Rain / Winds / Storms - Friday Into Saturday

[tornadomanuk]

After a noisy night with torrential rain, thunder and wind, things did calm down for a couple of hours. Even thought the sun was going to make and appearance - but things are steadily going downhill again. Very strong wind gusts are developing again, perhaps even stronger than last night. Could be a very interesting couple of hours down here judging by those squall lines approaching from the SW. The weathers strangely been behaving like a Hurricane - Stormy winds during the night, then the calm, now back to the stormy winds again!! the only difference is the winds aren't in the opposite direction!!

Edited November 14, 2009 by tornadomanuk

[SteveB]

Well I must have escaped the worse last night. It was windy & no more than that, and I only had 9.5mm of rain.

[winter watcher]

Whooo here comes the next time bomb 2 inches off rain has fallen here and standing drains packed up aswell.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Good Morning.

Nothing of note to report here in Norfolk. I don't think it will be too bad here. No rain or any wind as such. Tis a shame as I did look forward to a bit of action today. Might pick up a bit later.

Further to your east near Cromer, we've got a back edge of clouds that looks like the backend of a cold front. Dark earlier, with very heavy cloud, but no wind that I'd call strong.

You might find this site useful,

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations

includes weather at Weybourne and Norwich

Edited November 14, 2009 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[stormchaser.co.uk]

All seems calm in Hertfordshire at the moment - can even see some blue sky pushing the greyness away. Send some of the action my way please!

[Paul Sherman]

Thx Guys

Getting ready for it here, have amazing Mammatus overhead with a great Anvil to my South East, can hear booms in the distance which sound like bombs going off

Going into London in about 30 mins and there is supposed to be a fly past for the Lord Mayor's Show with Fireworks over the River at 5pm (Weather Permitting LOL)

Paul S

[Coast]

Max gust in the last 24 hours was 42 mph in Eastbourne, but it's picking up substantially now. Unfortunately I've escaped all the thunderstorm activity so far.

Getting ready for it here, have amazing Mammatus overhead with a great Anvil to my South East, can hear booms in the distance which sound like bombs going off

Pictures Paul?

[dogs32]

The East YET again are having storms...

must be there 15 th this year

I reckon they have some nuclear power over there and they are creating them

THE ONLY LIGHTNING WE SEE HERE IS THROUGH A PLASMA BULB

:lol:

Edited November 14, 2009 by dogs32

[yamkin]

MetO have updated their 'Flash warnings of severe or extreme weather' http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

Looks like the worst is yet to come.

[Lenticular]

Getting very patchy but heavy showers at the moment, isobars actually look to be tightening on the S/W of the country with winds picking up

My linkhttp://meteocentre.com/analyse/map

think that if the lows dumbbell around one and other the winds could pick up quite a bit.

Just to add we have just had two very loud claps of thunder but couldn't see any flash as we have torrential rain as well

Edited November 14, 2009 by Lenticular

[coldfingers]

First 60 mph gust round here just recorded on Chimet.

http:/www.chimet.co.uk/

[Roger J Smith]

Just looking at this recent satellite image, a rather odd face in the clouds over Sweden, is it just my imagination or do you see it too?

http://www.sat24.com/images.php?country=eu&sat=ir&type=large&rnd=52327

Meanwhile, the developing squally frontal band (not quite a squall line as such yet) over the southwest is likely to accelerate east which can only add to the gustiness potential with it ... since the 12z prog shows the sharp surface trough north-south through Heathrow at that point, it has to pretty much travel 200 miles in three hours -- u do the math on that one. All it has to do is mix down the 70 knot winds at 700 mbs and Bob's your uncle so to speak.

Expecting some tornadic wind streaks to develop not only in prime coastal margins but well inland, the dynamics are too strong to resist with this set-up ... even the Greater London Area is in the firing line and could see wind damage around 1100-1300 (as well as anything that develops from the current meso-scale feature over the city, which is showing up very well on meteociel lightning displays -- not so much the advancing main front yet, but that could change rapidly as it leaves the marine areas.

[philglossop]

In the last 10 minutes we've lost our garage door and next door have lost their lounge window- the gust which took them out was incredible.

Edit 3 ridge tiles gone as well!

Edited November 14, 2009 by philglossop

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Just looking at this recent satellite image, a rather odd face in the clouds over Sweden, is it just my imagination or do you see it too?

http://www.sat24.com...large&rnd=52327

Definately a face!

[Methuselah]

lol Is it Prince Charles?? :unsure:

[dogs32]

wind as got realy bad here in the last hr or so..

So must be worse for them down on the Coast..

Hope this front gets more electric as it pushes East.

Phill how come the window got sucked out....Sort of thing that could happen in a twister...

[littlemissy]

getting very windy here again.Struggled to open bedroom window (bedroom south facing ,the cat THOUGHT it wanted to go out lol ).Absolutely throwing it down.

Edited November 14, 2009 by littlemissy

[Neilsouth]

Well i slept through it :unsure:

[weatherobsuk]

Given the newest Visibile Meto Satellite image, I'm wondering how much of a pronounced effect the Dry-Air intrusion overnight has had on this system, its obvious from a structural point of view that the Low's centre hasnt filled in, and that the introduction of the Dry-Slot from yesterday evening is only going to increase the wind gradient further for today in the SW.

