Annual CET 2007

[Stratos Ferric]

It's an interesting and plausible explanation I suppose, but it's contrary to the fact that the real driver before this month has been outlandishly high overnight minima, often driven by cloudy skies. That, I'd suggest, is counter to the aerosol argument, unless there are more complex feedbacks elsewhere of which I'm not aware.

[Bobby]

I think my 10.7 will be too low. The exceptional warmth just keeps on coming. Not just above average but exceptional stuff, almost every month. Is just relentless.

This year I think will be a record breaker, maybe even smash the record. I am going for 11+, suprised if it wasn't.

[acbrixton]

Using the Manley data and assuming 7.2 for March and 11.1 for April (and rounding on the conventional atithmetic not meterological basis) then on the basis of the 10 year rolling average deduced from Manley:

1. we would get to about 10.4 if all other months from and including May were "average" on the basis of the 10 year rolling mean.

2. To get to 11 would require each month from and including May to be about 0.8 above the 10 year rolling average...not impossible but fairly unlikey?

Regards

ACB

P.S. rolling 10 year averages are (if my arithmetic is corect...) [Hadley 71-2000 in square brackets] {Hadley 61-1990 }:

J. 5.2 [4.2] {3.8}

F. 5.4 [4.2] {3.8}

M. 6.9 [6.3] {5.7}

A. 8.8 [8.1] {8.0}

M. 12.1 [11.3] {11.2}

J. 14.4 [14.1] {14.1}

J. 16.7 [16.5] {16.1}

A. 17.0 [16.2] {15.8}

S. 14.8 [13.7] {13.6}

O. 11.1 [10.4] {10.6}

N. 7.5 [6.9] {6.5}

D. 5.3 [5.1] {4.6}

Average annual CET for 71-2000: 9.75; for 61-1990: 9.48

Average annual CET rolling 10 year average: 10.47

[Attributions: Philip Eden for 10 year rolling averages, UKMO for Hadley data]

Notes:1 This all rather tends to show (as argued by SF and others) that the recent acceleration of UK warming makes reliance on the 71-2000 data alone somewhat misleading.

2. Recent warming has affected all months and seasons although by no means equally.

3. The prospect of an annual CET at or below the 71-2000 average looks very unlikely for the foreseeable future whilst an average at or below th 61-1990 average looks all but impossible...

4. Corrections to arithmetic and method gratefully received!

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Average annual CET for 71-2000: 9.75; for 61-1990: 9.48

Average annual CET rolling 10 year average: 10.47

[Attributions: Philip Eden for 10 year rolling averages, UKMO for Hadley data]

Notes:1 This all rather tends to show (as argued by SF and others) that the recent acceleration of UK warming makes reliance on the 71-2000 data alone somewhat misleading.

2. Recent warming has affected all months and seasons although by no means equally.

3. The prospect of an annual CET at or below the 71-2000 average looks very unlikely for the foreseeable future whilst an average at or below th 61-1990 average looks all but impossible...

4. Corrections to arithmetic and method gratefully received!

Andrew, I haven't checked your figure, but they look about right. Your point no.3 is very telling: moreso, I have to say, is the sudden sense I have that even the ten year rolling mean seems outdated, sitting as we are at the end of April on a rolling mean up around 11.5. 10.47 seems about as far away right now as must have manned space flight to prehistoric man.

[noggin]

seems about as far away right now as must have manned space flight to prehistoric man.

By the same token, a cooldown on Earth may seem as far away to some. But manned space flight did happen.

Our climate is always warming up or cooling down. The cooldown will come.

My old climate tutor at college, somebody who was genuinely eminent in the field in the UK and had made it a lifetime's study, once said to me in response to something I asked him regarding a run of weather we were having, "...well, you know what, I don't know when it will change, but it will, and when it does it will do the opposite".

See.....that's what I've been saying all along! I think I'd like your old tutor, SF

[Gray-Wolf]

Well I hope S.F's old tutor had a good handle on the processes of this planet and their responces under 'extra forcing' and what it would do to weather patterns across our fair isles.

I for one will not be holding my breath as evern a return to 'average' at the mo. would feel like an opposite!

[Lettucing Gutted]

Frighteningly incredible isn't it? Despite a rumored developing La Nina (ENSO Cool Phase) 2007 looks set to be hotter than 2006.

[summer blizzard]

The cooler correction will come, give it time.

[Calrissian]

The cooler correction will come, give it time.

