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Everything posted by karyo
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Fantastic idea!- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I would discount the years just before a solar maximum as there is some lag time involved (although I am not sure how long that is). Also, those years were well before the global warming era.- 1,521 replies
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Model Output Discussion; into 2015
karyo replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree there are positive signs in the outlook but I fear there won't be a sustained change. We have seen last months the models overamplify the pattern and all we got was a sinking high. -
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
karyo replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You are welcome but it is easy to focus on something positive on the output and ignore the rest of the picture. This is why LRFS so often fail and this winter is another example of that. -
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
karyo replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The trend of the stratospheric warming easing and the polar vortex reforming? -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
There will always be exceptions. Maybe other factors in 78/9 managed to cancel the effects of the solar maximum. Solar activity is not just going to drop like a stone. Only a gradual lowering is expected over the coming years so it could be a long wait for a cold winter like 2008/9, 2009/10, 2010/11 . Cold spells can still happen of course.- 1,521 replies
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
karyo replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It is worth pointing out that the GFS stratospheric forecasts look worse than a few days ago so not much optimism for a sustained cold spell. -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Maybe he got carried away like Chris Fawkes with his tweets. But yes, something is working against the stratosphere and is also preventing the MJO from progressing in the 7 and 8 phase this year.- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That's why we need a SSW or a more significant warming at least. I suppose we could focus on the MJO but that's for another thread.- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That's dreary especially combined with the gfs stratospheric output which shows a re-organisation of the vortex.- 1,521 replies
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Raining here but the system is moving southeastwards quite fast. According to the radar it should start drying up in about an hour. Hopefully it will give some snow on the Pennines before it clears.
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Model Output Discussion; into 2015
karyo replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It was November then and we had all winter ahead of us. Now we don't have that luxury. -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes, it is annoying not to have the Berlin forecasts but the GFS doesn't look that great in terms of the Atlantic warming. If anything, it seems to have downgraded it somewhat in todays runs - no dark orange colour at the 30hpa level.- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It is a shame that the warming over the Atlantic and Greenland is quite brief. The vortex split is a blink and you miss it affair and then the vortex re-organises over Greenland again. Then there is an Asian warming towards the end of the run but we've had similar warmings there recently and they haven't benefited us at all, if anything they tend to push the vortex towards us which prevents any meaningful blocking to develop.- 1,521 replies
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Model Output Discussion; into 2015
karyo replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Only the 3rd chart looks cooler to me as the Azores high deflates allowing the low pressure to dig further south. Of course, that's in the 384 hour range which is not likely to verify. -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That doesn't sound promising.- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
So if he is right (or has access to data we don't) then the models should start showing a renewed split very soon.- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thanks. I wonder where does he see the SSW.- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Is this a new statement from him or the one made a few days ago?- 1,521 replies
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Double digits tomorrow. Get ready for the Atlantic!
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I would say that an early January SSW is unlikely but some warming is still taking place and we have to see whether this can help us somewhat. A SSW may still take place but that's more likely in the second half of January or early February.- 1,521 replies
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
karyo replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Despite the recent warmings, the stratospheric temperatures at the 50hpa level are around average. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_50_2014_merra.pdf It will be interesting to see whether the next warming can edge those temperatures up a bit. The 6z GFS P enhances the warming which edges even more towards parts of Greenland.- 1,521 replies
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Model Output Discussion; into 2015
karyo replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Last winter felt like a wet and windy spring to me. My location missed the stormiest of the weather so there was nothing notable and yes it was mild. -
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
karyo replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I hope so bluearmy but it seems to me that something more significant is needed to knock the vortex out. If I was in eastern Europe or even as far southeast as Greece and Turkey I would be more optimistic as even a bit of amplification in the jet leads to potent cold blasts (like it happens currently and also another cold shot is forecasted there next week) but for us here things look very unfavourable with the Azores high glued south of the UK. The only good thing I guess is that the warming this side is on our side of the hemisphere (Atlantic) which should be better than those Asian warmings that have just pushed all the energy to our side so far. -
Model Output Discussion; into 2015
karyo replied to martthefart's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's the worst news of the day! The wait continues and it is going to be a long one.