StormChaseUK

18z doing its T-800 act again. There were hopeful signs in earlier run it really looked like summer was about to take hold around the 10th June onwards. Maybe it will shift back but also maybe we will be here on 1st September still waiting for summer. We reached 26C today top temp but that doesn't mean much at the moment if green machine sits over us

Summer install fail 2019 not compatible please upgrade to OS version 2020. September and October not compatible

18z has just terminated Summer. I was hoping I was wrong earlier today and I still hope summer will return in July/August but at this rate.. strewth

I think that's what people are missing, when it is 35C+ just over the channel and 11C in Wales it WILL be cool and cloudy. It's not going to be warm and lovely here, thats how the setup is generating the hot weather over Europe because we are the power cell and low pressure to drive such conditions. Obviously things may improve in June and we have a great July/August but we really are opening the shop at 4pm in the afternoon and wondering why it's not busy. The nights start drawing in in about 3 weeks time!

Looks like a cool cloudy dry summer ahead. Lack of rain is concerning

I'm not buying the 18z glitches Aberystwyth would be about 10C and drizzle on the same day as 40C in Belgium gradient that steep so close is impossible for Europe

We are so on the edge that I think this is more models failing to calculate correctly than the "cool pool" some are worrying about. 10-14C temp different with a shift in a few miles would either be huge thunderstorms or wrong calc. I'm optimistic and think we will see a plume within 10 days and somewhere will see 28+ over next 10 days.

That boundary is what creates the "thundery activity" we need those ingredients - 06z will improve

Will await 06z but the gfs looks ok to me cant complain, you have to have those rollercoaster of highs and lows to draw up warm air then displaced with cool, repeat..

Big landmass though, Russia is usually 25-30C in June/July

I don't think I have seen a better chart than that for summer.

My suspicions were correct, a plume next Sunday with overnight or evening storms. Breaking the weather for a week before a reload. Typical summer weather cant complain

I reserve judgement until 18z

Blip don't worry

Good persisting signs of "summer warmth from south" don't want to jinx it by using the plume word just yet.

Yes the plume is holding on each run.. And perfect time of year to have one too !

Yes the updates keep the warming trend with a plume of warm air, or push of warm air from the south. And considering the patterns we have been having were stagnant, we could be in a plume setup that lasts for several days (reserve that excitement for now)

18z GFS offers hope for first week of June Will bank the 18z

Living through storms in the 80's to 1994 period I can confirm there would be a plume almost every May during that time. With various French imports during July-August period.

Perfect summer synoptics, Iberian low pressure, high pressure over UK - really old school 80/90s

........ there are no words

18z GFS a bit touch and go if summer starts , we really are getting to the stage where 25c+ should be cropping up on maps but the blues and greens are just not letting go of the 15-17c range. Just yet anyway

iN Interesting a low forming over Spain due to cooler air moving south. - good ingredients there

12z Heading in right direction - that SW pull of warmer weather is clinging on and refuses to go away. Good signs

18z certainly keeps going back to the early June plume option