Hurricane Rita.

[Weatherwatcher]

All the conditions are right.

TX/LA border for me too for landfall.

Rita just looks so 'perfect'. Everything about her has been, from her path through the Florida straits to her beeline for the warmest waters on the GOM. In a weeks time we could all be talking about the 'perfect' hurricane?

Edited September 21, 2005 by Weatherwatcher

[i luv snow]

i can see every ones point here, i believe we will still have quite a bit of development in the next few hours, i definately reckon we already have a category 5, and this is certainly going to very interesting to watch! (well it already is very interesting, but may get even more so :huh: )

Edited September 21, 2005 by i luv snow

[matmilne]

i can see every ones point here, i believe we will still have quite a bit of development in the next few hours, i definately reckon we already have a category 5, and this is certainly going to very interesting to watch!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yep a 4 already and could easily hit 5 before landfall in texas, new orleans will deffinately get something, maybee even enough to overwhelm its defences.

[P.K.]

Yeah P.K. Appears to be 4 Hurricane Hunter planes on the go plus an additional US Navy aircraft. So info/data should come through regularly - big change from this morning when all the aircraft had electrical faults and were grounded!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Currently the AF300 and NOAA3 are in this system. I'm expecting an upgrade in the next advisory.

[kold weather]

Weatherwatcher,I thought they described Katrina as the perfect storm,looks like it may get a close rival just a month later,so much for Katrina being a 1-1000 year event eh Mondy :huh: two such powerful GOM storms in just one month though reaching cat-5 is very rare,heck theres only really Camille that can be thought as a super-powerful hurricane in the Gulf with very high winds,but looks like both Katrina and now possibly Ritta will reach 170mph in the gulf,but then again with sea's so above average and the synoptic pattern the way it is,thats hardly suprising!

I agree P.K,there is very little option for the NHC not to upgrade Rita to a cat-5,the second offical one of the season,infact has there been a season with two cat-5's in one season(also with Emily could there have been a third with winds of 158mph recorded???)

Edited September 21, 2005 by kold weather

[londonsnow]

Currently the AF300 and NOAA3 are in this system. I'm expecting an upgrade in the next advisory.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

wonder if they'll mention a slight shift to the wnw, definitely looks look it on the most recent loop

[MAF]

latest IR sat pic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

Edited September 21, 2005 by sesnow1

[pinball wizard]

latest IR sat pic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Whats the latest pressure in mb?

[kold weather]

:huh:

Okay finally offical news about Rita being as what we all have expected...a cat-5:

000

WTNT63 KNHC 211955

TCUAT3

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.

Pressure will probably be down to sub-910 if this is the case I suspect as was Ivan when it reached this strength.This may well become as strong as Katrina...didn't think I'd say that this season!!!

Winds peaking out at 170-180mph looks very probable now I think,with every possiblty of it surpassing Katrina in terms of pressure if it vcan keep going,and maybe evn Allen and become only the 4th hurrricane to go sub-900 :huh:

Wow,this season really is an amazing one,certainly once in a liftime i would have thought,two hurricanes at 165mph at the least,well who would have thoughKatrina might be topped just a few days ago,no-one I think would be the answer!

Edited September 21, 2005 by kold weather

[summer blizzard]

Southern Florida looks to be getting a real soacking from Hurricane Rita, it must of been raining there for at least 24 hours, and still is, flooding is a real possibility.

[Weatherwatcher]

This is pretty exciting (sad?!) just watching how quickly Rita is strengthening but thoughts go out to all those in TX.

How strong can she get? Doesnt she have two full days left without any land intervention with the warmest waters to come?

