Storm Risk Discussion

[maidstone weather]

Lol! Trust me, it wasnt a supercell - nothing to get up a 6:30am for, just a few crackly rumbles and sheet lightning (3 I think)

But, look at how it intensified to the south and then as it moved a bit further North, death becomes it. Yes, I got some thunder and lightning, but when it realised where it was it soon turned the switch off lol

yeah the Home Counties to the NW & N of London look like they're having fun.

And look the rainband has fragmented and decayed as it crossed over Kent - I'm saying nothing <_<

We've had 8.8mm so far today, which is the most rainfall to fall in one day since 3rd March! :lol:

[JamieUK]

Have to do a 38mile sponsored cycleride in a little while, im dreading going out in this really heavy rain...gonna make the ride a whole lot harder anyway lol <_<

[maidstone weather]

I'm on the edge of the front at the moment, clear blue sky to my south and it is still raining. Very odd that it is raining right up until the last minute before the sun comes out <_<

[loopydreamer]

quite heavy rain here and i just heard a rumble of thunder <_<

[YokTok]

Just popped out into the Garden and the system is now just off to my north and there is some fantastic Mammatus which appeared to be quite low until a 747 flew underneath it and I realised how high the c'base is <_<

[tinybill]

It's only 6am and im not anywere near the thunderstorm storm risk map showing the SW with thloundrstorms, but here In the the SE/ SW London i report beiung awoken by multiple thunderstrikes, <_< maybe IC lightning butit shoulded Boomy, there goes another! :lol:

http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom...x=229&y=254

looks like their storms in the band at the moment

met office have a weather warning out for to-day

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html

East of England Yorkshire & Humber West Midlands London & South East England East MidlandsHeavy RainSun 7 JunThere is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Central and Southern England. A band of heavy rain will move northwards during Sunday with heavy and thundery showers following. There is the potential for a further 20 to 40mm of rainfall. The rain and showers easing during the evening.

Issued at: 0719 Sun 7 Jun

[Louby]

Just seen this on the back edge of the rain, tis heading towards caterham. Now in lovely sunshine.

[YokTok]

Just seen this on the back edge of the rain, tis heading towards caterham. Now in lovely sunshine.

How spooky is that, I've just taken the same pics as you <_< although mine were on my I-Phone. And if I'm correct your pictures are also taken looking towards Gatton :lol:

Edited June 7, 2009 by YokTok

[Louby]

actually no YT, Gatton is westish to us, I am actually in Merstham and the picture was taken over the M25 <_<

We had 12mm of rain over night, most of it around 5am according to Rat.

[YokTok]

actually no YT, Gatton is westish to us, I am actually in Merstham and the picture was taken over the M25 <_<

We had 12mm of rain over night, most of it around 5am according to Rat.

Yep, it absolutely honked it down and I heard a solitary rumble of thunder around 6:10. The sky to my west was v.impressive around 7:45 and it's getting v.warm out there so hopefully something will happen later.

[Louby]

Yep, it absolutely honked it down and I heard a solitary rumble of thunder around 6:10. The sky to my west was v.impressive around 7:45 and it's getting v.warm out there so hopefully something will happen later.

yeah it hasn't produced too much in they way of rumbles has it <_<

[Soopdragon]

Wind has picked up with thunder rumbling in the distance now, although sferics aren't showing. From the radar and satellite it Looks like this band may sit and rotate round us for a while.

[MP-R]

Had some very heavy rain last night and gusty windsa round 3am but all quiet and drying now.

[dogs32]

good chance today I reckon.....In the UK

would be nice to be Austria today with a level 2

Edited June 7, 2009 by dogs32

[maidstone weather]

Up goes the convection nice and early

14.9C

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Has been quite heavy/squally showers this morning, with some hail mixed in too.

The wind isnt strong, but we've had one or two rumbles of thunder (Actually, the loudest rumble just heard as i'm typing this).

Looks like it could be quite a good day

[dogs32]

looked like a quite active TS towards S/E London in the early hrs with the strikes

[Rustynailer]

Just two rumbles of thunder last night, heavy rain was great.

Convection must be taking place, cloud appearing over us from the SW and growing as it passes over

Radar looks good to the SW too. Off to the Needles to have a look.

Russ

[VillagePlank]

Here's the skew-t for London in the S/E at lunchtime (my target period for the last three or four days)

This translates into a forecast of convection will be hard to initiate from regular atmospheric parameters, but, if and when it does, any cells formed should be very heavy, and be of a t/storm nature

The suspicion is, of course, that there are other trigger factors in play, today, so watch out for those, and, rapid surface heating.

Edited June 7, 2009 by VillagePlank

[03jtrickey]

I set the alarm for 4am. I seem to remember turning it off quickly, after not hearing any rain.

Was anyone up in Cheltenham? Did I miss much? It looks like it was just heavy rain to me...

[dogs32]

I set the alarm for 4am. I seem to remember turning it off quickly, after not hearing any rain.

Was anyone up in Cheltenham? Did I miss much? It looks like it was just heavy rain to me...

lol..........no.....just very heavy rain thats about it......today we might get lucky

[Costa Del Fal]

Weve missed out by a few miles again. Thunderstorm not far away and heavy rain is going all around here, infact its hardly raining here now.

[A.J]

Ooh my head!...I'm never drinking again, honest!, well at least not until next weekend!.....Anyhoos, torrential rain here in Penkridge, and 2 rather loud rumbles of thunder these past 5 minutes.....The front is certainly quite active, and heavy pulses of rain are training east to west along the front, so some large totals possible before it pulls away

[VillagePlank]

It would seem that Estofex concur with biggest risk being around lunchtime:

Ahead of an approaching upper low over the Channel region, some hundred J/kg CAPE should be available. Deep layer shear should be best near the left exit region of a 30 m/s jet streak over NE France where strong QG forcing is forecast. Initiation will take place around midday and there will be some organized multicells and maybe also a few short-lived supercells. Rich BL moisture and about 10 m/s LLS will provide good conditions for a few tornadoes but strong tornadoes should be unlikely. Additionally, some marginally severe hail is possible and severe gusts due to downward transport of momentum are not ruled out as there are quite strong winds in the mid and lower levels.

It's the upper low that is providing for the instability (so only moderate amounts of insolation required) and the deep shear (wind going in different directions - the spinning top effect) that will provide the lift to make clouds.

[sunny scunny]

Weve missed out by a few miles again. Thunderstorm not far away and heavy rain is going all around here, infact its hardly raining here now.

Nothing here this weekend,even though it was forecast to be a very wet weekend

The rain to my south looks like stalling and missing my area AGAIN