Is that one of those winter ramping kind of talks?

--

How much time? Are we talking mere months, or are you going for the sit on the fence 'sometime within the next few years we'll have a return to normality' assumption?

I'm saying without doubt the warm trend will continue, 2007 will be warmest CET ever. I guess you could say -from my perspective its easier, since we're on a clear trend, and you're being more daring by trying to suggest the trend will break.

I'd be even more extreme and suggest that the trend will break, and is breaking right now, but its not breaking back to the normal conditions of pre-1980, its going to accelerate matters to a speed of trend not seen before.

Calrissian: the only way is up

[Stratos Ferric]

By the same token, a cooldown on Earth may seem as far away to some. But manned space flight did happen.

Our climate is always warming up or cooling down. The cooldown will come. <_<

See.....that's what I've been saying all along! I think I'd like your old tutor, SF

I rather fancy that CG Smith - were he still alive - would have spotted the current warming trend for precisely what it is: a warming trend. I think you rather miss the subtlety in his precise choice of words and my remembering of them. Weather trends back to the climate - his comment was on weather fitting climate, not on climate falling in line with itself. It is absolutely inconceivable that we will not, in the short to medium term, get a month or two below recent average, but in a warming climate that is the best we can hope for. I would not imagine for one moment Noggin that we're about to get another winter like 1963, or months like June 1985 or July 1965. Right now something below 10 year mean would represent a correction within the context of current climate.

Well I hope S.F's old tutor had a good handle on the processes of this planet and their responces under 'extra forcing' and what it would do to weather patterns across our fair isles.

I for one will not be holding my breath as evern a return to 'average' at the mo. would feel like an opposite!

We'll return to average - if you think about it we have to: the point is "what average". You can consign 1961-90 to the history books in absolutely literal terms, and 1971-00 is, it's fair to say, having the cover closed very quickly.

[Roger J Smith]

If every month of the year tied the monthly record or edged above it, the CET annual would be 13.2 or higher.

So far in the non - calendar year June 06 to May 05, if May turned out average, the CET for that year would be 11.8 to 12.0 depending on April's CET.

That's how close to the theoretical limit the current situation is, about 1.3 degrees from the limit.

I'm going to go way out on a limb here and say that some time in the next three or four years, the weather will turn much colder for a prolonged period. I am not going to try to pin down when that might be, but it will involve consecutive months below the '71-'00 averages, and a general feeling that a more normal weather regime has returned.

After all, Feb 05 and Mar 06 both produced some spells of below normal weather so it hasn't been that long since below average temps prevailed for a reasonable length of time. Like two weeks. Up high in the Pennines.

Maybe I'll talk myself out of this during this very post.

[reef]

I'm going to go way out on a limb here and say that some time in the next three or four years, the weather will turn much colder for a prolonged period. I am not going to try to pin down when that might be, but it will involve consecutive months below the '71-'00 averages, and a general feeling that a more normal weather regime has returned.

Thats just the thing though, before this prolonged homogeneous warm period we did have a rather prolonged period of cooler weather. Before May 2006 we had:

Nov 2005: 6.2°C (-0.7°C)

Dec 2005: 4.4°C (-0.7°C)

Jan 2006: 4.3°C (+0.1°C)

Feb 2006: 3.7°C (-0.5°C)

Mar 2006: 4.9°C (-1.4°C)

Apr 2006: 8.6°C (+0.5°C)

Thats 6 months in a row below or close to the 1971-2000 average. Who's to say that these 6 months werent the 'prolonged cold' before the current exceptionally mild months which are the 'correction'. In other words, I remain to be convinced we are overdue a colder regime.

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't think that folk quite grasp that we are in the middle of adding a strong 'forcing' to the way our climate used to hang together. It will not 'go away' and will only increase in it's influence (no matter how hard we wish it would).

I would agree that 05/06 was our entry into the 'old' 20yr cold '(after our 20yr warm) but that 'signal' is now overwhelmed by the forcing we have in place.

Just imagine if we were progged to be entering the '20yr warm' period right now!!!

I must agree with the 'Lovelockian' take on things in that the 'changes' are slow to start up (through the planets own abilities to mitigate 'change' and also the time period needed to allow the initial 'inertia' to be overcome within the climate system) but change is now occuring and it's 'pace' will now only increase.

There will be 'cold anomalies' in this change (we are in the 20yr 'cold' after all) across the globe but the overall trend will be accellerated warming.

