Rain / Winds / Storms - Friday Into Saturday

[NL]

And for anyone intrested, newest Meto IR shows a classic Sting-Jet on the Southern Hook off Southern Ireland.

Certainly looks like a sting jet to me.

Sat24 IR satellite image

[NL]

. can anyone confirm deepening and list any bouys around the centre of this low ?

M3 : 51.2166°N 10.5500°W buoy just off the coast of southwestern tip of Eire has reported pressure at 972.4 for the last couple of hours so remaining pretty constant at the moment.

http://www.marine.ie/home/publicationsdata/data/buoys/DataBuoyHome.htm

[winter watcher]

i dont know if this is my imagination but i feel that the low is beginning to deepen even further . this is clearly visible if you look at the last two hour met office sattelite runs . the area for concern is currently around 150 miles west of lands end and travelling west at around 50 miles an hour on average . around 0530 we will have a good idea of what cornwall and devon are experiencing . i feel it is going to be a lot worse than expected . around 0930 to 1000 london will be affected by this . rush hour chaos in a well populated area dangerous and very very high wind speeds . we are experiencing a lull . sadly it does look like it is deepening but there is also a slight sign it is moving slightly south south east . i feel northern france may get a severe battering from this too . can anyone confirm deepening and list any bouys around the centre of this low ?

Hi peter hope you are well yes in your relation to your question it does well look the case and it has been deepening alot the past 2-3 hours. I explained earlier that i fear this storm could well and most certainly has the full potential to be the real deal which in my case goes way back to 87. The reason is thus far simple i have studied this over the last 36+ hours and was expecting this morning to downgrade but to me and possibly alot others it has ramped up big style i said earlier think off a bomb that is on a timer and waiting to go bang that to me sums up what we are going to experience over the next 12+ hours. Been very gusty here and over the past 2 hours heavy rain but i am very confident now off this being a big big storm and even going to do a all nighter. Hopefully you will join me stay safe mate.

[Optimus Prime]

Can't say the situation is looking any worse.

[winter watcher]

Can't say the situation is looking any worse.

Hi op now in all seriousness i dont think you can find much worse bar al a 1987 For southern britain that is.

[Buckster76]

i dont know if this is my imagination but i feel that the low is beginning to deepen even further . this is clearly visible if you look at the last two hour met office sattelite runs . the area for concern is currently around 150 miles west of lands end and travelling east at around 50 miles an hour on average . around 0530 we will have a good idea of what cornwall and devon are experiencing . i feel it is going to be a lot worse than expected . around 0930 to 1000 london will be affected by this . rush hour chaos in a well populated inland area dangerous and very very high wind speeds . we are experiencing a lull . sadly it does look like it is deepening but there is also a slight sign it is moving slightly south south east . i feel northern france may get a severe battering from this too . can anyone confirm deepening and list any bouys around the centre of this low ?

rush hour chaos ?

it is Saturday this morning right ... just checking as I haven't done any ironing ...

[Optimus Prime]

To be fair, Saturday is a working day these days for many.

I think I could dig out a fair number of charts that are worse Winter Watcher. Seem to remember 2002 being the last 'big' storm here in the south.

[weatherobsuk]

Not forgetting theres Football/Rugby/Horse racing events, people flying in/out of Airports aswell as Ferry Ports aswell as the mentioned few million who chose to work Weekends such as call-centre staff, emergency services, those who work in retail or at the Ports themselves or within the Infrastructure of the UK. All are going to be affected someway by this incoming Storm by the Morning.

[Buckster76]

Not forgetting theres Football/Rugby/Horse racing events, people flying in/out of Airports aswell as Ferry Ports aswell as the mentioned few million who chose to work Weekends such as call-centre staff, emergency services, those who work in retail or at the Ports themselves or within the Infrastructure of the UK. All are going to be affected someway by this incoming Storm by the Morning.

yes - but to be fair - all things considered - a pre-10am on a Saturday - is about the quietest part of the week for the majority of places. Was just pointing out its not the normal rush-hour - volume of people wise.

and football/rugby/horse racing etc don't normally start at 9.30am - so as long as its cleared by say 1pm - then most of those would not be effected ?

not downgrading the storm, but there are worse times it could hit, say 8am on a Thursday

[PeterDoswell]

yes i am up monitoring the sat pictures etc . 0300 hrs sat just released by met office . worst weather is around 120 miles west of lands end . system travelling east at around 35 - 50 miles an hour . still expect cornwall to be the teller around 0530 - 0630 . any bouy updates or deepening ? system seem direct east now rather than south east which threatens the whole of the south coast with whatever this beast is going to throw at us ?

[weatherobsuk]

Thats true, as someone who used to watch football myself however I know that often away games would mean early starts for travelling. I'd think the sdsame could be said for thousands travelling to some of the League games in the morning. However given the conditions forecast I think its always going to be a question of "If's", and as you rightly said, any other day of the week then there'd be more of a population risk due to the regular-working commuting numbers.