Edited September 21, 2005 by Weatherwatcher

[kold weather]

From Steve M in another thread,worth putting up here as its got some good info:

Evening All-

Well it happening now and its in the rapid intensification stage-

As Rita moves in the mid gulf it moves into a zone called the heat loop-

The heat loop basically desribed is-

'The intensification of tropical cyclones involves a combination of

different favorable atmospheric conditions such as atmospheric trough

interactions and vertical shear, which lead to good outflow conditions

aloft. As a result of this, inflow conditions in the near-surface layer are

enhanced. Clearly, as this process continues over the scale of the storm,

the upper ocean provides the heat to the atmospheric boundary layer and the

deepening process. In this scenario, the upper ocean thermal structure has

been thought to be a parameter that only played a marginal role in tropical

cyclone intensification. However, after a series of events where the sudden

intensification of tropical cyclones occurred when their path passed over

oceanic warm features, it is now being speculated that it could be

otherwise. While the investigation of the role of these rings and eddies is

a topic of research in a very early stage, preliminary results have shown

their importance in the intensification of hurricane Opal.Therefore, the

monitoring of the upper ocean thermal structure has

become a key element in the study of hurricane-ocean interaction with

respect to the prediction of sudden tropical cyclone intensification. These

warm features, mainly anticyclonic rings and eddies shed by the Loop

Current, are characterized by a deepening of several tens of meters of the

isotherms towards their centers and with different temperature and salinity

structure than the surrounding waters. '

So far I would say the intensity of Rita has been underestimated, and with

the addition enhancement of the heat loop from the upper ocean heat content

(UOHC) and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) from altimetry then a

storm more powerful than Katrina could be observed in the gulf-

If the storm can intensify to a stage where it retains strength through

Concentric eyewall cycles then record breaking gusts well over 200 MPH

could be observed-

The *very* latest obs show a 11mb drop in 105 mins-

and may outdo- Katrinas 902 MB- even dipping under 900-

Once out of the heat loop Rita will begin to weaken, however she still

could hit land ( track estimates a hit on Port O'Conner and Freeport early

Saturday)

However at this rate even a weak 5 could be on the scale with a storm surge

over 20 meters....

Trust me this is a beast.....

worried-

Steve

[smich]

The loops are definately showing a turn northwards - this is certainly earlier than expected. Like kw says, such a big system will be wanting to spin northwards even more, and the nearer it is to NO at landfall...

However, that would be a much shorter trip for Rita, so an eyewall cycle now might not leave enough time to re-build...?

The eye certainly looks tiny now, but that's just because the storm itself has grown so much!

Steve M

[MediaHype]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/EVENTS/EG63.JPG

Amazing latest WV sat pic on the 19.15 run

No MediaHype needed for this beast

[Nick F]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane...ns.asp?site=atl

As of 4:00 PM EDT Wednesday, Rita is packing sustained winds of 165 mph with gusts to 185 mph; this makes Rita a category 5 hurricane. This is the season's second catastrophic hurricane. As of 2:00 PM EDT Rita was centered near 24.3 north and 86.2 west, or 745 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas The minimum central pressure has fallen to 920 millibars (27.17 inches of mercury). Rita was moving to the west at 14 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center of circulation. Given that Rita is on the verge of becoming a category 5 hurricane the wind field will probably expand further later today.

Rita will continue to track westward through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon and night with further strengthening expected as it crosses the same warm waters that helped Katrina strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane. So, it is no surprise that this hurricane has become a catastrophic hurricane.

Rita will generally track to the west as an upper-level high pressure ridge over Texas expands eastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The track that Rita takes will depend on how this high moves, weakens and strengthens. We currently expect this upper ridge of high pressure to remain strong and steer Rita on a general westerly course across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday night into Thursday. Then we expect the high to either split or move eastward causing Rita to move west-northwest early Friday then more northwestward Friday night and Saturday. We are estimating landfall between Galveston and Corpus Christi sometime between 6 p.m. on Friday and 6 a.m. Saturday. Ocean water analysis shows some cooler water in place about 300 miles off the Texas coast, then warmer water again right near the Texas coast in our primary projected landfall area, so the intensity forecast at landfall will be a real challenge. After Rita makes landfall, it will head northwest between Austin and Houston then track between Dallas and Tyler Sunday. We expect hurricane force winds to spread over a large area of eastern Texas after landfall. In fact high rise buildings in the Houston area could experience wind gusts to near 100 mph.

Edited September 21, 2005 by Nick F

[Mondy]

Latest dropsonde measured 908mb. Sub 900 is on course. As i said earlier, everything is perfect for Rita to continue to intensify.

Katrina, i think, went to 902 or 904mb.