If we manage any new highs this year we must be mindful of how large the changes in temp are by looking back to our climate in the last 'cold 20yrs' to see how it compares.

[Stratos Ferric]

I don't think that folk quite grasp that we are in the middle of adding a strong 'forcing' to the way our climate used to hang together. It will not 'go away' and will only increase in it's influence (no matter how hard we wish it would).

...

There will be 'cold anomalies' in this change (we are in the 20yr 'cold' after all) across the globe but the overall trend will be accellerated warming.

If we manage any new highs this year we must be mindful of how large the changes in temp are by looking back to our climate in the last 'cold 20yrs' to see how it compares.

Well, the "if" might well be answered in about ten days' time. I'll run out of hyperbole soon.

[Calrissian]

Thats just the thing though, before this prolonged homogeneous warm period we did have a rather prolonged period of cooler weather. Before May 2006 we had:

Nov 2005: 6.2°C (-0.7°C)

Dec 2005: 4.4°C (-0.7°C)

Jan 2006: 4.3°C (+0.1°C)

Feb 2006: 3.7°C (-0.5°C)

Mar 2006: 4.9°C (-1.4°C)

Apr 2006: 8.6°C (+0.5°C)

Thats 6 months in a row below or close to the 1971-2000 average. Who's to say that these 6 months werent the 'prolonged cold' before the current exceptionally mild months which are the 'correction'. In other words, I remain to be convinced we are overdue a colder regime.

Thats really clutching at the proverbial straw.

Even those numbers are only average. Go back over the last 15-20 years and 'most' of it is way above average. The overall trend is clear,

*as for a 'cooling spell'. Yeah, but you'll have to wait until 2015-17 for that. It will probably be very cold for 2-3 years, but that will be the last spell of old time cold we'll ever see again.

So, for the cold fans, there is still one 'blast from the past' experience yet to be had.

In any case, April continues as before...warm, sunny, and very dry.

Calrissian: time to venture out.

[Stratos Ferric]

Thats really clutching at the proverbial straw.

Even those numbers are only average. Go back over the last 15-20 years and 'most' of it is way above average. The overall trend is clear,

*as for a 'cooling spell'. Yeah, but you'll have to wait until 2015-17 for that. It will probably be very cold for 2-3 years, but that will be the last spell of old time cold we'll ever see again.

So, for the cold fans, there is still one 'blast from the past' experience yet to be had.

In any case, April continues as before...warm, sunny, and very dry.

Calrissian: time to venture out.

I think Reef was arguing for warmth against Roger's previous argument for cold.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Reef;

You are correct to say that prior to May 2006 we did have a six month period that was overall cold by recent year's standards at least, with six months in a row that were close to, or below the 1971-2000 average. That was on a par to another colder period in the winter of 2000-01 and the spring that followed. At least from the middle of December 2000 temps were overall below average until the start of May 2001;

Jan 2001: 3.2*C (-1.0)

Feb 2001: 4.4*C (+0.2)

Mar 2001: 5.2*C (-1.1)

April 2001: 7.7*C (-0.4)

Another point of note is that Oct and Nov 2000 were also close to average overall. In fact extended spells of warmer than average temps were pretty rare from October 2000 to the end of April 2001. As you say, five years later, a similar pattern developed again from mid November 2005 which lasted for five months or so when extended spells of warmer than average temps were again pretty rare from mid Nov 2005 to around late April / early May 2006.

The periods in 2000-01 and 2005-06 when extended spells of above average temps became rare for a few months are the only "cooler" periods of note since the start of 1997, when apart from these two periods temps have been consistently warm apart from the occasional cold month, although warm periods were rare in the summer of 1998, and this resulted in a cooler than average summer overall. Although at a plus, the rest of 2001 after the rather cold first third wasn't overly warm either apart from October and this at least did give a relatively cool year by recent standards.

[North-Easterly Blast]

It is getting to the point now where we should begin to think if the winters of 2000-01 and 2005-06 are the modern versions of 1995-96, 1985, 1986, 1987 and even possibly 1978-79. The longer year on year goes on with month after month recording above average CETs, and the fact that we see chart on chart showing that we can hardly ever get a proper long lasting Greenland or Scandinavian block and a southerly tracking jet it just seems that, for the rest of our lifetimes anyway we will not ever likely even get a winter like 1995-96, or the mid 1980s winters let alone 1978-79 or 1962-63. With also the seemingly winter after winter zonality of the mild zonal Bartlett type, it just seems that even in any of our lifetimes we are never likely to get a cold polar maritime zonal setup like January 1984.