[Buckster76]

yes i am up monitoring the sat pictures etc . 0300 hrs sat just released by met office . worst weather is around 120 miles west of lands end . system travelling east at around 35 - 50 miles an hour . still expect cornwall to be the teller around 0530 - 0630 . any bouy updates or deepening ? system seem direct east now rather than south east which threatens the whole of the south coast with whatever this beast is going to throw at us ?

looking good on this Sat animation

http://www.sat24.com/

[weatherobsuk]

0300-0310 theres definitely a defined Hook Echo on the back-edge of that Oxford Bow-Line. No Doubt about it. Somewhere around Trowbridge it looks like given a rough estimate, heading in a NNE Direction.

[Duane S.]

Glad to see I'm not the only nutter still up. Hopefully this will fulfil its promise (after all, that is what most of us want) as I've been harping on about this system all week at work! :-)

Still planning to head of to Portland at about 4:10am. Worst of the winds wont be there by then I doubt but that is high tide so should be interesting.

[winter watcher]

looking good on this Sat animation

http://www.sat24.com/

Good link there mark i dont know if its me but if you look directly at that hook and as it runs on i see a picture off a angry man or the devil look closely tell me what you think may need to pop to specsavers mind lol. plus had a few

[Polar Bear]

Hi folks,

I was going to set the alarm but needing bovered as the wind woke me up and here I am. Think it was more of a squall, as quiet again now.....went out to retrieve the cat too but need not have bothered It has a hefty old squall and it is quite sheltered so goodness only imagines what the south west have been and will be battered by..especially as you have said there could be a devil in the tail....

[Roger J Smith]

I agree this storm is winding up to deliver a second punch by morning, the upper air charts at 00z were showing 110 knot winds at 500-mb and 150 knots at 250 mbs (still from a S to SSW direction) at Valentia and other nearby stations.

The cloud swirl just north of the K1 buoy combined with 40-50 knot winds in that general area suggest that we can't take the 00z GFS as set in stone on details, there could in fact be a developing tighter gradient with this southern centre that could accelerate the surface winds now phasing behind the broken squall line that runs from southeast Ireland across south Wales but is not yet continuous across the southwest, but seems to be setting up in an arc approaching Devon-Brittany.

What it all means, I think, is that winds will increase again and that gust potential remains high for all parts of southern and central England ahead of the surface trough, from now to at least noon west to east. This means the most severe part of the storm may all lie ahead and that some places could be seeing very strong gusts by 0600h or so.

The line of convection approaching London seems to have outrun its upper support and may not continue very much longer before dissipating, but will be replaced by a more vigorous squall line by 0800 in roughly the same place, I believe.

Will be checking some other models as they come out to see if they can out-detect the GFS and find the key to more intense development. Even northern England is in with a shout now that this has lagged behind the original timetable and very strong winds appear to be trying to punch through the surface grunge to rock your world in Lancs, Yorks and northward.

Key to real trouble would be seeing any pressures falling below 968 mbs around south Wales or Irish Sea.

Edited November 14, 2009 by Roger J Smith

[Ross B]

We haven't had anything really from this storm until 5mins ago when a huge rumble of thunder just woke me up Still just raining lightly!

[PeterDoswell]

listening to radio 5 live up all night . st catherines point isle of wight has reported a 85 mph gust and that is BEFORE the second more dangerous system comes in over the next 4 - 5 hours . Cornwall still the place to look over the next hour or two for whats coming . 9 ( METRE ) WAVES reported off the south west coast . That is about 27 foot waves . I wouldnt be at all surprised to see widespread damage and recorded gusts in excess of 100mph this morning .

[Duane S.]

Just arrived back home after watching the waves in Chiswell, Portland. A truly humbling experience, as indeed it always is.

The semi-darkness just gave the waves an even more sinister feel to them. I must admit that that is the first time I have been as aprehensive as that watching waves there. I kept a VERY careful eye on wave gap times and further out to sea for any extreme waves breaking very early (and my car was parked VERY close with the door wide open!). 10 minutes was enough for me though.

I survived the waves then nearly got wiped out by a tree on my way home!

Edited November 14, 2009 by s4lancia

[PeterDoswell]

i think the place where you were can expect the worst in the next three hours the coasts of cornwall should be experiencing something dramatic soon . hopefully someone can update soon . not sure if it is filling slightly now ???? reports of 57 mph in isles of scilly now . but the worst is still an hour away from there i would say so major strengthening ???

Edited November 14, 2009 by PeterDoswell

[winter watcher]

Just a latest update from me here in surrey i am probally experienceing the most heaviest ammount off rain here in the last month really is tipping it down here the local river behind me is now burst the drains have packed up why did i not clean my driveway drains out when i had the chance to

[dogs32]

gusty here on and off but nothing major to report...

no rain

lots of heavy showers now building in the west with some sferics

Edited November 14, 2009 by dogs32

[winter watcher]

I managed to find a working link to a web cam in looe cornwall. Seems very very bad there atm hope everyone is safely tucked up and battoned down their hatches before. heres the link http://www.looe.co.uk/webcam/webcam.htmk

Edited November 14, 2009 by winter watcher

[03jtrickey]

gusty here on and off but nothing major to report...

no rain

lots of heavy showers now building in the west with some sferics

I'm worried this will turn out to be another squib here. It's breezy outside but nothing special. Latest GFS run has downgraded the intensity of the low as well.