Snow & Cold Spell General Discussion Part 5

[chilly milly]

I've got drifting already, shame it's only fog drifting in

Enjoy your snow, those who get some, and be patient everyone else. It will snow, eventually

Well in the words of Queen:

I want it all

I want it all

I want it all.....and I want it now!

Just plain greedy me.

[Peter Henderson]

Temperature in Jordanstown is a balmy +5.0C at the moment, compared to -1.6 at the same time last night. Can't see any snow here. We had a skiff on Mon. evening, with some places about a mile or so away (Mosley) getting about a Cm or so. The local forcast is predicting snow for Fermanagh/Tyrone with rain/sleet elsewhere. Some of the locals are getting carried away, and preparing for the worst !

Edited February 7, 2007 by Peter Henderson

[Lynxus]

i have a really scary feeling that this will completely flop!

Please prove me wrong!

[R.P. McMurphy]

Are you having a laugh mate?

LOL

Anyhows, Im currently with an Easterly wind. Temperate 2 Hours ago was -4.1C, it's not -0.4C and rising 0.3C every hour.

Hmmmm :S

[swainclubber]

i have a really scary feeling that this will completely flop!

Please prove me wrong!

more than likely

[shrike]

Well thats us up in EAST Northern Ireland gettin nothin but sleet now!

Copied wee Angies forecast and she said if we want to see snow we must travel west to Fermanagh lol! Or catch a plane to the Midlands!

Edited February 8, 2007 by CatchMyDrift
Links only to BBC material - breach of copyright otherwise

[PersianPaladin]

i have a really scary feeling that this will completely flop!

Please prove me wrong!

Indeed.....the traditional British cock-up!

[Somerset Squall]

After climbing to nearly 4C, the temp is falling away again, currently 2C. Seems to be going up and down like a yoyo, dry here at the moment with a gusty SE wind.

[January Snowstorm]

Teperature in Jordanstown is a balmy +5.0C at the moment, compared to -1.6 at the same time last night. Can't see any snow here. We had a skiff on Mon. evening, with some places about a mile or so away (mosley) getting about a Cm or so. The local forcast is predicting snow for Fermanagh/Tyrone with rain/sleet elsewhere. Some of the locals are getting carried away, and preparing for the worst !

It looks like the pro's got it wrong big time.

Temps way too high all through Ireland for snow.

Met Eireann couldn't have called it more incorrect

[kold weather]

Locally yeah I honestly think there could be that amount PP, of course its not widespread but esp on higher ground there is every chance of this given rainfall rates currentoly shown in the channel and over the SW. Talking of precip rates in the channel a new strong cell just gone up in the channel to the west of the channel islands, should stay to the south of the UK (though if the front does tilt in time it may reach the SE.) rainfall rates at 22MM now, nearly an inch an hour in terms of snowfall in such a set-up and strengthening, may well be a electric cell as well tohugh obviously I wouldn't be able to tell without a detector!

Everything going as expected, it never wa slikely to snow in the SW or S parts of Ireland, tohugh the met-offic ein Ireland may have under-estimated how much temps wil lbe modified by the atlantic.

Edited February 7, 2007 by kold weather

[love-it]

i have a really scary feeling that this will completely flop!

Please prove me wrong!

This is precisely what the bbc and other forecasters were predicting. Rain in the south, turning to snow the more the precip comes north and east!! Patience!!!

[Nick F]

A meso low is suggested to develop across SE England by noon tomorrow as the upper long-wave trough elongates ESE looking at the 18z GFS - may enhance ppn across London area/E Anglia:

Though highest snowfall totals still likely over the Central belt through Wales, Midlands to the Wash where the T+24 FAX for 18z tomorrow shows front has stalled across here which will prolong snowfall:

[dogs32]

just had saw the odd flake cheltenham

[davehsug]

Philip eden just on 5 live reckoned Northern extent Liverpool to Manchester to Sheffield

Dave

[mathall1]

its now 1 c here in bath Snow predicted any time after 12 comon at this rate temp will be 6 c before it even gets ere lol

[Rustynailer]

Hi Steve, i went for locally upto 9-12 inches over 24hrs on TWO right now, I'd inclined to go for the lower figure but because of the risk of nthe front not going as far north as the models are progging, or at least not as fast I think I had to include the upper range as well.

Those sorts of totals are quite amazing in the Uk, even in the states it wouldn't be sniffed at.

ps, by the way as i said on TWO, frontal system is swinging at the moment, clear tilt now if you flip between 2hr timeframes, intrestingly that appears to be ahea dof plan which will limit the northerly movement of the front even more and fax charts show the front still ovr S.Midlands-East Anglia even at 18z tommorow, this front could well stall like predicted by a few earlier.

