StormChaseUK

Nocturnal cooling doing its thing

Look how high the temps are in SW at nearly 11pm its 20C - no bad thing

NW wales

Oops pardon me just showing up now

Nothing showing on lightningmaps.org

Could be the dribs and drabs of the leftovers of the rain band moving North. I'd be looking to bristol or Cardiff somewhere to pop off the odd sharp red/purple echo.

Sferic has just fired off south of Ireland, not sure if error - source lightningmaps.org

Elevated storms often produce the best lightning. Plus with the added bonus of seeing them miles away because they are elevated.

I think this zone between 10pm and 4am will benefit from cooling interacting with that warmer air in the south moving up. Will be surprised if no Elevated storms occur in this area by morning.

Yes the east wales/shropshire area didn't quite have the "ooomph" to create lightning earlier, the skies were primed and ready but it resulted in heavy rain only. I think tonight as you get nocturnal cooling mixed with that humid atmosphere would be enough for 1 or 2 places to go bang.

Based on today, the GFS temps are I'm afraid to report, correct. So for the rest of the week I would be more inclined to believe those GFS surface outputs

No thunder recorded yet today. Very humid behind that rain band, feels tropical now. All depends if the destabilizing can take place this evening and tonight OR its just rain

Roads flooded now. Have stopped the car. Tail end was very nasty to that rain area moving north over wales.

Near craven arms shrops. Not surprised if this turns active soon.

Just came through heavy rain Chester Now near Shrewsbury, bone dry

I think Wales, West Midlands could see big storms this evening , tonight.

18z spooked with surface temps.

Yup what I said earlier today

Hmm good point, the old "shift east over into Belgium" card oh dear

I will find the archive charts, the 2014 July storms, formed over Hereford/Brecon location then drifted up over the Welsh Marches to Shrewsbury/Telford.

Not in 2014, I stayed up all night watching the lightning. Was no rain . Will be rain this week but elevated in nature, but I wouldn't be suprised to see people have storms without any rain too.

From 00z To 06z - GFS starting to envisage those warmer uppers.

06z GFS struggling to plot the overnight heavy rain. Elevated so not surprised.

Looks like 2 rounds of convection this week First round starting tomorrow as low trundles in, then heat pushes it back west , before it tries to come back in next week. Similar setup that gave Finland 33C or so a month ago, but back then we were the ground zero for the low. This time we get to enjoy the southern blast instead due to it being out west. Then later in week as the heat builds Both forms will be elevated I think, homegrown elevated. We are either used to surface based homegrown storms or elevated from France. So will make a nice change to form our own, (last good example July 2014) where West Midlands had quite potent elevated storms forming 1am - 4am , dry no rain but dramatic lightning, 2 nights in a row. Accas visible from 10pm onwards.

Looks like 2 rounds of convection First starting tomorrow as low trundles in, then heat pushes it back west , before it tries to come back in next week. Similar setup that gave Finland 33C or so a month ago but back then we were the ground zero for the low. This time we get to enjoy the southern blast instead due to it being out west. Then later in week as the heat builds Both forms will be elevated I think, homegrown elevated. We are either used to surface based homegrown storms or elevated from France. So will make a nice change to form our own, (last good example july 2014)