[P.K.]

Latest dropsonde measured 908mb. Sub 900 is on course. As i said earlier, everything is perfect for Rita to continue to intensify.

Katrina, i think, went to 902 or 904mb.

901.6hPa I think it was.

[rixxxgolf]

Ah, now you're teasing big man!!! What do you mean?  :huh:   :huh:   :huh:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I cannot put my finger on it, There has been alot of energy disapearing from Phillipe and surrounding front's/area's.

It's the most un-scientific explanation but I really don't trust Rita to follow the rules.

Just look at the Atlantic wide picture...

http://aviationweather.gov/data/obs/sat/in..._ICAO-B1_bw.jpg

"Sore Thumb" springs to mind.

[Somerset Squall]

Certainly has been quick strengthening!!!

Katrina's lowest pressure was 902mb.

[kold weather]

Hi MediaHype,welcome by the way,evn if its a few days late!

Thats one heck of a image there,perfect look to it there,very dry air with very low dew points usggesting that there is very dry air in the eye,to be expected in such a powerful system.Infact it reminds me alot of Katrina insted this system is more allinged east-west rather then north-south like Katrina.

Also IF its starting to move more NW then that would suggest that the high isn't holding out as well,I suspect thats highly down to Rita's strength and the apperenec of a trough into NW USa pushing the ridge more and more to the east allowing the system to start to turn more to the north.I don't think the models have thought of this possiblty very mnuch and only a few models take this system to 140kts,which is clearly wrong now and so there is a much higher chance of it trying to push polewards more then a weaker storm.If it has sghifted more to the NW then expect the landfall sight to be shifted eastwards,Galveston and maybe even far western LA at larger risk then if it carried on heading due west for the next 12hrs.

Worth wathcing this one very closely,max winds could reach the same,maybe even slightly higher then Katrina and pressure wise,it has a strong chance of reaching a similar strength as Katrina,maybe even sub-900mbs ifd it can keep deepen at the massive rate its doig so now,its doing a Charley from last year in terms of getting deeper pressure,but its both stronger and not much to stop it apart from peaking out as high a sit can go which we saw occuring with Katrina,i suspect Rita will also see a similar peak level,but may get slightly deeper then Katrina due to the small size of the storm and its ablity to deepen amazingly rapidly.Reminding me more and mor eof what the florida keys system of 1935 did,from TS to cat-5 in just 36hrs,looks like this has gone from to cat-1 to cat-5 in equal amount of time,so looks like this system wil lbe nearly as impressive as the keys storm,amazing!!!

simply amazing.

(ps,908mbs,yep certainly on track for Katirnas strnegth,maybe even hurricane Allen which reached 899mbs...could be a good chance at that if it can keep deepening like it is at present,but I think it can't go much deeper as it alreadly looks nearly perfect in terms of satilite represnetation and everything else seems to suggest that this is a monster hurricane,certainly looks like it'll be a top-5 hurricane in terms of deepness of pressure if it carries on at present...it just makes you wonder if Gilberts record is quite safe...)

Also lets be thankful this isn't heading for NO like Katrina did,whoever gets it though will be hammered,even if it does weaken a fair amount.

Edited September 21, 2005 by kold weather

[Mad Murdoch]

has anybody got any web cam links for where rita is going to hit..

[Marcus_surfer]

Hurricane Rita :

[rixxxgolf]

This is bugging me....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Run the sequence and watch the turn, then as it turns note over florida. There is a definate link with the moisture that side on and the wnw shift.

I think she's slowing and turn quicker than expected. I hope not but something is not according to plan.

[i luv snow]

what do you mean by not according to plan? lol what do you reckon its gonna dom your posts are interesting me this evening :huh:

[summer blizzard]

I agree, Kold Weather, if the storm is stronger then it will weaken the ridge more, it is already 25mph above expectations and i think your landfall prediction may be on the mark, since it is hitting further north than predicted, Hurricane Rita will make landfall earlier than predicted, i think that Hurricane Rita is annular and may be able to make landfall as a category 5 hurricane without any serious weakening, i believe a peak at 893mb with sustained windspeeds of 193mph will happen.