StormChaseUK

06Z shows models are struggling long term and anything chop and change that far ahead. Stunning end to 06

Nights start drawing in soon, seriously though either the models are getting it wrong longer term or we have in for a "meh" summer. Doesn't help the lack of rain and water levels - would be different if we had hot sunshine but to just have cloud and cool north plunges and dry is the most useless type of weather that suits neither man or earth. Looking back at the model archive we had a few cool plunges in 92 that alternated between that and plumes (rollercoaster of up/down so if it was a few weeks of cool that would turn lead to few weeks of heat) At the moment we are stuck in the down, down repeat phase. You get front loaded summers and back loaded, worst case scenario we go from cool northerly to Atlantic weather and rain with no high pressure / or plumes at all.

Everytime warm air tries to build that F%%^&ing B&^&%^$d Cold pool comes down from the North

I have a feeling we are going to be looking at charts hoping a plume comes .... in November

Near Knighton, Powys

Don't worry about June, look to July August.

The 18z this evening could throw a surprise I think

Gav thinks June will be hot. Short term and Long term models differing

06z doesn't inspire much, looks like a back loaded summer with July/August hopefully better. 1992 May and June were rubbish then it picked up well in July, August.

The models are very unpredictable at the moment, last nights 18z had 26c, now 00z has 10c anything after 3 or 4 days is pushing it

Collective *sigh of relief* can be heard all around this morning. Much better GFS 06z

Crewe is a good location at moment

Just to give an idea of the hazy sun in midlands at moment

The sun has just started to blaze through in East Wales/West Midlands . I expected cloud cover today hampering things, but this looks quite promising.

Showers forming over Brecon Beacons

Similar to summer thunderstorms, we have a developing in situ process. Don't lose heart.

All starting to destablise now, a strike of SW Wales, and Lyme Regis. As that front pushes in.

Looks likes a similar pattern cools down bit in the week then hot weekends.

Models don't know what to do about next week it seems

Hosepipe ban weather outputs on the 06z

Looks like a very warm/hot Wimbledon & British Grand Prix

Surface based is always less active than mid level fireworks

Finally I think we have reached the tipping point where enough ingredients are there.. cell sw of Hereford is getting going now

The storms last week had the heat over France/Germany to power them, that heat has now shifted further east https://en.sat24.com/en

I think a lot of the clag is surpressing the ability of lightning to get going.