[Coast]

I haven't trawled back through all the posts, so excuse me if some, or all of this has already been put up:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 14 Nov 2009 06:00 to Sun 15 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 14 Nov 2009 00:06

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for parts of the English Channel and the coastal areas of S-UK mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for W/NW/NW-France mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for most parts of the UK, surrounding the level 2 mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for N-Portugal and extreme NW-Spain mainly for excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

Extensive cyclonic vortex over far NW-Europe steers numerous disturbances around its fringes, which affect western and N-Europe during the forecast. Ridging over the Mediterranean suppresses convection, whereas cooler/stable conditions persist over E-Europe.

DISCUSSION

... S-UK and the English Channel ...

The main story of the day will be the passage of the upper trough axis with the attendant intense depression/pressure gradient over S-UK/the English Channel.

The wind forecast is straightforward as 35-40m/s at 850hPa will mix down easily towards the surface, so damaging and potential life-threatening wind gusts affect the southern part of the UK until 18 UTC, exiting the area thereafter towards the east. Some weakening of the wind field is forecast over far SE-UK, but kinematics are still adequate for isolated extreme wind gust events.

The tornado risk is already more uncertain but most likely maximized along the coastal areas of S/SE-UK, where some onshore moisture causes marginal CAPE. Strong tornadoes will be possible, if more persistent updrafts can evolve. However this brings us to the main uncertainty: convection.

The region will be placed beneath the weakening sting jet, where intrusion of dry, high-level air and constantly evaporatively cooled airmass inhibits deep convection. This is also seen in warm EL temperature forecasts and slim convective precipitation signals. However, dry slotted areas could also see some insolation and not much BL modification is needed along the coast for deeper convective updrafts. A strong vorticity love also crosses S-UK during the daytime hours, so despite slim signals, at least supportive conditions for deep convection can't be ruled out along the coast and SE-UK.

Probably the most likely scenario will be a rapidly E/NE-ward racing forced line of convection over S-UK. Conditions onshore become worse, so the strongest activity remains confined along the south coast (probably enhanced by diurnal heating) and the level 2 was expanded inland, where the tornado risk is enhanced next to the damaging wind gust threat. As convection is forecast to play at least a partial role in this severe wind event, a level 2 became necessary. The overall risk diminishes from west to east during the day. The level-2 was expanded well towards the west, as latest data indicates a slow-down of the eastward progression of the strongest winds.

Further north, west-central UK, an isolated tornado event is also forecast, given some marginal CAPE and strong shear. A level 1 may cover this risk due to the overall weaker shear.

... NW/N France ...

A prolonged period of deep convection is forecast to affect W/NW and N-France during the day and even affects parts of W-Belgium during the evening hours. A broad swath of enhanced directional LL shear and 100-500 J/kg MLCAPE (decreasing towards the ENE) overlap, so tornadoes and strong to severe wind gusts are likely in the broad level-1. Isolated large hail also increases during the afternoon hours, as strongest updrafts with low WBZ values occur. The risk diminishes during the evening and night hours, as CAPE decreases. Thunderstorm probabilities over the English Channel remain augmented during the night hours with an enduring severe wind gust risk.

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-11-14 00:21:00

Valid: 2009-11-13 23:00:00 - 2009-11-14 22:59:00

Regions Affected

England, Wales, southern Scotland and S/E Ireland (all of the UK is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Friday's story continues into Saturday... A very deep complex area of LOW pressure moves northeastwards across the United Kingdom, dominating the weather.

The initial cold front will move eastwards during the early hours, posing a risk of embedded thunderstorms and subsequently a threat of a moderate-intensity tornado. Severe winds will also affect southern UK until the evening hours, with a risk of gusts up to 80mph which may cause structural damage, and transport & power disruption.

Behind the cold front, numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop, particularly near western and southern coasts due to the differences between sea surface and land temperatures. Current thinking is the most likely area on the forecast map to see severe convection will be in the English Channel and the adjacent coastlines (southern England/northern France).

An occlusion moves eastwards across England and Wales during daylight hours, clearing by mid-afternoon. Indications are that convective activity may occur along this front, and may benefit from the favourable conditions for a moderate-intensity tornado, particularly in the counties bordering the south coast.

Further showers and local thunderstorms will plague the south and west coasts, at times moving inland into southern England, during the evening and night hours. This forecast may be updated if necessary during Saturday due to the complex setup.

[k66yla]

Thx Guys

Getting ready for it here, have amazing Mammatus overhead with a great Anvil to my South East, can hear booms in the distance which sound like bombs going off :unsure:

Going into London in about 30 mins and there is supposed to be a fly past for the Lord Mayor's Show with Fireworks over the River at 5pm (Weather Permitting LOL)

Paul S

I heard a few booms about 30mins ago, was'nt sure what it was, thought I was going mad....lol

[Mike Storm]

relatively calm here now, like the sound of garage doors and windows being blown off, i might get some extra work out of ths.... tv aerials that it is!

[dogs32]

thx for that Coast....didnt realise Estofex updated the situation..

looks like it could get worse after all

Edited November 14, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

Woke up to the thunder and lightning this morning woohoo - huge bang, strong winds and torrential rain (squall line m'lud?)!! After a heavy night out it has ensured I do not go back to bed, lol!!! Nice to see a Level 2 over the UK! :unsure:

[dogs32]

you can see the telephone wire bending on this live stream

http://www.hopeandanchor.co.uk/webcam.html

Edited November 14, 2009 by dogs32