Thursday / Friday Storm Discussion

[Hot mamma]

OMG we just had that rain arrive here in Newport, my garden has turned into a swimming pool and i need and ark to get out!!!

If this is only the begining then we r in trouble as the drains couldn't cope with that, the water is to close for comfort!

[Wilxy]

OMG we just had that rain arrive here in Newport, my garden has turned into a swimming pool and i need and ark to get out!!!

If this is only the begining then we r in trouble as the drains couldn't cope with that, the water is to close for comfort!

You just caught what i had whole road and garden flooded and still raining heavly.

[Hot mamma]

Yeah, it's still raining heavy here, but not as bad as that!!! I have never heard or seen rain like that before!!!

[Wilxy]

Yeah, it's still raining heavy here, but not as bad as that!!! I have never heard or seen rain like that before!!!

I havn't seen rain like this in quite a few years and its been prolonged here aswel and still coming down im thinking if the house is at risk.

[JRMcLeod]

Image of building cloud 5 mins ago here in Banchory, Aberdeenshire.

I have a qusetion, this might sound silly but when the lights flicker etc in your office, is this lightning hitting the national grid or something else?

[Wilxy]

Here we go again torriential rain again

[kold weather]

Well its quite uncertain still whats going to happen with the convection, we still haven't got any convection over France but this is the type of situation where it will probably blow up all at the same time once the cap is eroded enough. The cell over the channel islands right now is a small example of what happens when the cap is eroded.

I do agree with the idea that its going to be close though, do need to see something getting going in the next 2 hours really.

The 12z GFS moved closer to the UKMO and puts the MCS over the far SE but most of it is over France, so further SE then the 06z. Still has quite a lot of convection over the SE though nothing like the 06z.

Still has a big rain event for the NE, still looking like 70-100MM in some places according to the model. Also has the cold front a little stronger for central parts of England, could well be the odd thunderstorms embedded in the front so even if the storms tonight bust that still needs watching.

[Neilsouth]

I do agree with the idea that its going to be close though, do need to see something getting going in the next 2 hours really.

Not really , the other night the storms over france really didn't get going till late and only over Calais which later affected northern france. Even then they died as they crossed the channel before exploding into life near 10pm!

[Harry]

Not really , the other night the storms over france really didn't get going till late and only over Calais which later affected northern france. Even then they died as they crossed the channel before exploding into life near 10pm!

Problem in this case though, the later they develop the further afield they could go! i.e as the front and associated troughs push both N and E, the later and later something explodes the more N and E it is likely to push!

Nevertheless a gripping few hours to come :lol:

[kold weather]

Somewhat different situation though this one Neil, still two hours maybe a little agressive but the whole front is starting to pivot so if we are going to import we need them to get going soon....thats not to say things can't still explode in the channel, indeed in this situation thats even more likely then the usual import idea as its more down to forcing then daytime temps. Still as Harry has correctly said the longer it takes the further E these systems will head...for you its not quite as important but for those in the western edge its vital.

Cells just starting to form better near the channel islands but with the GFS also now agreeing the MCS stays to our south, I think thats looking a lot less likely now...I'm not quite as confident as I was before...but even worst case as I said we should get some cells come through.

Edited July 16, 2009 by kold weather

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Have to wait and see of course, but it does increasingly look to me that the main storm potential is going to stay just SE of here and move through France into Belgium. The northern fringe of it could well have an elevated storm or two though and some heavy rain. It seems the main MCS develops at a stage when the main energy shifts just that bit further east. It is a relatively short window for everything to come together and for storms to be steered far enough north before the most unstable air shifts them away north eastwards away from the area.

[Coast]

A quick look-see over the 'other side' and they have a little more CAPE and slightly better LI than us:

Temps are also better:

and the DP along our Coast is positive:

It just needs to start breeding now!

Edited July 16, 2009 by Coast

[kold weather]

The NE cluster still looking rather good at the moment, maybe even has organised itself into a small MCS iself, heavy pluse just west of Sunderland right now.

[dogs32]

:lol:

no sferics in this lot at present

edit.. pouring here

Edited July 16, 2009 by dogs32

[Geordiesnow]

The NE cluster still looking rather good at the moment, maybe even has organised itself into a small MCS iself, heavy pluse just west of Sunderland right now.

Radar looks good however it just spitting with light rain here atm, clouds have some dark bases around them but it would appear the heavier pulses are indeed quite locallised or i just got a Shield around my house.

[Harry]

Have a very strong gut feeling I am not going to be seeing much tonight.

EDIT - SAT24 shows how Cb's have erupted over the past couple of hours on the southern flank of that rain band.

Edited July 16, 2009 by Harry

[twister2005]

Hi all, just got back from camping in devon, rain has just started here, we saw lots of heavy rain at night when away but no thunder so hopefully might see something later :lol:

[Guest]

Have a very strong gut feeling I am not going to be seeing much tonight.

EDIT - SAT24 shows how Cb's have erupted over the past couple of hours on the southern flank of that rain band.

LOL, well there is another Kent member over on TWO who has a gut feeling it will come off, so who's gonna win? The doubters or the optimists! :lol:

All I can say is it's gonna be wet :lol:

[Coast]

EDIT - SAT24 shows how Cb's have erupted over the past couple of hours on the southern flank of that rain band.

All the ingredients are there for a nice meal, we have a bunch of hungry people, a suitable venue and a selection of after dinner cigars, but no one to bring the food to the table! :lol:

[kold weather]

Some cellsare going up near the frontal system and on the southern edge of the front over France. May be the first sign of the cap finally being broken at least over the channel and the instablity being tapped into.

Still the front already seems to be starting to pivot so things do need to get a move on if we want to get the best of it, looking more and more likely the MCS is going to miss us...which wil lleave with the storms and showers, which may be potent but will be somewhat more hit and miss, some people may only get a few MM's from the first part of this event in the SE.

[cjwardy]

Where the cells are erupting over France is a little too far south for my liking. It's looking more and more likely that the storms will go up NE through France and into Belgium.

We really need the low to pivot hard and get the storms over France going in more of NNE direction.

Edited July 16, 2009 by cjwardy

[Cloud 10]

All the ingredients are there for a nice meal, we have a bunch of hungry people, a suitable venue and a selection of after dinner cigars, but no one to bring the food to the table! :lol:

classic!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

All the ingredients are there for a nice meal, we have a bunch of hungry people, a suitable venue and a selection of after dinner cigars, but no one to bring the food to the table! :lol:

And to poorly add to the analogy, we will end up getting a KFC bucket

[NL]

Radar looks good however it just spitting with light rain here atm, clouds have some dark bases around them but it would appear the heavier pulses are indeed quite locallised or i just got a Shield around my house.

Heavy to moderate rain here since this cluster came about weve had 7mm already, more to come soon and an absolute

deluge tomorrow..!!

[loopydreamer]

rain started to get a little heavier here now... actually as i speak it has just started chucking it down! :huh:

yep! very heavy rain now