Hurricane Rita Pt3

[rixxxgolf]

She's definatley in peril, Just a matter of time.

Maybe Miracles do happen.

[SnowBear]

seen the next frame, not due north, but it is slightly more towards the north, target if it carried on now in a straight line would be right on the TX/LA border I think.

[Weatherwatcher]

cat 2 at the most at landfall?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Possibly low cat-3.

[January Snowstorm]

It was always going to be the rain that was biggest danger! The fact that the storm is moving North means trouble for NewOrleans

[londonsnow]

i'd go for between beaumont and lake charles. dunno what there is around lake chales but it looks quite big and if rita lands to the west there could be a lake surge?!!

[Nick F]

A tornado watch is in force for Southern Louisiana, so not only the threat of heavy rain, surges and high winds:

* at 1151 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 8 miles

southeast of Whitehall... or about 12 miles north of Reserve...

moving west at 45 mph.

* The tornado is expected to be near...

Whitehall by noon CDT

8 miles north of Sorrento by 1210 PM CDT

7 miles north of Gonzales by 1215 PM CDT

Prairieville and 9 miles north of geismer by 1220 PM CDT

Oak Hills Place... Gardere... Westminster and 7 miles south of Baton

Rouge by 1230 PM CDT

Wind gusting to gale force in Galveston now, it's clouded over but dry:

Detailed Current Conditions

(Currently at 12:42 PM)

Humidity 67% Cloud Cover 100%

Visibility 10 mi Max Temp. 95° F

Dewpoint 73° F Min Temp. 80° F

Ceiling 27700 ft Departure -5° F

Apparent Temp 93° F High Past 6 hrs. 87° F

Wind Chill 85° F Low Past 6 hrs. 81° F

Wind Speed 26 mph Precip Past 3 hours 0.00 in

Wind Direction N Precip Past 6 hours 0.00 in

Wind Gusts 37 mph Precip Past 24 hours 0.95 in

Pressure 29.67"Hg (F)

Edited September 23, 2005 by Nick F

[kold weather]

Intresting but radar shows different picture,eye still very much in tact on radar images but there is alot of cloud cover pushing in now,however the key feature that is causing it to weaken alot is this:

L. OPEN SE

It's eye is open on the south-eastern side, and it has ingested some very dry air as well into its circluation.Still pressure is at 930mbs and it may be trying at least to undergo a Eyewall replacement,but I suspect the main probelsm is the storm having a hard time having to adapt to less heat content and with some slight shear,a fairly messed up inner core and some very dry air over Texas that this storm keeps ingesting into the North-western quandrant.Looks like a cat-3 and recon flight winds do support that,winds on latest advisory down to 135mph,still very powerful.

Track via radar seems to show a pretty solid NW movement,wit hthe odd wobble to the NNW,not good news for LA and new Orleans,it'll likely hit the border between the two states.Is this storm for now being weakened,yes,is it dead,hell no and I think what it is now will probably be at waht strength it comes it.

[Gray-Wolf]

Maybe it is only the 'eye of the hopeful' but the 17:15 infra red GOES image seems to show the eye opening up again (one last time?).

[Weatherwatcher]

In one parish in SE Louisiana there were warnings for 3 possible tornados. One tornado on the ground was travelling at 50mph. Not only do these people get told to get as low as possible to protect against these beasts, they also have to watch for flooding.

[BristolBaggie]

Rita now getting stronger and described as the perfect storm by FOX. No weakening forecast until land fall where it will be a strong CAT 3 or 4

[londonsnow]

latest noaa makes her officially cat 3, 125 sustained and 931mb. weakening fast tho

[SteveB]

Fox news Latest,

Rita now a cat 3

New Orleans now flooding again.

[Mondy]

...RITA ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN

CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO

COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN

COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL

RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE

CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND

UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. A FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT

RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 205 MILES. AN ELEVATED PLATFORM ON ISLE DENIERES NEAR THE

SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58

MPH.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...

LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO

THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY

RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI

AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE

AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE

WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF

THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12

INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER

SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN

LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER

AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY

AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES

ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO

WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN

TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND

ALABAMA

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 92.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

EDIT:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 23/1700Z

B. 27 DEG 38 MIN N

92 DEG 08 MIN W

C. NA

D. NA

E. NA

F. 180 DEG 124 KT

G. 089 DEG 18 NM

H. 931 MB

I. 16 C/ 2200 M

J. 20 C/ 2653 M

K. 15 C/ NA

L. OPEN SE

M. C30

N. 12345/NA

O. 1/1 NM

P. NOAA2 WX18A RITA OB 05

MAX FL WIND 124 KT E QUAD 1654Z

FIX AT 8,700 FT PRESSURE ALTITUDE

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[kold weather]

Hi londonsnow,weakening trend looks to have stopped now,big storms going up in the western eyewall it seems now.system was having a problem due to having ingested air(if you look at the water vapor you'll see what I mean,esp in the NW quadrant)now that this system seems to be ingesting the dry air it should steady out more and winds should stop decreasing,infact may even increase if it can fend the dry air of enough,but likely only 5mph.

