Storm/convective Discussion

[Lynxus]

Wow something has exploded up north, Check out blitzortung.

Currently 18c

Edited June 15, 2009 by Lynxus

[conor123]

Woah just had a massive CG strike to the SSW and it was fairly close, loud loud thunder followed 2 seconds after

Temp 15.3c

Edited June 15, 2009 by conor123

[Kain]

Woah just had a massive CG strike to the SSW and it was fairly close, loud loud thunder followed 2 seconds after

Temp 15.3c

Yup Conor, I think I just heard that rumble too!

[Dave Clarke]

FWIW, UKMO Nae model breaks out heavy convective precipition in the London and areas SE of it today!

Do any of you use the sferic chart http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar ???

It uses UKMO Atd data

[sunny scunny]

Although a lot of high level cloud that looks hazy is this what i dont want lol?

It's been like that for a few hours here,although more blue sky is starting to appear

fingers crossed for something later

Edited June 15, 2009 by sufc

[maidstone weather]

FWIW, UKMO Nae model breaks out heavy convective precipition in the London and areas SE of it today!

Do any of you use the sferic chart http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar ???

It uses UKMO Atd data

when?

[Gordon]

Cells firing up all over the place now. I'm marking South Lincolnshire to get the storm of the day (Frequent CGs and marble sized hail). For me I think at best, a moderate thunderstorm.

As I Hate them I would rather have none

But If I am to have one the less severe the better

[JamieUK]

Current Conditions here, 18C but seems alot warmer, very slight S/SW winds.

Current Sky Condition:

[Lewis]

It's been like that for a few hours here,although more blue sky is starting to appear

fingers crossed for something later

Yep both me and you are going to take a battering! You in particular been slightly south of me.

[Dave Clarke]

when?

15z - 18z

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/Dave/15z.jpg

[dave48]

FWIW, UKMO Nae model breaks out heavy convective precipition in the London and areas SE of it today!

Do any of you use the sferic chart http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar ???

It uses UKMO Atd data

I always use that one, it is by far the most accurate. All the others are somewhere between wrong and completely wrong.

[VillagePlank]

6z Update for London this evening.

T_cMax is higher, T_dMax is slightly lower and can now be categorised as close to marginal, cloud heights remain reasonably high at some 28km, whilst cloud base is still around 950hPa.

This shows a moderately convective scenario (K=31) and a marginal (for t/storms) unstable atmosphere (LI=-4) Showers are expected to form widely, and there will be a scattering of severe showers (TT=55) and in any event most showers will produce heavy precipitation, with some hail, but not large hail, a possibility (CAPE=917)

Shear is present with speed shear reasonable at about 350hPa, and directional shear very marginal at around 850hPa. Funnel clouds may form, but it is unlikely that they will touch down and form tornadoes.

This is based on surface heating to at least 17C from 18z to nightfall. As temperatures approach 17C, and fall below 17C the chance of thunderstorm creation will be significantly curtailed.

Edited June 15, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Cal]

It's been like that for a few hours here,although more blue sky is starting to appear

fingers crossed for something later

Indeed the blue skies are appearing , the convergance zone is slightly further west, we have a light easterly breeze, expect to see some crackers this afternoon around this area .

[dogs32]

i have only been away for an hour and on radar there is an explosion of precip

[conor123]

Been lashing it down with a mix of rain & hail for the past 5 minutes here, just easing off now and its weirdly going very bright, it looks like the cell to the South is suddenly weakening pretty fast whilst the one which has gone over is intensifying to the north.

Total of 4 CG's, 2 distant flashes, and about 11 rumbles of thunder (5 loud) from that cell, somewhat unexpected aswell.

Edited June 15, 2009 by conor123

[dave48]

I can see some very strong towers now, the type you might see developing on a thunderstorm. Things really starting to kick off now in northern England too.

[philglossop]

Didn't notice any thunder, but there's been a phenomenal rainstorm over East Exeter (just clearing up now- visibility very low, everywhere drenched!)

That must have been the shower we had about 930 this morning. Very humid here now, but get the feeling we'll be the breeding ground for you in East Devon!

[sunny scunny]

Indeed the blue skies are appearing , the convergance zone is slightly further west, we have a light easterly breeze, expect to see some crackers this afternoon around this area .

It's very dry around this area, so hopefully lot's of downpours later to make up for the frustration

of missing out last week

[Dave Clarke]

TS sferics up and down the country, mainly to the west from Scotland down to the Midlands. Also, cell nr Corby, Northants now electrified. Reports of CC lightning in Sheffield recently.

Edited June 15, 2009 by Dave Clarke

[Darren Bown]

Nasty looking towers to my north, and haven'y felt it this humid in a looooong time. Here's hoping for a fun afternoon!

[Gordon]

I can see some very strong towers now, the type you might see developing on a thunderstorm. Things really starting to kick off now in northern England too.

Good Let Northern England Keep It

[Lewis]

Good Let Northern England Keep It

Thanks Will keep you posted, looks like the cell accross sheffield is pushing towards me and intensifying, i believe that this current cell will be the strongest of the day upto now.

Edited June 15, 2009 by Lewis

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks like Southern coastal areas will stay dry, nothing here so far, and it seems like showers are building in more inland areas

[dogs32]

met update for more of the SOUTH WEST

Strathclyde Heavy Rain 0822 Mon 15 2300 Mon 15 Heavy Rain 1100 Mon 15 2300 Mon 15 Heavy Rain 1100 Mon 15 2300 Mon 15 Central, Tayside & Fife Heavy Rain 1100 Mon 15 2300 Mon 15 Heavy Rain 1100 Mon 15 2300 Mon 15 SW Scotland, Lothian & Borders Heavy Rain 1100 Mon 15 2300 Mon 15 Heavy Rain 1100 Mon 15 2300 Mon 15 Northern Ireland Heavy Rain 1000 Mon 15 2100 Mon 15 Wales Heavy Rain 1000 Mon 15 2100 Mon 15 North West England Heavy Rain 1200 Mon 15 2200 Mon 15 North East England Heavy Rain 1200 Mon 15 2359 Mon 15 Yorkshire & Humber Heavy Rain 1200 Mon 15 2359 Mon 15 West Midlands Heavy Rain 1200 Mon 15 2200 Mon 15 East Midlands Heavy Rain 1200 Mon 15 2359 Mon 15 East of England Heavy Rain 1200 Mon 15 2359 Mon 15 South West England Heavy Rain 1000 Mon 15 2100 Mon 15 Heavy Rain 1200 Mon 15 2200 Mon 15 Heavy Rain 1300 Mon 15 2100 Mon 15 London & South East England Heavy Rain 1200 Mon 15 2359 Mon 15

[A.J]

Woah just had a massive CG strike to the SSW and it was fairly close, loud loud thunder followed 2 seconds after

Temp 15.3c

I can see that storm from my front garden...it looks a beast, and its heading towards me!

and a radar grab to show the storm + new cells to the west and SW of my postcode

a quick edit...first rumble of thunder heard to my SW

Edited June 15, 2009 by ajpoolshark