Storm/convective Discussion

[Kookylou]

there have been ground reports of lightning just north of Cardiff earlier this morning on another forum

damn!!! i was probably asleep!!! typical haha!!

[Stuart]

nice to see so high caps for my area for wed hope there dont get downgread

Edited June 29, 2009 by Stuart

[dogs32]

a lot of the upgrades for the North...Tues/Wed/Thurs

Surely the most accurate time on the GFS is 3-6..hrs before the event

I feel plenty of lottery GFS charts this week

the East coming into play for Friday

Edited June 29, 2009 by dogs32

[Faye]

Just got back from Tewkesbury and it was 26 degrees there.

It's a bit cloudy here but nothing much to add to that.

Hopefully we will see something later, but I'm looking forward to tomorrow if we do have something as I'm having my ear syringed and i'll be able to hear a storm properly (fingers crossed!).

[maidstone weather]

a lot of the upgrades for the North...Tues/Wed/Thurs

Surely the most accurate time on the GFS is 3-6..hrs before the event

I feel plenty of lottery GFS charts this week

the East coming into play for Friday

look at that!

Excluding the southeast! :lol:

[dogs32]

look at that!

Excluding the southeast! :lol: :lol:

the East is going to get hammered on Friday....

S/E.....one consideration the GFS is always changing..... :lol: have faith

edit....lovely convection to the far S/W

Edited June 29, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

Excluding the southeast!

Glad you said it first MW! You can only despair...

However, GFS has played that card almost every single time with the SE corner, yet there has been in some areas at least, a fair few storms throughout June in particular.

Northern France looks cracking throughout most if not all of this week, with very little indication from GFS these are going to move our way

As dogs says - keep an open mind! GFS will chop and change all week, and while we have the heat and humidity, there is always a chance.

Edited June 29, 2009 by Harry

[kold weather]

The CAPE is being overdone, I can almost certainly state that. It needs Dew points of 21C which is going to be a big ask given even yesterday they only reached 17-18C. That requires a 3-4C increase on what we had yesterday and whilst we may get another 1C higher the air isn't really any warmer then it was yesterday.

There must be an iossue with the GFS model as it nearly always has dew points to high, and usually in the summer aways focuses on the west Midlands region for the highest dew points. Its really quite odd as it rarely get to the forecasted dew point in these set-ups.

Should get storms, I'm not sure exacty how widespread they will be but even though GFS is very probaby overcooking the instability, its still not bad either.

[andy_leics22]

Today is about the only day that I would be pleased if there wasn't a storm or any rain lol. I am playing tennis at 12 and if it rains whilst we are playing then that will ruin it!

[jo200199]

Blackwood around 8.10am

25C here

just up the road from me....didn't see any lightning but there were some intense downpours. Sun's out now and clouds are bubbling away

[maidstone weather]

Valid from/until: 11:30-2200BST on Monday 29th June 2009 for the following regions:

* N & Mid Wales

* NW England

* Midlands

* London area

THREATS

Isolated funnels/tornadoes, marginally severe hail, CG lightning, torrential rainfall, gusty winds.

SYNOPSIS

Another afternoon/evening of scattered diurnal convection is expected, developing within warm/moist plume of air. Small S/W trough is moving slowly N/E at the moment, and should aid convective development this afternoon/evening. The most likely area for thunderstorms is across Wales, and later, NW England. A lower risk extends down to the London area. Convergence could allow isolated funnels/weak tornadoes to develop. There is also the risk of marginally severe hail with stronger cores, and gusty winds, along with cloud-ground lightning.

The lack of strong shear/overall storm organisation means that any severe threat will be from pulse-type updraughts - thus a watch is not warranted ATTM.

Overnight tonight, moist plume should destabilise across parts of SW England into Wales as another S/W trough overspreads it. Devon/Dorset and areas northwards into Wales seem most at risk. The primary threat with these storms will be cloud-ground lightning and brief heavy rainfall.

Forecaster: RPK.