I'd be suprised if it weakens anymore,despite having trouble with dry air like it is currently,with only some more ingestion of dry air having the threat of weakening the storm even more and it still reminds me alot of Katrina at this stage.

Still tracking NW at present on radar,should be a borders storm but a wobble westwards would bring Galveston back into the equation in terms of eyewall hit.

Edited September 23, 2005 by kold weather

[Mondy]

Although she is now weakening significantly, the storm surge in the Gulf is still at Cat4/5 levels.

[SMU]

Hi londonsnow,weakening trend looks to have stopped now,big storms going up in the western eyewall it seems now.system was having a problem due to having ingested air(if you look at the water vapor you'll see what I mean,esp in the NW quadrant)now that this system seems to be ingesting the dry air it should steady out more and winds should stop decreasing,infact may even increase if it can fend the dry air of enough,but likely only 5mph.

I'd be suprised if it weakens anymore,despite having trouble with dry air like it is currently,with only some more ingestion of dry air having the threat of weakening the storm even more and it still reminds me alot of Katrina at this stage.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi All-

There has definatly been some degredation of Rita over the past few hours- recon goes to 931 Mb now with some Some Eye wall collapse-

I doubt this is an ERC as I think it differs-this collapse is more of a dry air entrainment into the system. In an Eyewall replacemetn.. a new eyewall forms and cuts off the dymanics that kept the first eyewall going.. so the inner one collapses while the outer one takes over and sometimes gets to tighten up aftewards... This does not seem like the case for Rita.. After Rita finished its eyewall replacment cycle..it got to close to land and has seemed to pull in the dry air of the mainland..

Despite the main eye wall collapse there is still significant convection firing as well significant water vapour on the inner rain bands...

Loop Sat-

Dont forget though despite some weakening because of Rita's status of Cat 5 in the gulf the energy stored up in the storm surge will not dissipate even when the store does slightly over the coastline-

Ive noticed a recent woblle northwards as well, further Bad news for NO- as the levvies are already being breached-

So whilst the inevitable slow downgrade has begun the overwhelming fact now as has been for a while isnt the damage from wind but Storm surge and rainfall totals-

Regards

Steve

[dee88]

did anyone just see the levee breech on channel 4, it looked bad

Edited September 23, 2005 by dee88

[Mondy]

While we all take a quick break and check things out ,anyone got an inkling as to what Phillipe is up to? This morning he was to dissipate, now he's looped himself heading WNW. East side US on alert next?

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[kold weather]

Looks like the NHC may have to up the winds to 130mph next advisory in the wake of finding pressure dropping slightly and winds of 129kts at flight level:

MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 1741Z

which at a quick guess would probably put Rita at 130mph(can anyone confirm this?)this looks to be in response to those T-storms flaring up in the eyewall like I mentioned earilier.Western side still looks quite bare away from the eyewall but considering the alrge amount of dry air it took in about a hour ago thats not to suprising and that wil ltake a while to recover,although this from now on in will be a lop-sided storm like Katrina became in the end,with the strongest winds and heaviest rain on the eastern side,not to say the western side won't be strong as well mind you as its bound to have some strong winds in that eyewall.

wobbles are becoming very important now as well,radar suggest a westerly wobble is in motion right now,every bit it contniues westwards raises Galveston's chances of seeing hurricane force winds higher then was expected,infact it's stil in the cone of uncertainty and so its yet possible it may see the weaker,but still strong western eyewall although it'll have to keep this wobble up for a little while yet to shift the landfall sight that much west.

Edited September 23, 2005 by kold weather

[textmum]

It looks very wet now in CBD New Orleans

http://www.ironcolo.com/desktopalert/

[Cloudburst]

Looks like rita is going to absorb that cold front ahead of it.

[MediaHype]

Latest Vis image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

Also see news channels reporting surges along coastal areas now

[smich]

Some great (albeit brief) footage on Sky active of the eye from one of the Hurricane Hunters. Beautiful blue sky overhead, nearly stadium effect all around. Don't know when the footage was taken though.

Makes me wonder: how high is your average hurricane? Maybe a plane could still fly, say, 10,000ft above an eye, and get the mother of all photographs.

Most of the stuff we see is from satellite, or on the ground.

Smich

[Weatherwatcher]

Some great (albeit brief) footage on Sky active of the eye from one of the Hurricane Hunters. Beautiful blue sky overhead, nearly stadium effect all around.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm jealous I didn't see it :unsure:

[Marcus_surfer]

East orleans is now under deep water. 24ppl reported dead from bus explosion