damianslaw

We've had a meredional jet for much of 2022, any zonal flow has been very short lived and the background state hasn't changed, I would not be surprised to see a flip to settled, once the flow pushes east, as said think this is the trigger, we need the zonality to shake things to a more La Nina state.. keep an eye on the azores high, one positioned further west indicates the change.

As said a day of pulses of heavy rain, we have one right now, quite miserable and its not very mild either, current temp an average 11.5 degrees.

Wouldn't be surprised to experience a freak exceptionally cold winter not before long, against the background warming, to make us think..what's gping on.. a bit like Dec 10, but will be the exception.

Rain band has cleared through, but forecast is for more longer bursts through the day. One of those frustrating days where you think its stopped but it comes back. Its the last 'lighter' day of the season, make the most of the light lingering to 5.45- 6pm.. tomorrow it will half 4/4.45.

The jet does appear to be digging south on this chart, the azores high is being pulled west, the low could swing SE with strong ridge building behind.. indeed probably nedds a burst of zonal weather to get to somethimg more settled and blocky.. deeper lows allow for stronger ridges..

Its the opposite to expected La Nina imprint, which really does seem to be outflanked by other factors last couple of years, should have ridge to west and trough to east. Alas there is a path to this scenario, should the azores high link over the top with the trough cut off and shunted south, heights then transfer west... the high to the NE needs to ridge further west though for this to happen.

Think there are short memories here, late Feb 18 easterly was quite exceptional, April 21 was one of coldest minima wise on record, yes chances of cold seem slimmer, but they haven't gone away completely. Reading some posts on here, may need to start a winter moan thread before its started!

Yes there are comparisons with the extreme mildness of late Dec, not many foresaw the very dry quite chilly lenghty high pressure spell that set in during January. Came as a surprise to me.

Always think winter takes until christmas to show its true hand.. i.e. the worst cold most likely thereafter, and the base state sets in, either cold or mild.

GFS 18z pulling in colder polar air to the north at least next weekend. Jetstream also heading further south, sign of heights being kicked further west, whicg could be the trigger to something colder and more settled once the trough swings east. However, the models are throwing out alot of different output around 8-10 day range, and I continue to think because there is a pattern change on the cards but they are not settling yet on how things will pan out. May well take a week or so for things to be clearer.

I feel we came unlucky this October, a west based NAO set up and we remained on the warm side of the jet, combined with very little ex tropucal storm activity to shake things up. The colder second half to Sept came courtesy of ex tropical storm activity.

Yes there were some cold Bonfire Nights in the 80s, 1985 springs to mind, but I suspect many a mild one as well. Childhood memories are obscured by memorable events and times.. apart from 1981 all our 80s christmas days were snowless for example, indeed often very mild!

ECM shows warm air advection and a big high would probably develop over scandi just afterwards..

2020-21 was seasonal though with a cold April-May.

Short term yes, but medium term it pulls in colder polar air for a time, begore far reaches powers up the atlantic on a westerly with no sign of high pressure on the scene. More importantly though are the brief ridges setting in during next few days, suggesting the atmosphere wants to settle down.

A very pleasant late October day. Some sunshine and light winds and dry, very useable. Overall a decent half term week despite some rain and drabness at times, some year's have been a washout and stormy, and rarely ever that cold. Weekend looking mixed, tomorrow quite poor with heavy rain, Sunday more showery but still very mild at least. Not enthused by this October apart from the warmth its been preety non eventful. Hoping November is much more seasonal at least with frost and cold days, snow always a bonus but not to be expected really.

Good to see snow build in scandi, a better sign for potential wintry fayre here than snow building south througg central russia.. 2009 delivered a similiar pattern I recall.

Perhaps it well take a freezing easterly to bring it down! The deeping of the trough in mid atlantic reason why, this year has seen the jet split on many occasion with cut off lows to our SW, or just digging far south to our west for some reason promoting heights to build to the east of it, the UK has by and large sat at the boundary line meaning the airstream has been predominantly due south and west.. as a consequence of the block to the east and south east.. if such a pattern held sway, the block would in time become colder and we may exchange the mild theme for something much colder.. trough disruption the order of the day..

Keep the faith! Don't get that sinking feel!

The longevity of warmth on the continent has been exceptional this year it seems. An omen came in May when Spain and Portugal had a early injection of heat, since then its been repeat episodes.. and the cooldown has been very slow. We've had very slow moving patterns this year, blocks have held the atlantic at bay, certainly the jetstream has been very weak and diffuse. Low pressure held out to our west all year most of the time. Answers on a postcard for the lack of oomph to the jet? Benn the case since Dec 20.. we've had similiar periods in the past I guess..

Yes reading between lines looks the case, probably heights building in from the south to centre over the UK as we move through mid Nov, probably cold nights and average temps by day, but would at least feel more seasonal than the silly warmth we have now. November can be a miserable dull wet month, a high overhead would be most welcomed. Always a chance could then migrate to a more favourable position for notable cold come December, or just sink away south!..

November possibly most miserable of them all, especially if not a fan of the run up to christmas! By Jan glimmer of light at the end of a long tunnel, but November the tunnel just gets blacker!

Yes seems a case the atlantic trough becoming unstuck against the imprenetable euro heights, at times it may inch east through the UK before being pushed west again.. need some sort of major shake up to bring colder drier conditions.. the output shows no clear path to such change... yet at least.. is there a brick wall in the N Sea?

Yes I'm in a similiar circumstance, but it's still a shock regardless. Agree it's the Monday you notice it most rather than Sunday. Need to make most of lunchtime breaks, essential to get out and about..

2 evenings left before we switch to winter mode..