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

[andy_leics22]

Valid from/until: 11:30-2200BST on Monday 29th June 2009 for the following regions:

* N & Mid Wales

* NW England

* Midlands

* London area

THREATS

Isolated funnels/tornadoes

Well my tennis balls are going to love that if that happens

[Harry]

I am in windsor for the races later this afternoon/evening - I wonder

[jo200199]

Well my tennis balls are going to love that if that happens :lol:

[Godot]

Everyone is asking me if I caught the storms here last night. I slept through them of course. Now I'll be paranoid to sleep for the rest of the week..!

[johnholmes]

Valid from/until: 11:30-2200BST on Monday 29th June 2009 for the following regions:

* N & Mid Wales

* NW England

* Midlands

* London area

THREATS

Isolated funnels/tornadoes, marginally severe hail, CG lightning, torrential rainfall, gusty winds.

SYNOPSIS

Another afternoon/evening of scattered diurnal convection is expected, developing within warm/moist plume of air. Small S/W trough is moving slowly N/E at the moment, and should aid convective development this afternoon/evening. The most likely area for thunderstorms is across Wales, and later, NW England. A lower risk extends down to the London area. Convergence could allow isolated funnels/weak tornadoes to develop. There is also the risk of marginally severe hail with stronger cores, and gusty winds, along with cloud-ground lightning.

The lack of strong shear/overall storm organisation means that any severe threat will be from pulse-type updraughts - thus a watch is not warranted ATTM.

Overnight tonight, moist plume should destabilise across parts of SW England into Wales as another S/W trough overspreads it. Devon/Dorset and areas northwards into Wales seem most at risk. The primary threat with these storms will be cloud-ground lightning and brief heavy rainfall.

Forecaster: RPK.

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

my personal take on that is that the risk to the London area is very very slight, less than 20%; north of London, say Luton area north (sorry Crazy Snowfan !) then 30-40% but very isolated even there. The main risk is north and west from about Birmingham, into Gt Manchester/Cheshire-N Wales and Lancs, Me, areas, perhaps 60% for this but again mainly isolated but could be torrential in these areas even so; perhaps to include parts of the Pennines.

[Tn9]

Like you say,risk is very slim this side of London[slimmer than normal if thats possible].Recent observation tells the whole story,i have this monster evolving :lol:

[Snowyowl9]

Just had a sharp to heavy shower from mid-level cloud,there was also a CB to the SW from around 10am could see it behind the broken up AC.

Now theres a lovely cloud heading this way mid-level cumulus from alt-cas.

[johnholmes]

the showers over Wales are on the minor trough shown on the sat piccs and mentioned on one, at least, of the convective forecasts-currently it seems fairly inactive SE of those echoes but is likely to pep up further east of that line as the heating ahead of it, limited low level convergence and slight pressure falls, add to it. Still that NW corner where most of the action is likely to be.

Edited June 29, 2009 by johnholmes

[maidstone weather]

BBC has a shower developing over my head at 3pm on the latest graphics - yeah right!

[Coast]

i have this monster evolving :lol:

Head for the Faraday cage!

There was a lot of cloud over you yesterday by what I could see from the Downs, some of it looked convective but I suspect that we will not see too much potential here until later in the week (earliest).

[Harry]

Like you say,risk is very slim this side of London[slimmer than normal if thats possible].Recent observation tells the whole story,i have this monster evolving

Like N Africa here today - heatwaves smacking you in the face as you walk down the road, no breeze, and one, measly little cirrus!!

Slimmest chance, I'd say based on the skies at the moment, no chance!! More like hose pipe ban here we go!

[Faye]

I'm new to this so be gentle

Is anything heading to Gloucestershire for this afternoon/evening?

[dogs32]

first tower's trying to go up to my South

[Coast]

I'm new to this so be gentle

Is anything heading to Gloucestershire for this afternoon/evening?

Good afternoon Faye and welcome!

Forecasting TStorms is a nightmare and you can only take indications of the possibility from this site and other sources + keep looking on the radar and the skies.

I think a 'definite maybe' for you later but fellow members like dogs32 and Jane Louise in your part of the World, can give you more local info and assistance. I mostly go on hunch ( :lol: ) and I suspect you are on the very most Southerly part of any possible convective activity today.