March CET

[Thundery wintry showers]

CET looking likely to come out above average overall unless we get some fairly persistent and/or intense cold in the last third of the month. We could well be looking at a figure over 7.5C by the 20th.

Also worth keeping an eye on is the sunshine totals. It is at 126% over England and Wales at the moment, but the coming week looks set to be very sunny, which should cause that percentage to skyrocket. If it stays that way- whether as a result of continued high pressure, or a possible change to sunshine-and-showers northerlies in the last third of March, we could well see the high totals of Marches 1995 and 2007 beaten and maybe even approach the 2003 total.

For Scotland and Northern Ireland, too, sunshine totals, about average at the moment, are likely to rise substantially, and due to a general lack of outstandingly sunny Marches other than 2003 in recent years, we could see a "second sunniest March since" record dating back many years being on the cards.

[damianslaw]

Mmm just over the half way mark and if the models verify as suggested today, then the chances of a below CET I say are looking quite slim, however, I'll still stick with my thoughts of only just above average, if the high sticks in situ we will maintain some low mins helping to keep the CET down.

[summer blizzard]

Phillip Eden has the current CET as 6.7C and climbing, could be pushing 8C by the end of the weekend.

[Stu_London]

Phillip Eden has the current CET as 6.7C and climbing, could be pushing 8C by the end of the weekend.

Assuming you mean the end of the weekend - a CET of 11.5C would be required between now and then to achieve 8C

If you meant the beginning of the weekend - then 13.2C per day is needed to get to 8C

Neither are very likely - somewhere around early to mid 7s much more likely with a good chance the CET might fall slightly in the final week

[Snowly does it]

Assuming you mean the end of the weekend - a CET of 11.5C would be required between now and then to achieve 8C

If you meant the beginning of the weekend - then 13.2C per day is needed to get to 8C

Neither are very likely - somewhere around early to mid 7s much more likely with a good chance the CET might fall slightly in the final week

I'd agree with that - it will be nowhere near 8 by the end of the weekend, it probably won't be anywhere near 8 by the end of the month either.

It will be just over 7 by the end of the weekend - maybe.

[Kentish Man]

Both Philip Eden's Climate UK (Manley) and Met Office Hadley currently have CET readings of 6.7C (Mar 1 - 17). This is 0.8C above the 1971/00 running mean.

[The PIT]

Hadley at 6.9C 1.5C above the norm.

[damianslaw]

Think come tomorrow we will have reached the highest point that the CET will get too this month , expect a downward correction from then until probably the very end of the month - still believe we will not be far off the average albeit slightly above come months end. Would be interested to know just what the average CET would need to be from now until months end in order to get a CET that is only say 0.2-0.5 degree range of above average.

[reef]

Im quite suprised the CET hasnt risen by more so far at this point. Looking at the figures it seems the colder nights in the zone have really taken their toll on the mean.

The last 10 days have come in at 8.2C, which although mild, isnt much more than the last 10 days of February (7.4C).

Assuming tomorrow comes in at 8.0C (it could be lower in fact), we would need:

5.0C to reach the 1971-2000 average of 6.3C

3.2C to reach the 1971-2000 average of 5.7C

Though it must be remembered the final value could well be adjusted downwards.

[Snowly does it]

Im quite suprised the CET hasnt risen by more so far at this point. Looking at the figures it seems the colder nights in the zone have really taken their toll on the mean.

The last 10 days have come in at 8.2C, which although mild, isnt much more than the last 10 days of February (7.4C).

Assuming tomorrow comes in at 8.0C (it could be lower in fact), we would need:

5.0C to reach the 1971-2000 average of 6.3C

3.2C to reach the 1971-2000 average of 5.7C

Though it must be remembered the final value could well be adjusted downwards.

Quite possible it will adjust downwards - whilst minima have been low, on Hadley they have been higher than Manley - Manley had Fri night/Sat morn as sub zero and Hadley have it as 1.3 for example.

It should remain at 6.9 on Hadley for yesterdays update and probably for today too and then a gradual adjustment downwards perhaps - I can't see the adjusted figure being below average from here, I anticipate and adjusted 6.4 or 6.5 to end the month. Average despite an extended mild spell and no real cold snaps of any duration or intensity. Kind of the opposite to the 'it should have been colder' months we are so used to.

[reef]

Quite possible it will adjust downwards - whilst minima have been low, on Hadley they have been higher than Manley - Manley had Fri night/Sat morn as sub zero and Hadley have it as 1.3 for example.

