Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[NorthantsSnow]

Freezing fog right now in Northampton.

[snowinbrum]

I havent been on this forum for a long time, however after viewing the recent posts i felt i had to interveen, people dont be so down hearted ! The metoffice and the BBC are both forecasting snow for all the midlands, just be more up beat about the fact that we may well have a big snowfall on our hands!

[Fozfoster]

is that better!

[A.J]

also of note is the annoyance of people commenting on every bbc weather forecast! so what if they said snow over the hills, or the graphics arent showing snow at 3pm over smethwick, and are over dudley, its not going to be entirely accurate y'know!

That was my point....a few posters seem to be hanging on every word certain tv forecasters make, as soon as a well known 'ramper' forecaster doesnt say the magic words 'blizzard' and 'the midlands will get clobbered' their mood quickly changes to despondancy...It happens every time the potential of snow is forecast, and quite frankly, does my head in!

As far more experienced posters say elsewhere on the forum, watch the models & radars, and 'now-cast'....That'll tell what the weather is predicted to be, not some extremely vague 90 second TV forecast!

[stevomatt]

Freezing fog right now in Northampton.

thick fog here in wellingborough- what is diff between freezing fog and just fog (apart from temp) does it look diff?

[Bolton67]

thick fog here in wellingborough- what is diff between freezing fog and just fog (apart from temp) does it look diff?

Fog is Fog

[Albion Snowman]

That was my point....a few posters seem to be hanging on every word certain tv forecasters make, as soon as a well known 'ramper' forecaster doesnt say the magic words 'blizzard' and 'the midlands will get clobbered' their mood quickly changes to despondancy...It happens every time the potential of snow is forecast, and quite frankly, does my head in!

As far more experienced posters say elsewhere on the forum, watch the models & radars, and 'now-cast'....That'll tell what the weather is predicted to be, not some extremely vague 90 second TV forecast!

I see and agree with where you are coming from but being as every fresh forecast is getting closer and closer to the event and more details become apparent, people are going to hang on to the words of the forecasters.

[Fozfoster]

Fog is Fog

[stevomatt]

well i guess i have fog lol

[A.J]

I see and agree with where you are coming from but being as every fresh forecast is getting closer and closer to the event and more details become apparent, people are going to hang on to the words of the forecasters.

I understand what you're saying, and also apologise as the tone of my post was rather derogatory...For the record, I secretly felt that the GFS runs are going to be nearer the mark than other models, and this 'event' is going to be more marginal than initially anticipated, however I do stand by my comment that model/radar watching will be a far more reliable indicator than media forecasts during the next 24-36 hours

[azores92]

I see and agree with where you are coming from but being as every fresh forecast is getting closer and closer to the event and more details become apparent, people are going to hang on to the words of the forecasters.

but sometimes you have to use the tools, and words of experienced internet forecasters to get an indication of what the weather might be like. two classic events i can think of where the weather has turned out differently to forecast, even within hours of the event, are the february "winter storm", where the models saw the event as marginal, but the forecasters showed it as snow up until the last minute, when it realised it was marginal like the models showed. another good example is more recently, with that band of snow moving down from the north. the beeb made the band more marginal than it turned out to be. i think many of us in the west midlands are in with a good shot, im in ians 5-10cm band anyway so i aint complaining

Edited December 28, 2009 by azores92

[I remember Atlantic 252]

just as expected 18Z pushes low south, bad thing I think, ppn may not reach me, this 18Z is an upgrade only for SE, probably why model thread excited

[A.J]

just as expected 18Z pushes low south, bad thing I think, ppn may not reach me, this 18Z is an upgrade only for SE, probably why model thread excited

Not neccessarily so Mark....just posted the following in the South West thread....interested on your thoughts...

"TBH Pat, I dont see much of an upgrade for the SW...The 0C 850 line is pretty much stationary down the M4 corridor...IMO no chance of snow with that 850 temp....Where it does get more interesting is further north, between say, gloucester & Brum...If GFS 12z was to believed, then uppers were around 0 to -2C...The -5 850 line has shunted further south, hovering around north of brum....This, if correct, could lead to a narrow band of heavy wet snow (say 75 mile north to south) setting up from the gloucester area stretching through central wales, with the northern boundary somewhere on a line roughly Stoke to Derby....This all, of course, if the GFS18z were to play out accuratley

Just my two penneth! "

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Surely we should prefer the 18z rather than the 0z or 6z, it takes some heavy PPN to the North Midlands and we get no mild day on Wednesday. Obviously, though the general concensus is that the PPN will stall and then fade further South.

looked very patchy, bitty on bbc, 18Z surely means though that the precip leaves us on wednesday as cold air wins too soon, bbc just shown a dry day wednesday, precip miles south

[PolarWarsaw]

Everyone looking forward to there snow? IM looking forward to the rain personally, well that's the PPN that will fall from my skies. The rest of the week looks cold and boring for our areas whilst all areas around get snowed in again. LOL the west midlands snow avoidance system has clearly been deployed again.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Everyone looking forward to there snow? IM looking forward to the rain personally, well that's the PPN that will fall from my skies. The rest of the week looks cold and boring for our areas whilst all areas around get snowed in again. LOL the west midlands snow avoidance system has clearly been deployed again.

I noticed earlier your negativity and now again , why i wonder? Do not look at the beeb as an accurate guide for ppn , yes it gives you an idea where its gonna fall , but trust me it will be snow falling on your doors step and nothing else .

Edited December 28, 2009 by shaun wilmer

[loopydreamer]

im soooo excited right now! not gonna be able to sleep tonight! still looking good for my area i hope

[Nick L]

I noticed earlier your negativity and now again , why i wonder? Do not look at the beeb as an accurate guide for ppn , yes it gives you an idea where its gonna fall , but trust me it will be snow falling on your doors step and nothing else .

I agree.

Radders, if anything falls from the sky for you it will be snow, perhaps sleet at first. I promise you!

[loopydreamer]

I noticed earlier your negativity and now again , why i wonder? Do not look at the beeb as an accurate guide for ppn , yes it gives you an idea where its gonna fall , but trust me it will be snow falling on your doors step and nothing else .

yep agreed! for god sake get a few beers down radders and chill man!

[we_want_snow]

Well well well...

Puts me in the 90%, i'd be dissapointed not to see 10cm from this, atleast

http://null.co.uk/?page_id=2

[Serendipity]

im soooo excited right now! not gonna be able to sleep tonight! still looking good for my area i hope

I'd say it looks good for our area!

[we_want_snow]

I'll also take this moment to wish everyone good luck and I hope we can all see atleast 1in from it

[Buckster]

does it matter - just because the models are showing it to be more marginal doesn't mean they are wrong ?

if it snows it snows - if it doesn't - well it'll just be a bit wet !

[we_want_snow]

I've got a totally mixed bag of forecasts so who knows? Metoffice are my saviour for a change, they're usually wrong so........ and null, everything else going for rain.

Really is a now-casting event

[loopydreamer]

I'd say it looks good for our area!

hey serendipity! GOOD TO HEAR FROM YA GAL!

cant help but be positive by this so i'll say it " we r gonna get a big dumping of snow