Stall is the magic word, which could close a 1000 schools and build 1000000 snowmen, i do hope so.

I have a strong SE'rly blowing here at the mo b/w over 20mph and increasing, turbulence is in the air

Russ

[markp1980]

Locally yeah I honestly think there could be that amount PP, of course its not widespread but esp on higher ground there is every chance of this given rainfall rates currentoly shown in the channel and over the SW. Talking of precip rates in the channel a new strong cell just gone up in the channel to the west of the channel islands, should stay to the south of the UK (though if the front does tilt in time it may reach the SE.) rainfall rates at 22MM now, nearly an inch an hour in terms of snowfall in such a set-up and strengthening, may well be a electric cell as well tohugh obviously I wouldn't be able to tell without a detector!

Everything going as expected, it never wa slikely to snow in the SW or S parts of Ireland, tohugh the met-offic ein Ireland may have under-estimated how much temps wil lbe modified by the atlantic.

Hi Kold,

Any chance of posting up a radar for us to see this?

Thanks

[SMU]

A meso low is suggested to develop across SE England by noon tomorrow looking at the 18z GFS - may enhance ppn across London area/E Anglia:

Though highest snowfall totals still likely over the Central belt through Wales, Midlands to the Wash where the T+24 FAX for 18z tomorrow shows front has stalled across here which will prolong snowfall:

Nick Matey-

Have a look at the 11 & 1130 radar that looks a MEGA easterly jog- not a lot of Northerly Vector.......

S

Edited February 7, 2007 by Steve Murr

[wellington boot]

Well im slightly concerned here. We have got a full layer of cloud - at least i cant see any stars whatsoever, but the temps is around 0.5C. While the cloud is already here so that shouldnt warm us up further, there will presumably be a bunch of warmer (even if only slightly warmer) air which will arrive with any ppn, and that could warm us up too much for proper snow. Plus im worried that we wont even get that much ppn. It looks like its going to shortcut across wales. Its definately less dense as you east. Plus it is progressing quite quickly right now, so it will probably be too far north for me.

[January Snowstorm]

Met Eireann have just admitted they got it wrong on radio.

Only rain for all of Ireland and already clearing in Cork

A major major cock up for the Irish met.

They were forecasting 6-10cms nationwide.

All I can do is laugh

[mathall1]

just had saw the odd flake cheltenham

Dude keep us updated im a little south of you and would like to know when it really gets goin.Dont wanna stay up all night waitin i ll stay awake till 2am and hope for the best lol

[Doc]

Hi January S

I feel I have still some (outside) hope of seeing something if the front starts to rotate as the temp. here has remeined around +2.0 for the last couple of hours - probably total wishful thinking - but I'm still up and looking!

Although given what you said above, I'm probably pi**ing into the wind!

Edited February 8, 2007 by Doc

[stleonardswarm]

A meso low is suggested to develop across SE England by noon tomorrow as the upper long-wave trough elongates ESE looking at the 18z GFS - may enhance ppn across London area/E Anglia:

Though highest snowfall totals still likely over the Central belt through Wales, Midlands to the Wash where the T+24 FAX for 18z tomorrow shows front has stalled across here which will prolong snowfall:

Hi nick from a fellow Royal tun wells citizen!!

My thought ar ethat we are looking at a good dumping tomorrow and for once we will be more favoured than the usual far east of kent.

What are your thoughts and when doyou suspect we will see the first signs here in royal tun wells?

[daveyboi126]

so wat are the snow prospects for southend and when is it expected to arrive many thanks

[kold weather]

Hi Nick, i'm keeping a close eye on that small low pressure system it needs to be watched very closely. i love that fax chart by t ehway, the front stlals just a short distance to my north, any adjustment further south brings my location wlel into the game, however looking at that fax chart I'd guess the front may only clear by id afternoon.

Looking at the latest beeb forecast that has the 18z data has a weaker front BUT also a delayed front, a good 30 miles further south then the 12z output.

By the way, cell mentioned before has really developed into a strong feature, now upto 42MM per hour, close to 2 inches per hour if that came down as snow.

Watch out for similar types of cells to burst out randomly as the front continues to head further inland, where this hpapens expect very severe conditions breifly.

Steve, yeah that is a noteable easterly movement, not suprising as I suspected the front was tilting already more WNW-SES, thats way ahead of what was expected, GFS about 6hrs too slow!

That will limit northerly movement as expected.

JS, i did mention that I weren't sure about Ireland, the air wa salways going to be more marignal due to more modifcation from both the north-sea and the Atlantic plus less time to cool down during the overnight hours BUT its early early days and while upper temps will be starting to warm, evap cooling may well mean that temps will actually drop to levels condusive for snow later on.

Edited February 8, 2007 by kold weather