Hurricane Rita.

[SMU]

Morning ALL-

Latest information I can gather from sources are-

The National Hurricane Center has struggled with the intensity of the forecast of Rita. Rita is most likely stronger than the NHC pegs it to be. It sure as hell hasn't weakened as much as the Center predicted it to do. The slighting weakening was not because of shear, but rather a mythodical ERC and being over a cool water eddy( the new eye is about 30 miles wide-). Rita has held her together overnight. Friday is going to be very interesting. We will have to see if the National Hurricane Center's forecast of shear is an issue or not. In my opinion, the National Hurricane Center's shear forecast is over the top. Rita will be stronger than anticipated due to a new eye wall replacement, low shear, and warmer waters. Consequently, we may be dealing with a stronger Rita at landfall as a result of these factors. The National Hurricane Center's forecast credibility is at stake with Rita as they go up against Accuweather, so far they are doing an average job at best. Perhaps, with Accuweather and jo bast*rdi stealing their thunder they will be more aggressive with their forecasting in future-

The very latest track ensemble pack- ( Courtesy of Jonathan Vigh)

Still planned to hit a STRONG Cat 4- now ERC is complete ( later than planned) there is time for reintensification- probably down to around 905/910 mb before weakeneing a little before landfall....

Steve

Edited September 23, 2005 by Steve Murr

[MediaHype]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 230542

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA MOVING

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER

TEXAS COASTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN

CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO

COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF

LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND

FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT

MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF

MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. THE WATCH

IN MEXICO MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE

WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...

525 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460

KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN

STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW

ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS

ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE

LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY

KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE

ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE

COASTAL FLOODING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12

INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER

SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.

SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING

LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN

LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW

ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS

OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[MediaHype]

Latest edits suggest potentially devastating and this pic I can see why

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/EVENTS/EG64.JPG

[Mondy]

Morning all.

Seems to have weakened then strengthened. Eyewall replacement appears to have lasted a while.

Pressure now 924mb. Landfall still bang on as predicted.

Can't believe this buoy still managed to record data: Brilliant looking graph! http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?sta...meas=wdpr&uom=E

Looks like she has taken another wobble: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?sta...meas=wdpr&uom=E

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[pinball wizard]

Thats a pretty impressive set of buoy readings, it did well to keep reporting that data.

[Mondy]

Definetly a jig NW on this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html

or http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

I just wonder if landfall will be late tonight?

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

New Orleans>Baton Rouge

Lot of warnings for there <_<

This radar been taken out already? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_N0Z_lp.shtml

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[Weatherwatcher]

She seems to be very ragged now. Dry air has got to her from the western side by the looks of things and the eye is quite weak. Reports of cat 3 winds but the pressure is still in line with a cat 4.

[Hemlock]

Seems to have weakened then strengthened. Eyewall replacement appears to have lasted a while.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Is it growing again? they said on the news this morning that Rita was slowly falling apart?

[Weatherwatcher]

Looks like she is falling apart but there's still some hours left. Makes me wonder if anyone will take an evacuation seriously again there as many are talking of 175mph winds and now COULD get 125 max

Edited September 23, 2005 by Weatherwatcher

[Polar Bear]

Is it growing again? they said on the news this morning that Rita was slowly falling apart?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

really? oh whats going on then?

[Mondy]

Yep, overnight she had a very long eyewall replacement. Briefly strengthened after that, but i get the feeling an eddy is making her lose some identity now.

Eye is still intact, but more cloud filled - not another eyewall replacement surely?

Drier air is getting in to her - she's having trouble digesting that. Hence all the wobbling about.

I predict a Cat 2/3 on landfall now. Still bad, but could've been a lot worse.

All in all, she could go quickly <_<

[Gray-Wolf]

Seems more than an eyewall replacement cycle. I went to bed with core pressure dropping backto 913 and shes now 923 .I think we should wait until today ,p.m., before deciding this is the death knell of Rita.

Anyone else heard that after she makes landfall and wallows around a bit she may return to the Gulf for a bit of a resurection? Does this mean H.P. building to the North of her pushing her back South?

[SnowBear]

Winds are only a part of it, 175mph or 125mph, most of that coast is below or near sea level, the storm surge is now banked up and wont drop away until Rita is past, bit like a snow plough, once the snow is banked up a change in speed by the plough wont effect the amount of snow thats accumulated.

Evacs were and are correct, Katrina weakened in a similar fashion before land fall due to dry air, it still caused an immense amount of damage, a large portion from storm surge and flooding.

[Mondy]

Seems more than an eyewall replacement cycle. I went to bed with core pressure dropping backto 913 and shes now 923 .I think we should wait until today ,p.m., before deciding this is the death knell of Rita.

Anyone else heard that after she makes landfall and wallows around a bit she may return to the Gulf for a bit of a resurection? Does this mean H.P. building to the North of her pushing her back South?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep, couple of models chuck her back in to the Gulf <_<

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0518_model.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Yep, couple of models chuck her back in to the Gulf <_<

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0518_model.html

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for that Mondy! :unsure:

[Mondy]

You can quite clearly see in this one she's losing it. Bearing in mind this about 90 mins ago. Wonder what she is actually like, real-time.

She's now on the hot spot eddy and doesn't like it. Eddy v Rita; Eddy winning <_<

[Weatherwatcher]

Winds are only a part of it, 175mph or 125mph, most of that coast is below or near sea level, the storm surge is now banked up and wont drop away until Rita is past, bit like a snow plough, once the snow is banked up a change in speed by the plough wont effect the amount of snow thats accumulated.

Evacs were and are correct, Katrina weakened in a similar fashion before land fall due to dry air, it still caused an immense amount of damage, a large portion from storm surge and flooding.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Evacuations are completely correct as she will probably land as at least a cat2 with floodling likely but a lot of people who have left will be relatively unaffected unlike with a cat5. IMO this sort of situation gives more weight to the band of people who say "i'll always sit these out" due to the media hype and now the likely much weakened Rita making landfall. Yes, some areas will see a lot of damage, areas that are prone to flooding, but wind wont be as bad as anticipated 24 hours ago.

[Mondy]

Btw, study this animation and check Phillipe go <_<

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

[PompeyFC]

what do you mean check phillipe ?

[Mondy]

At +108 hours it ends up over us.

[Kiwi]

At +108 hours it ends up over us.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

mmmm it'll be a bit breezy then <_< --- especially N Scotland

[Roger J Smith]

Looks to me as though Rita is interacting with a growing upper vortex and this is producing a rather erratic forward motion with two pronounced wobbles past nine hours, first to the due west, then northwest, now more west again. I don't see a lot of weakening yet, and the storm will probably hit the coast just west of the TX-LA border around 09z (in 24h) as either a weak cat-4 or strong cat-3. However, the path is becoming so erratic that a last-minute wobble to the west is going to place Galveston Bay in the path of the eyewall. This could still be a second Katrina type impact in a very significant economic target area. I think the model scenarios showing a stall or a loop around will probably bust, it's more likely that Rita will gradually weaken and fall apart inland with the moisture gradually streaming northeast in a few days time.

[Gray-Wolf]

Btw, study this animation and check Phillipe go <_<

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

About a week ago when i first saw a similar forcast he was doing all of that 'today' I guess something got him bogged down eh?

It does highlight how unexact that science of storm forcasting can be. (like LRF in a microcosm)

[Thunder Snow]

After watching a forecast on msn, they say Rita can go either way. She may hit land at a cat 3-4-5. Which is possible