Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[BristolBlizzard]

I don't understand the fuss, if anywhere got more than 2cm's id be shcoked. GFS shows very small amounts of precipitaion for anything disruptive. Unless someone can explain?

Wow, what a stupid comment. No offence but your in for a big shock if you dont think anywhere will see more then 2cm's.

[get my drift]

Right ready boys and girls. If you look at the fax chart for Monday ,youll see ive highlighted in red the 528 dam which is the general consensus for snow at sea level, [the whole of the uk is under that!] the lines in blue are bands of snow showers which could well give a good covering to many places later on Monday and any accumulations will drift in that bitter east north east wind. The real fun and games start in the early hours of Tuesday morning with that low moving slowly north , you,ll notice with this second chart we are still under that 528 dam line ,and the area in Blue is where I expect the heaviest of the snow, perhaps up to 12 inches in some favoured spots with drifting as well. It all depends how far north and how fast that low pushes its fronts across our area. There is potential for severe wintry weather in these synoptics but the devil will be in the detail, last minute changes can make a massive difference. Thats my thoughts at the moment....

Superb post. I admire your optimism and hope the low moves north slowly. So much so they need to close your world famous ferry!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Ambroseden - North Oxfordshire ??? I thought you were east of Bicester ?

I reckon I'm in the firing line at 720ft up. Coal bunker, oil tank, freezer & wine cellar - all full, so bring it on !!!!

[snowking]

My 1000th post will be a simple one

I think people doubting snowfall need to remember the very showery nature of the stream being set up, any NWP's barring perhaps the NMM are far too ow res to predict showers

Being that we are under the influence of low pressure too there is not the issue of showers dying out as they cross the country. Add to this south of the pennines there is no real shelter from higher ground to the east of central and western areas and you have the formula for some serious totals

The situation is such that a lot of areas are likely to end up with similar amounts. Whilst the east has more precip, its also here where during monday and into tuesday things may become far more marginal, where as further west its likely to remain as snow until well into tuesday

Of course though it will largely be a case of nowcasting, as is the case with most showery streams

SK

[Albion Snowman]

Is it likely that as soon as the snow falls that pesky Mild Sector will turn everything back to rain or will we return to colder conditions with a reload from the NE? The MO are saying a slow thaw during tuesday onwards with no mention a cold reload? I hope they are wrong? Could anyone clear this up?

Oh and would anyone kindly guess who much snow i could be in for 5 miles NW of Birmingham and 170m/560ft ASL?

Thanks.

Edited January 31, 2009 by Albion Snowman

[MKN]

Right ready boys and girls. If you look at the fax chart for Monday ,youll see ive highlighted in red the 528 dam which is the general consensus for snow at sea level, [the whole of the uk is under that!] the lines in blue are bands of snow showers which could well give a good covering to many places later on Monday and any accumulations will drift in that bitter east north east wind. The real fun and games start in the early hours of Tuesday morning with that low moving slowly north , you,ll notice with this second chart we are still under that 528 dam line ,and the area in Blue is where I expect the heaviest of the snow, perhaps up to 12 inches in some favoured spots with drifting as well. It all depends how far north and how fast that low pushes its fronts across our area. There is potential for severe wintry weather in these synoptics but the devil will be in the detail, last minute changes can make a massive difference. Thats my thoughts at the moment....

The fact is the 2nd chart you show where you say we are still under the 528 dam isnt quite true as everywhere east of birmingham isnt anymore.

[Rustynailer]

If it ends up being "the great sleet storm of February 2009", although disappointing it will still be fun getting there.

In the event of "The great sleet storm" Netweather TV will have to set up a post traumatic stress disorder councilor on the MOD discussion thread, if they don't I think the Red cross and Red crescent may well step in

Actually I think it will snow, even all the way down here by the sea, the back edge rain will hopefully be a non event too Perhaps that is too optimistic by the sea, who knows...

Snow on the ground for a day or two here, 70/ 80% chance, IMO

Russ

[ANYWEATHER]

Is it likely that as soon as the snow falls that pesky Mild Sector will turn everything back to rain or will we return to colder conditions with a reload from the NE? The MO are saying a slow thaw during tuesday onwards with no mention a cold reload? I hope they are wrong? Could anyone clear this up?

Oh and would anyone kindly guess who much snow i could be in for 5 miles NW of Birmingham and 170m/560ft ASL?

Thanks.

The latest 06z gfs [which in my eyes was a bad run] keeps the cold conditions right into Weds and so does the meto fax as well! You could be in line for at least 6 inches of snow, and after weds lets hope the ecm model is right and keeps the cold conditions going!

[dogs32]

wish they didnt split the threads up..lol

now its harder to see whats happening

first snow hitting GERMANY

Edited January 31, 2009 by dogs32

[MKN]

wish they didnt split the threads up..lol

now its harder to see whats happening

first snow hitting GERMANY

true although once the snow does start falling it wont be difficult to see which part of the country is having the best of it.

