Thursday / Friday Storm Discussion

[Lynxus]

Damn, looks like all were getting is boring rain then.

As expected all the heavy stuff is heading for the SE :huh:

[dave48]

Southern England looks good for storms coming in off the channel now, I wonder if any of them will hold together.

[dogs32]

fairly heavy rain here now..Almost constant for the last hr..

going dark to our South...

On Sat24 you can make out many heavy showers or storms developing near the brest pinninusula

[Wilxy]

Southern England looks good for storms coming in off the channel now, I wonder if any of them will hold together.

Is that gunna swing round on the low so has it goes N or NE moving NW around the low.

[loopydreamer]

Southern England looks good for storms coming in off the channel now, I wonder if any of them will hold together.

i was thinking that could be the case too!

im not sure for my area tho! i was thinking the possibility of storms would be further south of me :huh:

[West Sussex Kate]

Is that gunna swing round on the low so has it goes N or NE moving NW around the low.

Think so! :huh:

[Cheese Rice]

Isn't this the kind of weather front that would bring loads of snow in the winter for midlands and southern areas.

[Sno' problem]

Some some good convection with lightning over the Channel Islands and the ppn getting noticably heavier as it hits the coast (especially around Bournemouth right now), could get very exciting.

[azores92]

i was thinking that could be the case too!

im not sure for my area tho! i was thinking the possibility of storms would be further south of me <_<

its clear at the moment what the situation is over the country; that the southern flank of the rain belt is perhaps harboring a few storms, with the heaviest precipitation around the southern coast. further north, and it is just steady moderate precipitation over many areas of the west midlands and wales, with the odd heavy burst. nothing spectacular, though it looks persistant, hence an inch or more is achievable. obviously the north east looks best for the heaviest and most persistant precipitation, as the met office warning says, over 4 inches is possible, and therefore flooding is a distinct possibility. as someone said earlier about 20mm being recorded from showers in morpeth, id say 100mm has a good chance of being recorded.

[dogs32]

the storms near the Brest do look like they are on track for the South and Eastern Coasts on the loop(Sat24)

[maidstone weather]

Valid from/until: 18:00 - 04:00BST on Thursday/Friday 16th/17th July 2009 for the following regions:

• Channel Islands
  
• Cent S & SE England
  
• E Midlands
  
• E Anglia
  
• Lincs
  

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes, possibly strong; hail to 30-40mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; heavy rain.

SYNOPSIS

Sharpening upper trough will move NE across the area this evening and overnight, with an area of low pressure at the surface developing. Ageostrophic flow associated with the developing low will keep surface flow backed to the east or south-east, beneath a 30-35 knot 850 hPa flow, and 50-60 knot 500 hPa flow. Thunderstorms have already developed in the moisture plume, associated with strong forcing from the upper trough. These are expected to move/develop north-eastwards this evening and overnight, although may be slightly elevated. Cloud layer shear is sufficient for elevated mesocyclones, bringing the risk of large hail/strong winds.

The tornado risk is more questionable as storms may remain rooted above the boundary layer. However, if any storm does root into the boundary layer, strong 0-1km shear would bring the risk of low-level mesocyclones/tornadoes, and the magnitude of the shear suggests that a strong tornado is possible (T4+).

Forecaster: RPK.

TORRO - Severe Weather Forecast

---------------------------------------------

What's more, some fantastic altocumulus here! <_<

[loopydreamer]

its clear at the moment what the situation is over the country; that the southern flank of the rain belt is perhaps harboring a few storms, with the heaviest precipitation around the southern coast. further north, and it is just steady moderate precipitation over many areas of the west midlands and wales, with the odd heavy burst. nothing spectacular, though it looks persistant, hence an inch or more is achievable. obviously the north east looks best for the heaviest and most persistant precipitation, as the met office warning says, over 4 inches is possible, and therefore flooding is a distinct possibility. as someone said earlier about 20mm being recorded from showers in morpeth, id say 100mm has a good chance of being recorded.

well... i have to say that the rain is very heavy here atm and doesn't seem to be letting up! This is not an odd heavy burst! this is constant heavy rain which has been going on for quite awhile and i think it will be pretty heavy most of the night

[Geordiesnow]

Isn't this the kind of weather front that would bring loads of snow in the winter for midlands and southern areas.

Well it would depend how much cold air there is and depends if there is a milder sector in the core of the low but yeah it would probably bring alot of snow in the Midlands especially.

It will be interesting to see if the front does actually pep up tomorrow morning around here or will we only see moderate rain which i suspect we will.

[Mike Storm]

those cells in the channel look exciting... heading straight for the SE at the moment look quite violent <_<

[Cookie]

3 hrs of non stop torriental rain here on lewis. never seen rain like it

[dogs32]

those cells in the channel look exciting... heading straight for the SE at the moment look quite violent <_<

A line now developing towards IOW...look like some nasty downpours on there way

[Lynxus]

Bah, SE always get the fun.

Im moving.

hehe

[Nick F]

Yep, some strong storms developing over Cherbourg Pennisula atm, could merge into a MCS moving NE over central-S and SE England later ... as I said earlier don't give up hope over a GFS run!!

[loopydreamer]

just been to met office west midlands are in the orange <_<

[Ross B]

More and more sferics coming out of that line of storms across Southern Scotland...!

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

Very dark to the east of here but not heard anything yet.

[Lynxus]

just been to met office west midlands are in the orange <_<

For a few more showers possibly

[Fitzwis]

Hi all...just had a nice thunderstorm here but with no visible lightning and the thunder being the type that growls regularly in the distance with a few louder rumbles thrown in for good measure...good luck to those on the South coast and in South East this evening...could be very interesting <_<

[Tom D]

Things looking very interesting over the channel, some very nice storms brewing up fast. That, and the MO have upgraded their warnings over much of England - an interesting evening awaits!

[loopydreamer]

For a few more showers possibly

nah! i reckon we could get flooding around worcestershire! alot of areas are prone to flooding here! Im not measuring how much rain has fallen in the last two hours but i have already found out from neighbours that the trickling stream a few mins from my house is turning into a small river! there is also flooding happening at the entrance to arrow valley park already <_<

[dogs32]

this as got nice and lively now

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm