Hurricane Rita Pt3

[torzcooper]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 240453

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

MIDNIGHT CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE RITA WOBBLING TOWARD LANDFALL NEAR THE

LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BATTERING

SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO MORGAN

CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE

ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN

COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL

RIVER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE

PONTCHARTRAIN... AND FROM SOUTH OF SARGENT TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS

TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THE

TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL

TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205

MILES. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY

REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH WITH A GUST TO 83 MPH...WHILE AN

AUTOMATED STATION AT CALCASIEU PASS LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A

GUST OF 98 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER

IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...

LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH

LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO

THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY

RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI

AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE

AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE

WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF

THE GULF COAST.

SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS

AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25

INCHES COULD OCCUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO

5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY

NIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND

MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION...29.2 N... 93.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[torzcooper]

Am I the only nutter that would really,really like to be over there experiencing this 1st hand :o

I would love to be one of those reporters, my dream job on a night like this.

Here is an interesting link to all the bouy readings in the path of Rita.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php...dist=250&time=3

[Ryan M]

Am I the only nutter that would really,really like to be over there experiencing this 1st hand :o

I would love to be one of those reporters, my dream job on a night like this.

Here is an interesting link to all the bouy readings in the path of Rita.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php...dist=250&time=3

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That must mean I'm a nutter too Torz As a result of the usually plain weather in Britain, I'd love to head into a nice big hurricane

[torzcooper]

It appears that the eyewall winds are making landfall in the next 30 mins near Cameron (my 10 yr old lad called Cameron is really chuffed!!he's been up watching with me since 6am) and the Louisiana coast.

15 miles off the coast at present and moving at 12 mph, storm surge 15ft, 100 mph winds, lake charles strongest winds.

[Stuart]

Rita have hit land

[kold weather]

~Yep landfall right now by the looks of things.Eye has completely fallen apart now however there some very strong convection occuring as it pushes onto land and frictional affects start to occur,helping convection to power up briefly,eyewall still potent,esp northen quadrants and very cold cloud tops are still present.winds however should mnow decrease at a fairly quick rate and this thing will be a cat-2 soon enough.

Soon it'll be the rain that is the main issue as this thing slows down.Already places like Lake Charles has gotten 6 inches of rain,places further south have seen even larger amounts upto 9inches,this amount mainly caused by the strong northen quadrant of the eyewall which is dropping about 3inhes in a hour which is a vry large amount.N.Eyewqall still very potent and thats where al lthe main action will take place over the next few hours I suspect.

[SxK]

Yes, NHC states that the eyewall is thin, which obviously means that eyewall replacement is likely. But I would say additional strengthening even if it forms a new eyewall is relatively slim.

I would expect landfall at about Cat 3 - 120mph winds.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I was bang on . However lets not forget that although its *only* a Cat 3, this is a major storm. Lets hope casualties are kept to an absolute minimum.

[Kiwi]

Eye seems to be tracking a bit more to the west now -- bad news especially for places like Beaumont.

[nanu]

To us that storm just looks like another wet / windy day as i watch the live feeds from different tv stations, we get those conditions almost every month during the autumn/winter in scotland etc. The main problem is just fires

Looks like it hasnt been as bad as they thought it would of been.

Mind you i couldnt live out there watching them presenters and their overhyped broadcasting trying to make it as tragic as possible

But im glad it didnt turn out to be another katrina

[kold weather]

Remember Nanu they are behind buildings,so thats shielding them from the powerful winds caused by the hurricane,if they were out it the worst of it,they'd likely be blown down the road and killed by flying things.I'm sure its a heck of alot more powerful then what it looks,its certainly WAY more powerful then most depressions we get.

Edited September 24, 2005 by kold weather

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Yay my 9am prediction wasn't too far off then My first ''forecast'' that came right ... Just got up - gota headache so missed the drama but im sure there is plenty for me to catch up on now!!

[SteveB]

Fox News latest.

Lake Charles, La

Highway collapsed

Private Airport: Hangers completely blown away, according to local sheriffs.

[nanu]

Remember Nanu they are behind buildings,so thats shielding them from the powerful winds caused by the hurricane,if they were out it the worst of it,they'd likely be blown down the road and killed by flying things.I'm sure its a heck of alot more powerful then what it looks,its certainly WAY more powerful then most depressions we get.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah id suppose so, but i dont think its turned as bad as they were saying this time yesterday

[smich]

Well, I was wayoff with the time of landfall (I said late morning ),

but I was dead on with the location (Sabine Pass)

I thank yow!

Smich

[Kain]

Mornin all.

Shes come ashure then as a 3, I just saw on fox some building on fire..

Poor people..

Kain

[Jed]

Does any 1 know where ya can get any pics of the eye wall of the storm?

or thunderstorm reports from around the eye?

[rixxxgolf]

Well I predicted here 40 hours ago in thread 1!!!!

[kold weather]

Okay since your all bragging,I'm going to as well,here is what I said on the 18th of september:

I'm personally thinking SE Texas at the moment with it starting to re-curve

This was while the system had jus tbeen upgraded to a TD-18,now considering that was 6 days out i think it was a pretty nifty predcition that,thats was at the sdame time the models said Mexico,but as I said then,its highly unlikely that the high would be strong enough to hold on for 6 days like it was.

[rixxxgolf]

SE texas is a HUGE area though

[PersianPaladin]

Okay since your all bragging,I'm going to as well,here is what I said on the 18th of september:

This was while the system had jus tbeen upgraded to a TD-18,now considering that was 6 days out i think it was a pretty nifty predcition that,thats was at the sdame time the models said Mexico,but as I said then,its highly unlikely that the high would be strong enough to hold on for 6 days like it was.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, i remember u saying that...hats off to ya

Wish i could forecast these big cumbersome things.

[kold weather]

When I said Se Texas I meant somewhere like Galveston,which was about 60 miles away from landfall,but from that far out its a pretty good return,esp considering I made that prediction 120hrs out,when the models kept this thing close to the Texas/Mexico border and most people had a feeling it would be a Mexico storm.anyway thats my bragging done for the day

Still good prediction rixxxgolf as well.

Edited September 24, 2005 by kold weather

[smich]

SE texas is a HUGE area though

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LMAO!!!

I seem to recall I agreed with your prediction at the time rixxx

ps kw, 6 days out and you had that pretty much sussed - not bad for a beginner!

Smich

[MediaHype]

When people say it wasnt as bad as expected, they mean it dropped from a Cat 5 to a Cat3!!!!

A cat 3 brings with it storm surge, huge amounts of rainfall, flooding as seen in NO and surely in coastal areas all along the coast, wind damage, threat to life, structural damage

That is some storm in my eyes!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks good, damage seeming to be a more typical spread of Hurricane damage and not what could have been (Galveston ,Huston etc. didn't get it too bad) soo.....

Where next? any interesting depressions/T.D.'s heading the Gulfs way?

EDIT Still got the rain to deal with though, esp. N.O.

Edited September 24, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[pinball wizard]

Will probably be around teatime our time before the extent of the damage is clear. Especially with flooding as you have to wait for water levels to peak, flood damage will be quite severe in many places. Anyone know how well N.O is holding up?