It should remain at 6.9 on Hadley for yesterdays update and probably for today too and then a gradual adjustment downwards perhaps - I can't see the adjusted figure being below average from here, I anticipate and adjusted 6.4 or 6.5 to end the month. Average despite an extended mild spell and no real cold snaps of any duration or intensity. Kind of the opposite to the 'it should have been colder' months we are so used to.

Indeed, the current value of 6.9C looks to be the peak for the month. Yesterday did indeed come in lower than 8C as expected, but again Im suprised by how much lower. In fact the 7.2C down on Hadley for the day actually looks rather close to average.

As you say, despite a lack of any real cold snaps and a prolonged period of warm days, it seems this month may just finish a marginally above average. Indeed, if we end on 6.4 or 6.5C, a downward correction could send it equal the 1971-2000 mean of 6.3C. Astonishing really considering.

[Eugene]

Phillip eden has it at +0.7 upto the 21st, wow its hardly moved since i last looked (+0.5C) and illustrates it hasn't been a proper warm spell, nights have been too cold for that.

[The PIT]

Phillip eden has it at +0.7 upto the 21st, wow its hardly moved since i last looked (+0.5C) and illustrates it hasn't been a proper warm spell, nights have been too cold for that.

And next week we'll probably have the reverse. Day time temps close to average while night temps above normal due to cloud and wind. Perhaps.

[Snowyowl9]

It has felt warm in the daytime with all this sunshine,colder nights looked to of kept the CET lower though not as I `d say it was that cold at all.

Most notable thing about this month though is how dry it is.

As for next week it`s going to feel alot colder/wet windy at times not very nice at this time of year.

[The PIT]

It has felt warm in the daytime with all this sunshine,colder nights looked to of kept the CET lower though not as I `d say it was that cold at all.

Most notable thing about this month though is how dry it is.

As for next week it`s going to feel alot colder/wet windy at times not very nice at this time of year.

Country file had figures around normal so shouldn't feel to bad. Double figures most days for most but we should get the rain total up a little bit.

[Terminal Moraine]

Yes, after a fairly wet start it's on the verge of becoming a dry month. Bar an easterly blast of Siberian intensity in the remaining days of the month my guess for March will be so hopelessly low as to be laughable.

[The PIT]

Yes, after a fairly wet start it's on the verge of becoming a dry month. Bar an easterly blast of Siberian intensity in the remaining days of the month my guess for March will be so hopelessly low as to be laughable.

Same here.

[morfius]

It certainly has been very dry here - the ground has been rock solid for weeks, in fact, when the winds picked up earlier, there was a bit of a dust storm around here. The ground is now soaked after the heavier than expected showers.

[damianslaw]

A good chance now that the final CET will be very close to the average - my 6.5 degrees guess is looking quite good at this stage, maxima by end of week in CET zone look like being about 9 and minima about 2 which equals 5.5 degrees - northern parts distinctly colder with some cold nights coming up in the polar air cold days, for Scotland probably some low means of about 3.5-4 degrees by weekend. (maxes of 7 mins of 0).

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is up to 7.0 today (Mar 1 - 24).

The windy, relatively mild nights and average days are more effective at increasing the CET than the warm days and cold nights of last week. Ironically most members of the public if asked would say the weather is much cooler this week than last.

[The PIT]

Hadley is up to 7.0 today (Mar 1 - 24).

The windy, relatively mild nights and average days are more effective at increasing the CET than the warm days and cold nights of last week. Ironically most members of the public if asked would say the weather is much cooler this week than last.

Too be honest I'm thinking where is the cooler weather. 11.1C here today far from being cooler.

[Stargazer]

Saturday and Sunday may drag the CET down a little (looks like there will be one or two cold nights, and daytime maxima near or slightly below average) - but in the end I think a significant departure from 7.0 looks unlikely.

I must agree that the combination of mild windy nights and wind chill making days with near-average temperatures seem cold certainly makes this week seem much colder than last week, even if it actually isn't.

Edited March 26, 2009 by Stargazer

[Don]

Indeed, this week has been milder than expected, even though it feels somewhat colder than last week. As for the CET, I think my punt of 7C could well be close to the mark this month. I was hoping it would be colder, but the disappointing mild weather that started mid February with the exception of the cold snap earlier this month has continued. That said, the weather last week was very pleasant.

[Stu_London]

My 6.7 looks nice - probably need a Hadley Shuffle at month end to get there.

[Bobd29]

My 6.7 looks nice - probably need a Hadley Shuffle at month end to get there.

I'll toss you for it Stu with my 6.6, going to come down to the usual month end adjustment imo lol.