StormChaseUK

Have you tried a dehumidifier?

There are a lot of good ingredients at the moment, moisture, moisture on the ground. All it needs is the heat to convect like the tropics

Yes the most severe ones will just spark out of thin air literally. Think 2015 and 2006 (Rugby was the case)

From experience elevated needed a good degree of warmth/heat to back it in the atmosphere, not so much near ground level/or channel as water didn't really impact them.. But that heat had to be there. The elevated storms I have had always followed 1 or 2 days of 25-27C's apart from 2001 when severe overnight elevated storms happened after a day of 10C and chilly drizzle, but they introduced 25C temps the following day. Elevated require good backing in front of it, and or behind it. if it gets neither then they won;t happen.

Interesting not seen the second map/lightning prediction before is that new?

We are in a better position now with the biscay low pumping up hotter area. Previously hotter air has just filtered east with the UK acting as the Biscay style low. When France heats up we usually do get some overspill

Some serious heat in France next week - look how close it comes to the UK , would only take a slight shift .. Some parts of northern France are 33C at 9am and 40C by 3pm I don't see how heat of this power can get so close without influencing our weather at all .

Do you celebrate Christmas in March?

That is a huge temperature difference. In winter that would be 20C in France minus 5 in UK

18z offering the 50th switcheroo of the summer. Plume that will turn to northerly 12C like it did the last 49 times lol .. not buying it

GFS overdoing it I would say. At least 14C or 15C . Notice derek from the bbc has just said on Twitter that this is the coldest June for 141 years officially. So GFS might not be wrong

18z builds high pressure everywhere uk still lower pressure

18z hmm looks like we are turning a corner. The heat northern europe /Russia had is finally giving way.. good sign

Marvelous to see the jet move north. Things are looking a lot more positive now

12z GFS offering upgrade in the warmth Wednesday

so we have gone from being selective about the nature of discussion, to selective on what type of model

Interesting that the JMA is showing a return to northern blocking for early July

Hmm yes I see your point. If it was scientific output only, there would only be 2 or 3 posting - If there are no limitations then you get more people visiting, everyone posts but that dilutes the scientific side.

Yesterday the rainfall for here in June is 99.3mm so far. In 2012 (that awful year) at the same point it was 83mm so we are on course to beat June 2012 for a bad summer.

Maybe have a sticky of exactly what posters are required to post or limited access only. It's a catch 22 or no win for some Poster: I disagree with the XXz GFS output it looks like a terrible summer Reply: This is model output only it.s not like 2012 do not discuss this go to XYZ discussion instead. Poster: XXz GFS shows heatwave in 9 days time Reply: That is FI , it won't verify go to XYZ discussion instead. I think the awkward bit is between those that are academic/theoretical interest of models scientifically and those that are also interested in model output but are more historically interested in model discussion, past events, rainfall recording, past summers, 2012 etc. I only just noticed this thread in General discussion today - so I will post there I think for more general rants about summer Unless I have missed it somewhere , there needs to be a "scientific model thread" and "general chat model thread"

The GFS 00z ends on a back to square one note.

I said the same about June in May and was laughed at

Yup. As the old phrase goes what goes up.. must come down. Hot rising air descends and we will endure wet cool weather well into July I think.

I don't think these conditions could occur in January the excessive rainfull is being driven by heat over Europe/East