What will ever trigger a trend or the mechanisms for proper Greenland / Scandinavian blocks to develop and a southerly tracking jet and proper long draw northerlies / easterlies to develop and an end to high pressure making its home slap bang over the UK like this month and also trigger Atlantic zonality to resemble the cold polar maritime type (NW-SE track) like January 1984? It should be noted that on two occasions this month (last week and the first week of the month) high pressure has made attempts to establish itself over Greenland but small areas of low pressure in the area have prevented this and so high pressure has returned to its home sat over the UK. This month's setup was also what prevented high latitude blocking to deliver a classic cold spell in late Jan / early Feb 2006 and much of the 2005-06 winter.

Putting all the logic into place of Global Warming, the main facts of this are that the world overall has been half a degree warmer than the long term average since 1998, around half the margin of the warming seen in Britain as a whole since the mid 1990s! Logic here would suggest that Britain should have been half a degree warmer but it hasn't, it has been a full degree warmer, twice the Global Warming trends. The fact also is that British temperatures are only a very small proportion of temperature figures that are used to calculate the world overall average temperature, so none of this paragraph really makes out that it is impossible for a cold month to occur or a severe winter to occur in the UK, and logic says that it must even be possible for the UK to get a cold year like 1996, and still with global temps at the level they have been since 1998, when the UK is only a small proportion of overall global averages, so there must be far more to it than the world being overall half a degree warmer since 1998 that is causing us to hardly ever even be able to get the synoptics that would bring colder conditions to Britain let alone weather charts resembling those of the big freezes such as in 1978-79!

[Stratos Ferric]

NEB,

I agree with all of that: rebaselining our definition / expectation re cold is necessary. Sad, but necessary.

[North-Easterly Blast]

SF;

I haven't exactly mentioned about re-baslining our definition re cold in the UK, I am just emphasising how far ahead British Warming is from Global Warming, and how the UK has warmed far more than logic suggests it should have done. I am also trying to raise that I can see no reason as to why we hardly ever see high latitude blocking even when this month has shown two attempts at a Greenland block and a northerly for the UK and neither have materialised and high pressure has just returned to its home sat over the UK, and these synoptics featured a good deal in the winter 2005-06, especially late Jan / early Feb when high pressure just remained over the UK and attempts at high latitude blocking failed, and even as to why most of last winter was dominated by the zonal Bartlett type and not the cold zonal polar NW'ly type.

A record warm April is nailed now. The GFS progs temps into the low 20s widely by Thurs / Fri although admittedly this is on the warm side of the ensembles by late in the week, and an 11*C April CET looks highly likely now. Not sure about rainfall and sunshine though, there may be too much cloud and rain around earlier this week to break the driest / sunniest April record, and even the GFS is suggesting that there may still be some rain around even during the very warm weather its progging. We were stuck in this month's synoptics for the whole of June / July last year and it took two months to get out of the pattern of high pressure over, or to the east of the UK in Central Europe, and that was after a very cyclonic and wet May.

Not sure about what May will bring, it is too early to tell how May will pan out, but given the pattern that has prevailed for this month it is difficult to see May being anything other than average to warm, and this spring is already challenging the possibility of the warmest spring on record.

[summer blizzard]

W

[Optimus Prime]

We still do and can get synoptic charts that if sustainable would give us a sub zero month a few decades ago. The problem is the source from where the cold air is coming from is never cold enough to give us any particularly low temperatures and so a cold block can never sustain itself over the UK.

March 2006 did give us some hope. I remember upto the 20th or around the CET was at 2.6c. Notably low for so deep into March and if it had been sustained maybe April and the months after would have not been so warm or even had a short run of cold months. But the end of March saw an abrupt change back to Modern, even larger teapot with strong southwesterlies after weeks of Northerlies and Easterlies and so temperatures eneded up pretty average overall.

I don't think we will ever see a winter like 78/79 or even 1995/1996 again. I would give a winter as cold as 2005/2006 a 1 in 4 chance.

Not sure about what May will bring

Probably the warmest on record.