[dogs32]

true although once the snow does start falling it wont be difficult to see which part of the country is having the best of it.

well any way we are on the best thread with the most snowfall predictions

Edited January 31, 2009 by dogs32

[patrickshere]

Infact areas closest in proximity to the warm sector, without being directly inside it, are likely to recieve the heaviest precipitation

SK

Going to be oh so marginal here in Aylesbury I'm thinking as the warm sector moves in.

[Albion Snowman]

The latest 06z gfs [which in my eyes was a bad run] keeps the cold conditions right into Weds and so does the meto fax as well! You could be in line for at least 6 inches of snow, and after weds lets hope the ecm model is right and keeps the cold conditions going!

Thanks! Just what i wanted to hear! . Looks like a pretty good event for the Mids then!

[dogs32]

which county will ahve the prize of the biggest IGLOO...

looking good here I MUST SAY..camera on charge...Monday booked off

Edited January 31, 2009 by dogs32

[jk]

Have I missed something ?,

Are we in for some snow soon All 1cm of it can't wait,

Actually I think we maybe too far west this time though, It's going to be interesting though to see just how much snow we do get.

jk.

[LLWA]

Right ready boys and girls. If you look at the fax chart for Monday ,youll see ive highlighted in red the 528 dam which is the general consensus for snow at sea level, [the whole of the uk is under that!] the lines in blue are bands of snow showers which could well give a good covering to many places later on Monday and any accumulations will drift in that bitter east north east wind. The real fun and games start in the early hours of Tuesday morning with that low moving slowly north , you,ll notice with this second chart we are still under that 528 dam line ,and the area in Blue is where I expect the heaviest of the snow, perhaps up to 12 inches in some favoured spots with drifting as well. It all depends how far north and how fast that low pushes its fronts across our area. There is potential for severe wintry weather in these synoptics but the devil will be in the detail, last minute changes can make a massive difference. Thats my thoughts at the moment....

Although i should be posting this on the south east england and london thread i really love you blue ling right over my area good on you mate.

[get my drift]

Although i should be posting this on the south east england and london thread i really love you blue ling right over my area good on you mate.

Posting on the wrong thread. Never known before on this site!!!!

[7andY]

Right ready boys and girls. If you look at the fax chart for Monday ,youll see ive highlighted in red the 528 dam which is the general consensus for snow at sea level, [the whole of the uk is under that!] the lines in blue are bands of snow showers which could well give a good covering to many places later on Monday and any accumulations will drift in that bitter east north east wind. The real fun and games start in the early hours of Tuesday morning with that low moving slowly north , you,ll notice with this second chart we are still under that 528 dam line ,and the area in Blue is where I expect the heaviest of the snow, perhaps up to 12 inches in some favoured spots with drifting as well. It all depends how far north and how fast that low pushes its fronts across our area. There is potential for severe wintry weather in these synoptics but the devil will be in the detail, last minute changes can make a massive difference. Thats my thoughts at the moment....

My reading of the second fax chart is that the 528 dam has moved out of the uk and into the Atlantic. It also doesn't follow on along the South coast, but veers off the SW approaches and across towards N France, then back into the Atlantic, with that Atlantic being under it. We are between the 528 and 564 dam lines...

7&Y

[lesta_snow]

anyone think leicester will get any snow?

i wouldn't mind atleast 1cm ahah

[isleofwightsnowgal]

afternoon all, the home page says 100% chance for the IOW 2 moz but im not gettin 2 excited as it nearly always misses us!!!

What do you all think?? do we have a good chance .....or not???

Fingers crossed!!!

[conor123]

For us in the West Midlands there should be some snow flurries from around this time tommorow continuing through the night followed by more general moderate snow through Monday which will be heaviest the further north & east you are though the coldest air staying longest over Worcestershire/Gloucestershire areas.

[dogs32]

anyone think leicester will get any snow?

i wouldn't mind atleast 1cm ahah

I will be gobsmacked if 1cm falls here..Infact I WILL NEVER beleive the BBC again

it will be a massive swear word in my house..lol

Edited January 31, 2009 by dogs32

[smarty81]

well any way we are on the best thread with the most snowfall predictions

And yes hopefully with a slow moving front, who knows how many cms/inches we could get?

[tom_f123]

anyone think leicester will get any snow?

i wouldn't mind atleast 1cm ahah

5-10cm could fall anywhere in the midlands imo, maybe more over higher ground

[dogs32]

slightly off topic...anyone got balls eye on the dart board..Just out of curiosty...its impossible

sorry I think we are in for a treat here..even if its 5 cm.....but hopefully like the bbc guy mabey more

Edited January 31, 2009 by dogs32