Climate Man

I once heard that if you stood up out of crouch at the first bend it would flip you on your back. The are certainly going some as I stood on that bend for a practice session. Always seem to get to practice, done a few but never seen an actual race.

Saw a practice day, went up on a chairlift with a Bell brother, but then after standing freezing on the day, they called the actual race off. Can't remember why as it was 20 odd years ago. What a backdrop though.

Depending on how you define cold. Mean air temp may well be below average, therefore cold.

Can't edit. Should read above average

Standard mix but not temperatures. I am running almost 3 deg above average to date!

It was,remember commenting on it and saying it would move come winter

I received some grief in the model output thread earlier but backed off as it was the wrong thread. I suggested that professional forecasters get it wrong and that you should not always defer to them and on occasion NW members may be more accurate. One occasion....20 years ago I was living in Warwickshire and working in Hereford. I visited Farnborough Airshow and was excited to visit the METO stand and talk about the forecast output that they had. I suggested that in two days there would be some exceptional rain in the Welsh Borders based on their data. They laughed at me. Two days later I failed to get to work due to floods. Just an example. Yes they have better data, yes they have more training (not always more experience) but are far from perfect. Since they do not tend to give detailed forecasts beyond a week it is not possible to compare with NW member ideas. They defer to climatology. Just don't ever put all your eggs in a basket just because it's their job. Amateur input has its place.

Coolest and driest since 2016 at my Warwickshire weather station. Warm autumn countered a cold spring .

Anyway, back to the models. There does still seem to be greater levels of uncertainty, particularly at a micro scale. The form horse seems to be a wintry mix for the rest of this week with most weather types possible at times. Next week the signal is for high pressure to build close to the UK and,as in December, exact location will be vital - frost, fog, cold, snow.....several days needed for any clarity.

To be fair my main point was that the Pros are pretty much at the mercy of the vagaries of the weather as we are. Their performance can be appalling at times and you should not always bow to them over experienced members here. The big difference is that the Pros interpretation has to be cautious whereas we can put our necks on the block.

Not sure this argument holds water. I fully agree that immediate prospects are not good, though we may have mid latitude high bringing frosty weather by this time next week. You talk about the failure before Christmas, it was not just publicly available models and netweather forecasters. You want to put your faith in the pros. METO was consistently predicting below average temperatures after Xmas and into the NY, yet we had a record high on New Year's Day. The beauty of British weather is that FI is generally only a few days away, even if you are a professional.

Let the hunt begin!

Met you once at the Royal Show. What an institution you have been. Many thanks for your service to meteorology.

The Butterfly Effect!

Ties in with Meto Outlook though.

Bit like climate change. Can predict 100 years but not Saturday. About trends I guess!?

Accused you of being too negative a week or so ago but think we really ate at the end if the road. However, all to play for post Christmas.

On a brighter note, the west Oberian/Aszores high has been pushed south in the last 24 hrs.

Just thrown in the towel and told family and friends to expect cold rain, in spite of UKMO. That should sort it but time for a break.

Bang in line with BBC forecast

Have to agree. 150 miles south east would do the job. Would take 100 miles if offered it now. The post Christmas possibilities are fascinating not only from a cold point of view but fron a general meteorological point if view.

Wrong on both accounts. Temperature almost certainly below average. Possibly snow and Meto going for cold NY and start of January.

From Scandi High to Mr Bartlett in two runs. Just shows it's not worth getting het up about.

I'm 55 and never see snow falling Christmas Eve except on holiday in the Alps. Certainly snow away from costal areas and an upgrade.

Welcome to the mad House.