Washout winter/spring, then BBQ Summer

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Can someone give me some hope here.

Which years have seen a turnaround in May after a soggy start to the year? 

I heard someone mention 2006. Is that a good example?

[B87]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see 1983, 1995, 2006 and 2018 all fit.

[Catbrainz]

2013 and 2018 pop to mind for me. 

[Cwmbran Eira]

Interesting record here. 

https://twitter.com/TheSnowDreamer/status/1760007597913190455

Interesting summer that followed the previous record though, some hope maybe. 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/Summer-1959.htm

[damianslaw]

 B87 1983 saw a poor May I think.. 1995 was episodic, 2006 sort of fits the bill but a month of two halves, and it came on the back of a very dry winter, 2018 probably the best fit, winter 17-18 wasn't all that wet though.

2013 the dry warm theme arrived in July not May.

Very few recent examples really. 

 

[raz.org.rain]

2018 is probably the more recent and classic example. I sure we saw some late season snow in 2018 too, but I don't remember much about that spring.

[summer blizzard]

2006 only had a wet March and May and even then, only the second half of March. Summer 2006 was really just the culmination of a dry period starting in November 2004.

I don't remember much of late 2017 but I'm not really sure that March and April were even regarded as wet. 

2013 was not really a wet period. Jan may have been regarded as wet but here in West Yorkshire I went 20 days without precipitation in February. March was not that wet and neither was the spring or June.

It's interesting that both September 2013 and 2006 both ushered in wet periods for the next year.

I tend to believe there's no real link between the spring weather and summer. The most convincing theory I read was plumes in spring are more indicative.

[damianslaw]

 summer blizzard 1995 produced a plume or two in Spring, notably early May. 

The heat around 18/19 April 2018 was a plume I think.

[MP-R]

The longer this garbage goes on for into the spring, the better I would want autumn to be, even after a bbq summer. If April ends up being dull and wet too, all eyes on October to lengthen the sunny warm conditions. I just prefer it when the sun is summer strength in April, not autumn strength in October.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

You won't hear the Met Office muttering anything about barbecue summers after what happened in 2009..

Weather wars at the Met Office: Is it going to be a 'barbecue summer'

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

Adam Scaife has a tricky job: long-range forecaster at the Met Office

 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 MP-R I feel the same. We often get better, more settled conditions, and more usable weather in October and even sometimes early November than we do in March and April. 

Which is a shame because I much prefer warm and sunny days in March and April than I do in October / November. The longer daylight hours and spring vibe is far superior IMO over the lower level and lower strength Autumn sun. 

[B87]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see I don't know why they call it a bbq summer anyway. I find that most summers, you can bbq every weekend if you wanted to, or plan one 2-3 weeks in advance and not have it disrupted due to weather. Only in 2007 or 2012 style summers would that be an issue.

[damianslaw]

 In Absence of True Seasons Perhaps from a London perspective, on average April is far more settled than October in the Lake District, many a year it is our driest month, whilst October can be and often is the wettest. April marks the start of our mini dry season that implodes by the summer solstice. A wet April bodes very bad for here. We've had bone dry April's but never a bone dry October. 

Edited March 31 by damianslaw

[hillbilly]

For me the standout was 1989,having endured 4 and a half years of wet weather and poor summers and still bogged down trying to work in the fields with the tractors that April the switch around to hot and dry was truely remarkable.

[raz.org.rain]

 hillbilly funnily enough didn't that also coincide with a flip from a strong El Niño to a strong La Niña?

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I never really noticed the poor summers of the mid eighties, being a young kid. Was happy as long as I could climb the trees and kick a ball down at the local boys club.

I do however remember Ayr Butlins summer 1985. It never stopped raining that trip. 

I remember 1990 was a good year. Decent summer and plenty of snow in early Dec in the East Midlands where I was living at the time!

[summer blizzard]

 raz.org.rain That was 1988.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Cwmbran Eira reading Philip Eden's account of 1959, it sounds a great summer, though drought conditions aren't good for arable either.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 damianslaw That makes sense. Also corroborates my own experiences when visiting the Lake District (mid-April, mid-May and mid-July). 

I didn't get a single drop of rain on my 4 day trip in April (2022), and my long weekend in May (2019) was mostly sunny and dry also. 

July however (2020) was an absolute washout with nearly 48 hours solid of drizzle that soaked through all our waterproof hiking clothes It was only when we were leaving and on our way north to Scotland that the sun came out...

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 summer blizzard you expecting this summer to be like 1973, 1995 and 2016? You could put 2007 in there but 2007 had an east QBO which I believe was the skurge with that particular summer and AAM dropped significantly when it came down to June onwards.   Also the Rihanna featuring Jay z record with umbrella was a major curse with summer 2007, at least it was a season to look at with good humour albeit not so good for homeowners who got flooded out literally and there was a record number in insurance claims that year too.    

 

 

[summer blizzard]

 Addicks Fan 1981

Best matches are 1954, 2007, 2010 however there are no good recent PDO matches given that we in an exceptional -PDO cycle currently. 

 

[reef]

 raz.org.rain All of the best recent summers have had neutral ENSO conditions for the June, July, August quarter, aside from 2022 which was a weak La Nina:

1976: +0.2 from a strong La Nina
1983: +0.3 from a very strong El Nino
1989: -0.3 from a strong La Nina
1995: -0.2 from a moderate El Nino
1996: -0.3 from a moderate La Nina
2003: +0.1 from a moderate El Nino
2005: -0.1 from a weak El Nino
2006: +0.1 from a weak La Nina
2013: -0.4 from neutral conditions
2018: +0.1 from a weak La Nina
2022: -0.8 from a moderate La Nina

Quite a strong correlation.

Poorer summers tend to cluster around El Nino or La Nina conditions but there is not a great correlation either way (1988, 2007 and 2011 were all La Nina but then 2012 was neutral).

Its one factor of many to consider, but having a neutral state cant hurt it seems. The current forecast for JJA this year does actually suggest close to neutral aswell.

[B87]

 summer blizzard Guaranteed horror show of a summer then. 1954 probably the worst summer ever imaginable. 2007 was awful, 2010 was nice in the first half, 2nd half diabolical.

[damianslaw]

 reef What was summer 98? Transition to strong la nina.. 

[BruenSryan]

 summer blizzard  damianslaw

"I don't remember much of late 2017 but I'm not really sure that March and April were even regarded as wet."

Really  you don't think 176% and 145% of average rainfall is wet hem?