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StormChaseUK

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Everything posted by StormChaseUK

  1. StormChaseUK
    18z smoothes out the plume like spreading a thin layer of butter on toast. Less solid but spread out further. Basically 23-26C most days with scattered elevated storms until next sunday.
  2. StormChaseUK
    Agreed, the 18z will ramp it all up again. Subtle changes with the Low.
  3. StormChaseUK
    12Z GFS for Tuesday made my heart jump a little when it went from 26,27c'S to 18,19c. just model adjusting to the low , keep faith.
  4. StormChaseUK
    06z is good we are lucky to have warmth lasting that long in the UK. Originally it was meant to cool by friday but now warmth 25Cs stick around until following week. Very blessed
  5. StormChaseUK
    I think it's the cloud cover tbh. It will be a cloudy humid heat, not hot blazing one.
  6. StormChaseUK
    I think after a month of 14C cloud and drizzle , 34c next week will come as a shock to some people especially the elderly. Up until a few days ago I had the heating on/off various nights. Updates have been consistent so I don't see it stopping now. 30c+ 70, 80% likely next week.
  7. StormChaseUK
    00z upgrades the heat prolong until saturday One of the classics for uk weather coming up this week. Historic I think.
  8. StormChaseUK
    28c at 9am - incredible
  9. StormChaseUK
    Think bbc mean the loss of high pressure to a heat low (humid cloud oppressive) Looks like first wave downgrades slightly sun and mon. But in doing so allows the low to become stationary stuck, this will be what throws up that surge of heat from France. Tues to Fri could be cooking
  10. StormChaseUK
    Only by 1 or 2C nothing major It will ramp up the heat later in the week as the low stalls
  11. StormChaseUK
    18z has slightly, just slightly downgraded for sunday and monday
  12. StormChaseUK
    I don't see how 18Z can upgrade it any further , unless it prolongs it.
  13. StormChaseUK
    Yes a can of petrol doesn't do anything without a lit match. Certainly surface based convection is off the table
  14. StormChaseUK
    I question if warm 850 temps will cap the cooler surface air from the NE allowing mist/sea crag onto the east coast and cloud to drift inland = no storms We don't often get this setup so it's hard to figure out what will happen. Even the BBC are now tweeting 3 possible options, sort of pick and mix "you decide" forecast.
  15. StormChaseUK
    Yes I thought that, but this forecast was broadcast in last 20 minutes. I think it won't be until Saturday that we get the low position pinned down Well done on the new GFS for picking this up if this holds out.
  16. StormChaseUK
    That's good for Manchester really, On the models I tend to look at the 9am temperatures, position of Low next to Ireland, how far north 9am temperatures are. That time of day really is an indicator for weather 2 or 3 days around it.
  17. StormChaseUK
    I think the temps are probably about right. Those higher uppers will produce elevated heat storms, usually around the bath/somerset area/brecon beacons
  18. StormChaseUK
    You have to take into account the Beeb team like the Met team have to have meetings, produce reports, IT department construct the code/graphics and finalise what is on TV and or websites. So they will be behind any models by several hours. The forecasts this evening will most likely have the upgraded temps.
  19. StormChaseUK
    18z stalling the low out west a fraction, good news for heat build. July 2014 similar, gave hot days with elevated dry heat storms 2am to 4am
  20. StormChaseUK
    If everyone faces west and blows towards the low or place all fans westward full on It does seem very close down to the wire stuff, a shift of 50-70miles either way could mean 20C or 30C
  21. StormChaseUK
    The most amazing thing about the computer models is that it will only take a shift of 100 miles, and subtle balance next week to make June 2019 one of th greatest of all time for heat, or one of the worst of all time for entire month of wet, damp yucky weather. Like a giant atmospheric roulette wheel will it land on red heat or black rubbish.
  22. StormChaseUK
    18C west midlands during warm plume hmm.. heat that intense won't have clear defined line I think it was spill over/spread west as a larger area. see what 12z brings. But I think you will be looking at 25, 26C West Midlands, Mon - Thur at very least.
  23. StormChaseUK
    June 2019 if next week came off is a bit like an arcade machine, pays nothing out then all of a sudden £50 in one go
  24. StormChaseUK
    If you are at Glastonbury from 25th it could be very hot to start with then cooler towards weekend, but storms may trigger off
  25. StormChaseUK
    The ECM following suit , Finland had record breaking heat so it's possible. All it needs is the low in the right position.
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