Snow Watch: N&w Yorkshire, Northern & Ne England

[paul tall]

Having our heaviest shower now.

These pics taken about 10 mins ago - not much, but more than I was expecting watching the radar an hour ago.

[stormchaser1]

Same here Nigel. Just looked at the met office radar and seems to intensified all of a sudden .

Im just up the road from you im in Gosforth 217ft ASL

current temp here +0.1c dew point -2.0c wet bulb -0.6c

nigel

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

It's still coming down moderately here, maybe about a cm covering now. If only it would stall over us!

Looks like the snow has even breached Pauls snow dome!

[Yeti]

not sure about Newcastle/Tyne and Wear, at the moment it looks like it might not get that far N.

HOWEVER, the reason for all this shifting N is actually the way the low is developing at the moment. It's deepening quickly which expands the baroclinic zone, and also is moving more Nwards than forecast. If this trend continues we may see more shunts N by tomorrow morning

[Lakes Tom]

Sorry there mods got a bit carried away in all the excitement.

Very good news tonight re. the channel low, we now have this 50 miles further N and this is making all the difference. All models now are moving N in line with each other, except for one model which has remained steady throughout - the ECM. Now, this might make you think it must be wrong but IMO this may not be the case. All other models have shifted about a lot (and are still shifting) except the ECM which has kept consistent:

(chart of the day for Yorkshire and Durham): http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkom...208_1200_36.png

We may see that this trend continues N and we see the ECM right in the end, on the other hand the ECM may back down. But its consistency must mean something and it is the most reliable model in general.

Other two great pieces of news tonight are the GFS 18z, which only needs another 20 miles for a snow fest for all of N Yorks even, and the UKMO, which is almost identical

Can you remember what the ECM and GFS precipitation charts showed for last Fridays (or was it Thursday?! - so many snow events!) low at the last moment? Were the charts like this (and the snow frustratingly didn't make it into West/North Yorkshire) or are this evenings chart better?

Edited February 8, 2009 by Lakes Tom

[James M]

not sure about Newcastle/Tyne and Wear, at the moment it looks like it might not get that far N.

HOWEVER, the reason for all this shifting N is actually the way the low is developing at the moment. It's deepening quickly which expands the baroclinic zone, and also is moving more Nwards than forecast. If this trend continues we may see more shunts N by tomorrow morning :lol:

Well I hope it doesn't go too far north and we end up with rain, it would be just our luck for that to happen though.

[grab my graupel]

Having our heaviest shower now.

These pics taken about 10 mins ago - not much, but more than I was expecting watching the radar an hour ago.

Fantasic Paul, that's a rare sight.

It's still snowing here too. As you say it's turning out to be much better than we thought.

Has anyone missed out on here tonight?

[Yeti]

Can you remember what the ECM and GFS precipitation charts showed for last Fridays low at the last moment? Were the charts like this (and the snow frustratingly didn't make it into West/North Yorkshire) or are this evenings chart better?

If I remember rightly the GFS had things about 20 miles further S than they actually reached although it did a pretty good job. No idea about the ECM, didn't see it.

Basically if you want to nowcast, watch for two things - the low deepening more than forecast (as this will expand the baroclinic zone, basically where the fronts are) and look for it moving as N as possible. This site is good:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

Use the grid squares to work out exactly where it is, then at every 6hr interval compare this with the GFS/ECM/UKMO e.g. look at the satellite at midnight and see how this compares with the ECM and UKMO for the same timeframe, with the GFS 18z obviously this will have to be 3am! The bigger and further N the difference, the better.

[lorrie]

Snowflakes are getting bigger and the snow is getting heavy got a lovely covering....hoping it gets better

[Yeti]

Well I hope it doesn't go too far north and we end up with rain, it would be just our luck for that to happen though. :lol:

yes that would be awful! No signs of that happening yet though, plenty of room for change, I reckon we can afford another 50-70miles further N than the GFS before we have to worry about that.

Remember, the heaviest snow tomorrow night will be as close to the snow-rain line as possible.

[paul tall]

I've got no radar at the moment, so don't know what is coming but the sky seems to be quite full of showers to the west.

Anybody with radar tell me if there is more coming or is that it?

[Lakes Tom]

If I remember rightly the GFS had things about 20 miles further S than they actually reached although it did a pretty good job. No idea about the ECM, didn't see it.

Basically if you want to nowcast, watch for two things - the low deepening more than forecast (as this will expand the baroclinic zone, basically where the fronts are) and look for it moving as N as possible. This site is good:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

Use the grid squares to work out exactly where it is, then at every 6hr interval compare this with the GFS/ECM/UKMO e.g. look at the satellite at midnight and see how this compares with the ECM and UKMO for the same timeframe, with the GFS 18z obviously this will have to be 3am! The bigger and further N the difference, the better.

Cheers Yeti. Hehe - might leave that one til tomorrow though!

[sickofspam]

Evening chaps, I'm in Springwell Gateshead, and we have a reasonable covering. Hope its nice and deep tomorrow am :lol:

Cheers

Lee

[Yeti]

I've got no radar at the moment, so don't know what is coming but the sky seems to be quite full of showers to the west.

Anybody with radar tell me if there is more coming or is that it?

That's it.

[Schnee]

When is this low meant to hit us tomorrow???

I'm off Kickboxing for the first time in over a year tomorrow.

[snow_mad_09]

Well that BBC forecast wasn't very nice to us in the North

[Freezing-Point]

Snowflakes are getting bigger and the snow is getting heavy got a lovely covering....hoping it gets better

The flakes are that small here its like someone is sprinkling icing sugar.

[Andy_]

had some snow eventually geordiesnow haha was moderate but very light now though looks to be stopping, got a dusting though

Edited February 8, 2009 by Andy Sabb

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Evening chaps, I'm in Springwell Gateshead, and we have a reasonable covering. Hope its nice and deep tomorrow am

Cheers

Lee

Hi Lee, welcome to Netweather

I think that'll be it for tonight now, maybe one more shower if we're lucky.

[Geordiesnow]

The flakes are that small here its like someone is sprinkling icing sugar.

Yeah, flakes are smaller here aswell but still coming down in an intensity which will add to the dusting i do have at the moment, sadly it would appear Tyne And Wear has missed the heaviest of the PPN again, oh well.

Good 2 hear Hebburn has got some snowfall at last.

Edited February 8, 2009 by Geordiesnow

[grab my graupel]

Well looking at the radar, it appears the fat lady has sung for my location. I must say, though, I'm rather satisfied with the result

It seems to be around 2cms to my eyes, and I still had lying snow from earlier in the week.

Quite a good evening in the end, for here.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Here's the next little bit i'm watching for, east of Carlisle...

I wouldn't mind a slight top-up

Also here's all the ppn which has fallen in the last 12 hours, showing that the NE has got the least, which isn't unusual in these setups...

[Lakes Tom]

Just watched the 10.27 BBC weather. Definite shift of the projected snow risks - now includes area up to and including North Yorkshire!

[stormchaser1]

Evening chaps, I'm in Springwell Gateshead, and we have a reasonable covering. Hope its nice and deep tomorrow am

Cheers

Lee

i dont , i have to get to work tomorrow at the hospital {QE}

[paul tall]

Just watched the 10.27 BBC weather. Definite shift of the projected snow risks - now includes area up to and including North Yorkshire!

not far enough!

I'm 10 miles north of the North Yorkshire boundary.