Thursday / Friday Storm Discussion

[Wilxy]

Very dark now to the SE looks like a monster of a storm is coming but no thunder heared.

[Neilsouth]

I just cant get excited about the rainy/stormy weather on its way. Something tells me the SE will just have a dull, drizzly day tomorrow and a few moderate bursts of rain over night.

Depends which part of south east , east kent tend to do very well with imports from france... It's as if over the years the imports have affected more eastern areas rather than all of south east

[Cloud 10]

Me mam apparantly saw a flash of lightning just above us and followed by the short crack of thunder, i didnt see it as i was watching the cricket. :lol:

Tomorrow's rainfall does looks concerning, even if the rain is at the moderate stage, its looks like it will be persistant so flooding looks possible, just got to wait and see what happens.

Fairly menacing looking sky to my northeast.

radar..

Edited July 16, 2009 by Cloud 10

[dave48]

Interesting Estofex update - I'll paste the bit that caught my eye :lol: - looks like they're thinking the SE mcs will miss us though

'Further north, increasing ageostrophic low-level winds are expected to be associated with destabilization from northern France into southern England. Although the degree of destabilization is questionable given actual rather dry low-level air masses over most places, strong QG forcing and mostly neutral lapse rates may support deep convection in the evening hours. Every storm that roots to the boundary-layer will have a potential of producing strong tornadoes given around 10-12 m/s 0-1 km vertical wind shear. Clustering of storms may limit this potential. Additionally, excessive rain will likely occur due to the strong QG forcing'

I think ageostrophic low level winds are winds that react to a drop in pressure and fall straight into the low as aposed to circling round it, giving us backed low level winds..

Indeed, good for us I suppose, bad for the south east but I expect they will still see some good storms and maybe even an MCS.

[gpspete]

just looked at my lightning detectors both showing activety to the southwest

as an interest I have a StrikeAlert v2 (2 days) it has bleeped twice at the same time as my Boltek indicating 24 to 40 miles but they are 150 to 200 miles on Nextstorm

looks a bit sensitive

[snow raven]

Depends which part of south east , east kent tend to do very well with imports from france... It's as if over the years the imports have affected more eastern areas rather than all of south east

True, fingers crossed the eastern tip of Kent get to see something exciting :lol:

[Paul]

Latest forecast for the next few days and into next week from Michael Fish is now online:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

[Harry]

During the night, the severe MCS over northern France MAY move into Belgium and western Germany, while severe potential will gradually decrease due to low-level stabilization. To the south, deep convection will likely spread eastward across most of France. Given strong vertical wind shear, storms may produce large hail and severe wind gusts.

Still something possible for us then - but the interesting note regarding the MCS is this - it MAY move into Belgium and western Germany - there is a possibility it could well come our way too (wishful thinking I know, but possible nonetheless)

[kold weather]

The fact that we have a cell that has already formed just shead of the front should be good news for the SE. Conditions further west are already good enough for scattered cell development and conditions are much more favorable further east where the cap is still holding. Over the enxt few hours the cap should be eroded and I sspect cells will develop. Whether or not it develops into a MCS in time for the SE is something that the models even now don't agree upon. Regardless of this we should still see some convective activity come out of France even in the worst case.

[snow raven]

The fact that we have a cell that has already formed just shead of the front should be good news for the SE. Conditions further west are already good enough for scattered cell development and conditions are much more favorable further east where the cap is still holding. Over the enxt few hours the cap should be eroded and I sspect cells will develop. Whether or not it develops into a MCS in time for the SE is something that the models even now don't agree upon. Regardless of this we should still see some convective activity come out of France even in the worst case.

Thats made me feel a bit more positive for later tonight. I have everything crossed!

[Wilxy]

Wow V heavy rain here now and flooding already on the road

OMG im scared road outside is flooded and coming up the drive

[NL]

As this cluster of heavy rain/odd thunderclap passes there is a small (30-50 mile wide) clear slot

coming in from the SW just south of Middlesbrough encouraging convection to initiate, a few cells

popping up around there as i type, hope these are a bit more active in the electrical department.

[dave48]

Wow V heavy rain here now and flooding already on the road

I can see it on the radar, a few miles west of here, we may see something like that soon.

Edited July 16, 2009 by dave48

[Coast]

The fact that we have a cell that has already formed just shead of the front should be good news for the SE. Conditions further west are already good enough for scattered cell development and conditions are much more favorable further east where the cap is still holding. Over the enxt few hours the cap should be eroded and I sspect cells will develop. Whether or not it develops into a MCS in time for the SE is something that the models even now don't agree upon. Regardless of this we should still see some convective activity come out of France even in the worst case.

So there is a god?! :lol:

[Lynxus]

Could of swore i just saw a distant flash.

Maybe im just hoping..

Eitherway, Its currently very humid. Skies are getting darker and still a moderate drizzle.

[SteveB]

Moderate rain here. I suppose if it carries on like this for the rest of the day, we could be looking at flooding.

[Wilxy]

Wow i better start thinking cause thats the begining of a v long spell of more heavy rain so im scared.

[dogs32]

Wow i better start thinking cause thats the begining of a v long spell of more heavy rain so im scared.

lots more to come yet :lol: ...only the begining

very heavy cell South Glos

Edited July 16, 2009 by dogs32

[Lynxus]

Estofex have an updated forecast if anyones interested.

http://estofex.org

[Wynn D Woo]

After a short sharp burst its now just light drizzle, quite dark though so who knows may be we might get something a bit more interesting yet in gloucester shield

Edit

Just started to get a bit heavier again.

Edited July 16, 2009 by windswept

[Snowyowl9]

Had some heavy showers earlier this afternoon one v heavy,I`ve also heard 2 distant rumbles one then and one around 3ish could be anywhere.

Steady rain for the last hour now.

[Harry]

So there is a god?! :lol:

We'll know later on tonight and into the early hours of tomorrow morning Coast, lol

[Coast]

ESTOFEX have an updated forecast if anyones interested.

Seems to be exactly in line with the map released by the UKASF late last night and gives us a positive level 1 area down here.

Going to be very touch and go tonight - I feel a late one coming on with bleary eyes tomorrow!

[Wilxy]

If it rains like that at fairford its guareted to be cancled.

[dogs32]

was here 5 hrs ago :lol:

anyway this is 20 miles east of Plymouth

http://www.hopeandanchor.co.uk/webcam.html