Hurricane Rita Pt3

[Ryan M]

I was out for most of the day and FOX isn't showing what category it is, is it still Cat 5?

[Mondy]

Yeh this is really weird.  Phillipe seemed to be on course towards Ireland for Tuesday and it now seems to have turned round.  I saw a comment somewhere on the NOAA site that it's doing its thing near Bermuda - or have I got this completely wrong.  If Phillipe isn't coming our way what's the big depression off NW Scotland/Eire at the beginning of next week on the METO fax?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ahhh! Ok..let's put Phillipe to bed! I, too Jacquie, thought something was going there...not now

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 26

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

...PHILIPPE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...

AT 5 PM EDT ...2100Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT

170 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH

...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW

PRESSURE AREA...AND DISSIPATE...WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OR

SOONER.

How's Rita's eye doing now?

Edited September 23, 2005 by Mondy

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I make it between 4 and 6am saturday (BST)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I make it 8am!!!

[matmilne]

WOW that soon? she's got a wriggle on then hasn't she? I thought it was going to be much later. Will have to set alarm.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Place your position predictions for the night, by tommorow it'll all be over

Last predction of the night; i'm going to say halfway between the trinity and neches river, route 10 had better be clear by 2300et cause if it's not there's gonna be a lot of deaths.

[Ryan M]

Good, at least I will be able to see this one hit, I was at school when Katrina hit.

[Snow Queen one]

I was out for most of the day and FOX isn't showing what category it is, is it still Cat 5?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dropped down to cat 3 now Ryan

[pinball wizard]

I make it 8am!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well I dont ok?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/3933/710/1600/r671.jpg

Infra-red image really shows up those cold cloud tops W and NW of centre.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I take it when the 'whites' complete the circle Rita will have won the upper level war and re-established her own upper level H.P. and her eyewall replacement will be complete?

[Ryan M]

Thanks for the info SQO

[rixxxgolf]

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR

DAYBREAK SATURDAY...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS

HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING

IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A

HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO

PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN

COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL

RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

...AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TO PORT ARKANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN

THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE

CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST

LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE

BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A

DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD

INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. AN ELEVATED

STATION AT MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS

OF 59 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 78 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...

LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO

THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY

RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI

AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE

AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE

WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF

THE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12

INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER

SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN

LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER

AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY

AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 25

INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS

INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN

TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND

ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 92.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE

ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Mondy]

Good, at least I will be able to see this one hit, I was at school when Katrina hit.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yip, i'll be at work at 5am tomorrow morning..just great!

[Cloudburst]

I make it 8am!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wow look at the stats from this buoy!!

Station SLPL1

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.1 m/s

Wind Gust (GST): 26.8 m/s

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 993.4 mb

Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -6.2 mb ( Falling Rapidly )

Air Temperature (ATMP): 25.4 °C

Water Temperature (WTMP): 27.3 °C

[Ryan M]

Yip, i'll be at work at 5am tomorrow morning..just great!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sarcasm-o-meter :999999999999

[Mondy]

Here we are:

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 25

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2005

the weakening trend appears to have leveled off. It appears that the

eyewall replacement cycles have been the dominant factor...as

usual...in controlling the intensity fluctuations of Rita. Flight

level wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that

maximum winds are about 110 knots. Objective T-numbers have

increased a little suggesting stronger winds but I rather wait for

these numbers to persist. Only a slight weakening is forecast

before landfall due to shear and cooler ocean. This is not a very

significant change and in fact...Rita is still forecast to make

landfall as a category three hurricane.

The hurricane has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at

about 10 knots during the past few hours. No significant change in

the steering pattern is expected before landfall. On this

track...the core of Rita should reach the Upper Texas/southwest

Louisiana coast Saturday morning. Thereafter...the steering

currents are foreast to collapse and a weakened Rita could

meander for a few days over northeast Texas/southwest Arkansas

producing torrential rains.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 23/2100z 28.2n 92.6w 110 kt

12hr VT 24/0600z 29.2n 93.7w 105 kt

24hr VT 24/1800z 30.8n 94.5w 65 kt...inland

36hr VT 25/0600z 32.5n 94.5w 30 kt...inland

48hr VT 25/1800z 33.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland

72hr VT 26/1800z 33.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland

96hr VT 27/1800z 33.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland

120hr VT 28/1800z 33.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Well I dont ok? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

how did you work it out?? In light of the recent advisory I did the maths :-P

140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.

So thats 155miles divided by 12 miles an hour = 11.666666666666667

So make that about 11 1/2 hrs from 9pm when the advisory came ... so thats ... 9pm+11 1/2 = 8:30am ish ...

[pinball wizard]

how did you work it out?? In light of the recent advisory I did the maths :-P

140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.

So thats 155miles divided by 12 miles an hour = 11.666666666666667

So make that about 11 1/2 hrs from 9pm when the advisory came ... so thats ... 9pm+11 1/2 = 8:30am ish ...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Worked it out with a big magic wand.

[frogesque]

Found this sat pic Hurricane Advisories : TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE & HURRICANE RITA

(Sorry if it's already been posted)

[Ryan M]

So make that about 11 1/2 hrs from 9pm when the advisory came ... so thats ... 9pm+11 1/2 = 8:30am ish ...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

BST or ET?

[Snow Queen one]

11 news say eye 155 miles se of galvestone hurricane force winds to hit there by 11pm US time 5am BST eye due to hit 3-4am US time 9am BST. 11 news go for eye passing over port arthur/beaumont

[Cloudburst]

11 news say eye 155 miles se of galvestone hurricane force winds to hit there by 11pm US time 5am BST  eye due to hit 3-4am US time 9am BST.  11 news go for eye passing over port arthur/beaumont

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dam i wish i was there

[pinball wizard]

how did you work it out?? In light of the recent advisory I did the maths :-P

140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.

So thats 155miles divided by 12 miles an hour = 11.666666666666667

So make that about 11 1/2 hrs from 9pm when the advisory came ... so thats ... 9pm+11 1/2 = 8:30am ish ...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Worked it out by looking at satellite pics, all depends on where it makes landfall though due to the curvature of the land.

[MediaHype]

Hi all

Some fantastic pictures at the NASA Looking at Eart site of RITA

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingat...h2005_rita.html

Looking at Earth not Eart

Edited September 23, 2005 by MediaHype

[Ryan M]

Eye to hit around 9am, damn, i'll be out, oh well, i'll probably be sad enough to tape it.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

BST or ET?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

All our time ... 9pm our time it came out ... that was 4pm their time - 5 hours behind us ...

[Ryan M]

Alarm set for 5 am, gonna be good, anyone else gonna be on here at 5 am?