 _____ 6.03 ________ 5.6

_ 34 ____ 1761 ___ 5.4 _ 5.8 _ 6.8 _____ 6.00 ________ 5.5

__________________ 

1997 and 2012 were just below 6.0 due to one colder month (Jan 97, Feb 12)

 

 

Edited April 2 by Roger J Smith

[kold weather]

Just under the March average on the EWP now, so another above average mo nth is locked in.

At one point it looked like a modest above average but the models are turning increasingly unsettled again. Starting to look like another 100mm month is possible.

With that we may not be drastically behind March 23 (20-40mm?). It makes the rolling 12 month average record very possible given May-June last year were fairly below average and if just one I'd those months in 24 is wet it will probably seal the deal.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Where do we find Monthly sunshine stats?  This March must be now in contention of being in the unwanted list of least sunny Marches on record? 

Edited March 21 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[reef]

 Derecho 8.1C would make it joint-10th warmest so as suspected, it could be one of those months that's top 10 but really doesn't feel like it deserves it. It will be quite strange especially if we don't breach the 20C mark, which currently looks likely to be the case.

Its also worth noting that no year in those top 10 Marches has had a summer mean of more than 16.5C. That'll be another one to watch out for. 

[richie3846]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see  BlueSkies_do_I_see 

I'm not sure where good records can be found, but on the met office climate summaries, they state that March last year was the dullest for some counties, with many areas coming in under 50 hours, especially in southern England. We're around 50 hours already at Brize Norton and Lyneham this March, though I have no idea if other areas have been duller than this. I doubt we'll threaten any records given how dull it was last March, and even then I don't think that was a record, other than locally in several counties. 

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 20th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Scorcher]

 reef I did think that myself when looking at that list- some truly shocking summers in that top 10.

At least 1990 had that record-breaking heatwave in early August.

[Don]

15 hours ago, Derecho said:

I'd say a guess in the early 8s is looking good now.

Nah, surely a guess in the high 7's looks the best bet?!  

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.4C +1.5C above average. Rainfall 63.5mm 104.8% of the monthly average.

[snowray]

 Don

Ten of us have gone for 7.7c, 7.8c or 7.9c, them numbers are looking red hot!

[Roger J Smith]

20 Mar 2024 tied 1779 for daily mean (12.3) and edged out 2017 for high min (9.5).

Today looks a bit cooler than record values. Will probably be enough to push CET to 8.2 next report. 

2024 already sits at 3.5 daily mean records, top ten yearly counts are between 8 and 11. 

[Roger J Smith]

Looks to me like CET could end up around 7.6 to 7.9 and EWP 95-100 mm, will wait to see if EWP trend stays in same range before editing scoring table. 

 

[Scorcher]

Doesn't look too much of a cool down to me now at all.

Tomorrow is looking cooler but with that low looking like setting up to the W/SW of the UK next week we're likely to avoid any real incursion of Arctic air.

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 21st

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Methuselah]

 Summer Sun There goes my guess! 

[damianslaw]

Probably only a small drop in the days ahead, mid to high 7s likely finished.

Edited March 22 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

As trends are stable, I adjusted EWP scoring to 106 mm (several pages back now). Only a few wet forecasts improved scores, but most just dropped by a small amount. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.4C +1.5C above average. Rainfall 64mm 105.6% of the monthly average.

[WYorksWeather]

Definitely not looking like my guess will be too far off now (though probably slightly on the high side). I guess the key question is whether March will come in above February?

[reef]

8.3C to the 22nd, so we're already 0.2C above the prediction based on the models two days ago posted by @Derecho above.

We need about 7.2C in the remaining 9 days to finish on 8.0C.