Ha, nope. I simply get the data, compile analogues, weight them, drop the highest and compile an average. I've not actually seen their forecast.
I've been reading about it and it looks like we could get a TS which i suppose is good for the time of year however the charts i was using for the ECWMF and GFS now require subscription (do you know of anything decent?) so i'm reliant on bits and bats. Yes, the MJO looks good into early July (hopes for an Emily 05 repeat) so we should be in luck for the next few weeks. Yes, the models suggested a stable atmosphere post Andrea well in advance.
My forecast takes into account the PDO, QBO, MEI and GLAAM. In this case the GLAAM, MEI and QBO were not disimilar to 1990 and 2004 in particular (they saw neutral-positive MEI) however the ENSO outlook is i think going to swing either side of neutral with building warm anomolies to the west, a PDO that's finally positive but an east Pacific that's a bit Nina ish.
Speak for yourself, i would be in heaven with a repeat. In terms of hurricane landfalls in Florida/US Gulf Coast 1990 had 0, 1995 had 3 (less than 20%) and 2004 had 4 (just over 25%) so we could either get a lot of strong FISH storms or 3/4 hurricane landfalls in Florida/Gulf Coast.