summer blizzard

Not so. I have no problem being in a tshirt at 10C however I melt above 25C and I adore cold weather. My theory is that your body has a default preference dictated by childhood. Being a Scotsman I wonder if that explains my tolerance of cold over heat.

A perfect Autumn to me is one with a stormy October followed by a much more settled November. Perhaps Oct 00 and Nov 05.

Looks like a move to la Nina as well there.

Where does that rank?

The notion that the previous summers have been more of an anomaly than this month which will be around 2C above average is pretty funny. The previous summers have been anonymously wet but in regards to temperature this month beats them by a wide margin.

A valid point however my problem is with people talking as if the upgrade is guaranteed. It would not take much for the models to shift the high west.

Rose tinted glasses in here. The ecwmf looks great this run however it strengthens the low to the east and could easily lead to further retrogression in subsequent runs.

Possibly a large correction, Phillip Eden was 0.6C lower to the 10th.

I,m not so sure. The observed pattern for the last year or so has been that warm anomolies have persisted in the west but only ever making it to the surface and only during strong MJO events. Now that GLAAM has gone negative after a protracted positive spell and the PDO currently looks to lend itself to a negative phase once the warm anomolies near the Bearing are removed after refreeze I suspect that combination will prevent much surface emergence and apply negative pressure. As such I suspect that we will be looking at a neutral to weak la Nina.

Interesting setup. Pacific is still mixed but i suspect that the closer we get to winter the more we see the -PDO/-MEI development if things stay similar. Atlantic looks pretty horrid. Cooler tropical Atlantic temperatures may end up derailing the hurricane season but there's also an enhanced thermal gradiant with the +NAO tripole developing which could be interesting come Autumn.

Personally i'm glad, i don't have the money, time or social life to win over the fact its too hot. At least in 2006 i could sit in my garden smoking a sheesha and getting drunk.

Out of interested i just had a look at the CET records to find other summers which saw a <14C to >17C transition (possibly one of the largest?) from June and July to see what August produced. Since 1950 only 3 summers fit the bill... 1999 (13.9, 17.7, 16.1) 1991 (12.1, 17.3, 17.1) 1955 (13.8, 17.7, 18.1) It seems then (if we include 1991 despite the June CET being well below) that there's a slight bias towards an above average August here however the most recent analogue is the coolest.

Not sure if you have a microclimate there but Friday and Saturday certainly produced significant temperatures and i'm not that far from you.

As much as i would love the GFS6z to be correct i suspect the transition is too fast. At day 8 ECWMF, GFS and GEM do all show the high losing control to at least some degree however i suspect that rather than a big flip we will probably transition to a rather slack pattern lending itself to warm, thundery weather as opposed to the dream Scandi Trough. I'd say there's a 60% chance of being 18C+ and anybody going for less than 17.7C after adjustments should just give up now.

Probably a comibination of wind direction and high pressure, won't last long though as we look to increase humidity through the week. At my parents i did notice that humidity was around 70% on Saturday but had dropped below 40% yesterday.

Alright, I,m ready for autumn now. It,s too warm by day and night.

She's dead, open wave.

Very experimental but using the method i used for summer i get... September: 13.2C-14.9C October: 10.5C-11.9C November: 6.9C-7.7C And because we all want to know... December: 4.3C-5.4C

As i thought, we now have Tropical Depression 5. Track looks similar to prior systems and models don't think it will be more than a strong TS.

Looks like TD5 to me...

June CET was 13.6C which is within my range so pleased. Not so sure that i can rescue July though.

Most GFS ensembles take 97E on the same path as the other two.. Strength predictions are pretty bearish though, barely making it a hurricane.

Looks good from this weekend, especially the ensemble hints in about 2 weeks..

Posted in wrong thread... Nice low level rotation... As Mezz said in the other thread there are factors helping it.

Looks very similar to the spells we saw in the June's of 2005 and 2006 when i believe that Ireland did indeed pass 30C.