Thursday / Friday Storm Discussion

[Lewis]

Why are people saying the main rain will miss Hull and the NE? What charts are you looking at?! The centre of the LP track is across the region! and stalling, bringing more rainfall totals, we will miss the storms tonight yes, but tomorrow these areas are high at risk, just look at the METOFFICE! warnings.

All-in-All looking very impressive for SE and Central belt of S england tonight! Kent's gunna get battered <_<

[maidstone weather]

Why are people saying the main rain will miss Hull and the NE? What charts are you looking at?! The centre of the LP track is across the region! and stalling, bringing more rainfall totals, we will miss the storms tonight yes, but tomorrow these areas are high at risk, just look at the METOFFICE! warnings.

All-in-All looking very impressive for SE and Central belt of S england tonight! Kent's gunna get battered

who said you'd miss out? I am yet to see a post to indicate that!? <_<

[Lynxus]

Dogs,

Any thoughts for us mate?

[kamboocha_mushroom]

Woohoo! Looks as if this batch of brewing storm clouds's heading this way!

And the most exciting stuff will naturally go to Benelux <_<

[West Sussex Kate]

*hold onto your hats!*

[R0b]

Are there any cams down south we can look at this approaching?

[RichardW2]

Why are people saying the main rain will miss Hull and the NE? What charts are you looking at?! The centre of the LP track is across the region! and stalling, bringing more rainfall totals, we will miss the storms tonight yes, but tomorrow these areas are high at risk, just look at the METOFFICE! warnings.

All-in-All looking very impressive for SE and Central belt of S england tonight! Kent's gunna get battered <_<

Because they mistakenly believe it is all going "linear" in a straight line to the north east of the UK, which it isn't. It is spinning around the low pressure area, hence the rain band will be stalling over eastern England

Edited July 16, 2009 by RichardW2

[Wynn D Woo]

Rain has eased up a bit at present but i think i might just have caught a flash of lightning out the corner of my eye - no thunder heard though.

[Coast]

Our very own Michael Fish must have been cribbing from this thread tonight as his BBC South East weather forecast has thunderstorms right over my head - if it's coming it will be in Eastern Sussex and I'll be on Beachy Head lapping it up!

[keithm]

Are there any cams down south we can look at this approaching?

http://www.livesurfcams.co.uk/index.php?op...5&Itemid=88

[R0b]

Because they mistakenly believe it is all going "linear" in a straight line to the north east of the UK, which it isn't. It is spinning around the low pressure area, hence the rain band will be stalling over eastern England

Now that really does sound more promising!

[dogs32]

Dogs,

Any thoughts for us mate?

mm...hard one..

I think there's a possability for us later when the main area runs through...

hopefull the showers or trough's will ignite...so im still hopefull for later tonight or early hrs

[kold weather]

Cells are starting to form now over the Channel and also over France, this being the first stages of a development into an eventual MCS, though that feature is looking likely to miss almost all of the Se bar possibly the far SE. Still the southern side of the system is now looking increasingly convective and the cells in the Channel should make thier way inland.

[dave48]

mm...hard one..

I think there's a possability for us later when the main area runs through...

hopefull the showers or trough's will ignite...so im still hopefull for later tonight or early hrs

I'm hopefuly too but right now there is hardly any instability, the little plume extends over the channel and that's about as far as it gets, I would be surprised to see anything west of the Isle of Wight, except possibly on the far south coast. Conditions look better in the east.

Edited July 16, 2009 by dave48

[Cheese Rice]

Those showers will be extremely heavy and will contain lightning, one to watch

Edited July 16, 2009 by 10123

[West Sussex Kate]

if it's coming it will be in Eastern Sussex and I'll be on Beachy Head lapping it up!

Hopefully it will stretch a bit so we both have a share LOL! <_<

[Bofh]

looks like i may well be in the firing line for this one.

fingers crossed for the first storm of the year <_<

[jo200199]

http://www.livesurfcams.co.uk/index.php?op...5&Itemid=88

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/webcams.asp

[Coast]

From the Worthing station:

*** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 16/07/2009 18:59:03

Tracking 2 thunderstorms

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID O-2262 detected 18:24

Storm location bearing 186.1 dgr distance 173 mi

Last recorded activity 18:59

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend Weakening

Current strikerate 7/minute

Peak strikerate 11/minute

Total recorded strikes 193

Cloud-Ground strikes 48 - 24.87%

Intracloud strikes 145 - 75.13%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 16 - 8.29%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 32 - 16.58%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 78 - 40.41%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 67 - 34.72%

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID S-2795 detected 18:33

Storm location bearing 215.6 dgr distance 201 mi

Last recorded activity 18:53

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend No change

Current strikerate 1/minute

Peak strikerate 6/minute

Total recorded strikes 19

Cloud-Ground strikes 3 - 15.79%

Intracloud strikes 16 - 84.21%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 1 - 5.26%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 2 - 10.53%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 12 - 63.16%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 4 - 21.05%

-------------------------------------------------------

*** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.6.0.2553:PCI

Webcams that might be of interest:

http://webcam.ville-lehavre.fr

www.bbc.co.uk/brighton_seafront_webcaml

www.bexwatch.co.uk

[kold weather]

Worth noting that the storm cluster that hit the NE this afternoon (probably became a MCS feature) has already given 10-15MM quite widely, so we are already nearly a fifth of the way to 100mm in some spots before the rain has even got there.

[peterf]

Worth noting that the storm cluster that hit the NE this afternoon (probably became a MCS feature) has already given 10-15MM quite widely, so we are already nearly a fifth of the way to 100mm in some spots before the rain has even got there.

tell me about it lol.

[Coast]

How about this beauty out to sea off Le Harvre!?

[loopydreamer]

still absolutely chucking it down here! no thunder heard

[dave48]

How about this beauty out to sea off Le Harvre!?

Nice photo, a real contrast to the grey skies and rain here.

[loopydreamer]

actually the rain is slowing down a bit now