[Stratos Ferric]

SF;

I haven't exactly mentioned about re-baslining our definition re cold in the UK, I am just emphasising how far ahead British Warming is from Global Warming, and how the UK has warmed far more than logic suggests it should have done. I am also trying to raise that I can see no reason as to why we hardly ever see high latitude blocking even when this month has shown two attempts at a Greenland block and a northerly for the UK and neither have materialised and high pressure has just returned to its home sat over the UK, and these synoptics featured a good deal in the winter 2005-06, especially late Jan / early Feb when high pressure just remained over the UK and attempts at high latitude blocking failed, and even as to why most of last winter was dominated by the zonal Bartlett type and not the cold zonal polar NW'ly type.

A record warm April is nailed now. The GFS progs temps into the low 20s widely by Thurs / Fri although admittedly this is on the warm side of the ensembles by late in the week, and an 11*C April CET looks highly likely now. Not sure about rainfall and sunshine though, there may be too much cloud and rain around earlier this week to break the driest / sunniest April record, and even the GFS is suggesting that there may still be some rain around even during the very warm weather its progging. We were stuck in this month's synoptics for the whole of June / July last year and it took two months to get out of the pattern of high pressure over, or to the east of the UK in Central Europe, and that was after a very cyclonic and wet May.

Not sure about what May will bring, it is too early to tell how May will pan out, but given the pattern that has prevailed for this month it is difficult to see May being anything other than average to warm, and this spring is already challenging the possibility of the warmest spring on record.

I think the HP overhead during late spring-spring has been a feature of the last 4-5 years. I haven't checked, but compared to the positioning shown on the charts I've posted in the thread I started this afternoon, I suspect that we get more HP influence now, and disproportionately less in positions giving a cold block.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I am not sure about the cold synoptics not being able to give us cold weather. March 2006 actually did give us some hope; up to the 23rd the CET was 3.2*C, and the first three days were dominated by northerly and easterly airflows, apart from the 7th-10th which had a westerly component to the flow, but as there was a south-westerly for the last seven days, it made the cold CET less outstanding and the CET for March 2006 ended up just over 1*C below the long term average at 4.9*C. November 2005 did also give hope, indeed after a very mild first half the second half saw a CET of 2.6*C, amazingly cold by November standards and was certainly cold even for the synoptics that occurred. Dec 2005, Jan and Feb 2006 produced CETs that were not bad for their synoptics, although none of those months saw an extended spell of zonal SW'lies, cold synoptics (N'lies/E'lies) were short lived during all the three months.

The months I would say in recent years that should have produced colder CETs were February 2005, OK, winds with a south-westerly component were frequent in the first half, and northerlies at the start were from the top of a displaced Azores High, but the easterly spell from the 20th onwards should have been colder than it actually was, as there was no cold air over Europe to tap into to make that easterly especially cold. When I look at the synoptics of Feb 2005, I would expect it to have produced a below average CET probably nearer 3.5*C, but it didn't. Despite Feb 2005 not managing to achieve the negative anomalies that you would expect it to achieve, a positive side is that the period mid Feb 2005 to mid March 2005 still managed a CET of 3.2*C, 1.8*C below the 1971-2000 average and a larger negative anomaly than has occurred in any calendar month since 1997.

August 2006 is another month where the synoptics should have produced a cooler month, as there were no spells of anticyclonic S'ly or SE'ly weather, but given that the northerlies that month were never from way up into the Arctic and they originated from Scandinavia or the Iceland area, I would have expected it to have produced a CET in the 15.0 to 15.5 region, around 1*C below average, but it didn't.

In recent years the "close to average" months of Feb 2005 and Aug 2006 should have been up to around 1*C colder, but I think that the CETs of the colder months from Nov 2005 - Mar 2006 were reasonable for their synoptics.

However, although last winter overall was very mild, the colder spells that occurred didn't do so bad though for the daily CETs that occurred; the anticyclonic spell in December did pretty well to get daily CETs around the 1.5 to 2.0*C mark. The cold spell in early February did pretty well for daily CETs for the synoptics, the 8th and 9th still managed daily CETs around or below the 0*C mark and the easterly on those dates was not from a particularly cold source and the source of the northerly earlier in the week was not especially cold either. The only spell that was not especially cold was the northerly from the 22nd-25th January, it only produced daily CETs down to around the 1.0 to 1.5 mark even though it had come from around the Arctic Circle border, possibly it didn't last long enough to allow enough cold air to dig in to the UK.

[Weather-history]

Looks highly likely being the warmest first third to a year (Jan-Apr)

Current record is 1990 with 7.525

The wamest Feb-Apr period is 1779 with 8.4, that record looks like it will survive.