Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Albion Snowman]

Sounds like a big downgrade from Rob mcelwee just. Talking about snow only at elevation and at best wet snow elsewhere.

[mildmuck]

Most of the Midlands is under a warning, the colours indicate confidence levels and severity of the weather event. If things stay as they are, then you'll see everywhere in the 'yellow' warned areas upgrade to a 'be prepared' warning tomorrow, as confidence levels will obviously be greater than they are now.

Hummm will see ..

[cyclonic happiness]

Sounds like a big downgrade from Rob mcelwee just. Talking about snow only at elevation and at best wet snow elsewhere.

You should be ok then, me too hopefully, this must be one of the most uncertain snow events in the history of internet weather forums??!!! (reaches for the brandy)

Oh almost forgot, the wet snow thing....10th december 1990 was wet snow....we got just over 2 feet of the stuff and no power and water for 4 days so.......

Edited December 28, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[NorthantsSnow]

Sounds like a big downgrade from Rob mcelwee just. Talking about snow only at elevation and at best wet snow elsewhere.

Yes, massive downgrade from Rob compared to his forecast yesterday. I was proper disappointed when I heard that.

Still time for changes but he didn't seem convinced that snow would be too much of a story tomorrow.

[Albion Snowman]

You should be ok then, me too hopefully, this must be one of the most uncertain snow events in the history of internet weather forums??!!! (reaches for the brandy)

I personally dont think I will be high enough. He mentioned high ground over wales and Chilterns. Ah well, speculating gets us nowhere, its fascinating how close it is!

[mildmuck]

Yes, massive downgrade from Rob compared to his forecast yesterday. I was proper disappointed when I heard that.

Still time for changes but he didn't seem convinced that snow would be too much of a story tomorrow.

It is a disappointment.

My instincts seem to be serving me well at the moment.

Edited December 28, 2009 by mildmuck

[Nick L]

Wrong. The advisory area does not indicate sleet with snow on hills, that's just your negativity getting in the way of making a sound judgement of what to expect tomorrow. The places in the Midlands under the 'Be Aware' advisory is an early warning for severe weather. In this case, it is heavy snowfall. The 'Be Prepared' warnings for eastern Wales and western parts of the West Midlands have a greater risk of seeing significant snowfall, and the confidence in this is higher than elsewhere across the Midlands, which is why the Met Office upgraded it today.

I see Ian Fergusson posted a map of the likely snowfall accumulations for the areas within the snowfall risk area. I would agree with those estimations.

Spot on. Nowhere in the warning does it say "only for hills".

[cyclonic happiness]

Spot on. Nowhere in the warning does it say "only for hills".

Not many people live on really high hills, so it would be waiste of time to do forecasts for them save for walkers and such.

Edited December 28, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[A.J]

Sounds like a big downgrade from Rob mcelwee just. Talking about snow only at elevation and at best wet snow elsewhere.

Yes, massive downgrade from Rob compared to his forecast yesterday. I was proper disappointed when I heard that.

Still time for changes but he didn't seem convinced that snow would be too much of a story tomorrow.

I didnt realise as well as presenting the weather Mr Mcelwee also makes the weather!

[mildmuck]

Wrong. The advisory area does not indicate sleet with snow on hills, that's just your negativity getting in the way of making a sound judgement of what to expect tomorrow. The places in the Midlands under the 'Be Aware' advisory is an early warning for severe weather. In this case, it is heavy snowfall. The 'Be Prepared' warnings for eastern Wales and western parts of the West Midlands have a greater risk of seeing significant snowfall, and the confidence in this is higher than elsewhere across the Midlands, which is why the Met Office upgraded it today.

I see Ian Fergusson posted a map of the likely snowfall accumulations for the areas within the snowfall risk area. I would agree with those estimations.

These advisories are issued by 1300 daily as routine, though they may be updated at other times if required. They indicate confidence of expected severe or extreme weather. Early warnings and Flash Warnings supersede advisories when confidence levels are 60% or greater.

Doesn't necessarily mean they will upgrade the warnings i think it's if the possibility of severe weather in that area arises and to keep the public Aware of the Threat of severe weather.

[stevomatt]

so northants not looking great then?

[Hedgehog]

Minus 0.5c

Dew point -1c

Says it falling -0.4c/hr

Am expecting the white stuff here and around Kettering if we do get anything

Peter

[Buckster]

If the threat of snowfall still exists for places under the 'Be Aware' advisories, they will be upgraded tomorrow morning as confidence levels will be greater than they are now. That's me reiterating what I said earlier.

That's not me being confident, that's just fact. They upgrade their warnings based on confidence and the severity of the event in question. I'll say no more on this subject.

agreed - but they also can suddenly all be removed too

we'll see

[NorthantsSnow]

If the threat of snowfall still exists for places under the 'Be Aware' advisories, they will be upgraded tomorrow morning as confidence levels will be greater than they are now. That's me reiterating what I said earlier.

That's not me being confident, that's just fact. They upgrade their warnings based on confidence and the severity of the event in question. I'll say no more on this subject.

The advisories likely won't be updated again. Instead they will slowly be replaced by flash warnings which means the event is likely to occur within the next few hours.

[azores92]

my oh my theres a lot of pessimism in the forum tonight. wheres everybodys optimism? the MO website forecasts snow all day tomorrow for many parts of the midlands, and all the main forecasting discussions are suggesting that even lower parts of the midlands and eastern wales will see accumulations of snow. yes, i am probably being my over optimistic self, but i just dont see why people are being so downright pessimistic.

[Nick L]

Well either way, this will probably be one of the best chances for a snow event this winter. The upcoming cold spell probably won't deliver the goods as normal, so let's hope tomorrow pays off. Expect the unexpected.

[Costa Del Fal]

my oh my theres a lot of pessimism in the forum tonight. wheres everybodys optimism? the MO website forecasts snow all day tomorrow for many parts of the midlands, and all the main forecasting discussions are suggesting that even lower parts of the midlands and eastern wales will see accumulations of snow. yes, i am probably being my over optimistic self, but i just dont see why people are being so downright pessimistic.

I have to agree-it gets annoying to see that as soon as a drop of rain is seen on a forecast its then 'All over and a non event'. I feel we will see snow and probably a fair bit of it!

[Buckster]

I didn't like the .28 past News24 forecast - snow "maybe" for the hills in the Midlands

and specific reference to the snow event not being comparable to last weeks

oh well - fingers crossed it doesn't pan out that way

[Albion Snowman]

I didnt realise as well as presenting the weather Mr Mcelwee also makes the weather!

Yes but im only going on what he said... He is a weather forecaster

[J10]

I didn't like the .28 past News24 forecast - snow "maybe" for the hills in the Midlands

and specific reference to the snow event not being comparable to last weeks

oh well - fingers crossed it doesn't pan out that way

The specific reference was in relation to the SE of England.

No change in my eyes on that forecast.

[Buckster]

Yes but im only going on what he said... He is a weather forecaster

and an extremely well respected and senior BBC weatherforecaster too

also someone that normally takes great pleasure in forecasting thunderstorms and snow !

[Fozfoster]

thats from Ian Fergusson

Edited December 28, 2009 by fozfoster

[azores92]

also of note is the annoyance of people commenting on every bbc weather forecast! so what if they said snow over the hills, or the graphics arent showing snow at 3pm over smethwick, and are over dudley, its not going to be entirely accurate y'know!

[Buckster]

thats from Ian Furgusson

nice chart but 0-5cm covers a large area, but 0-5cm includes both 0.1cm and 0cm - so read it how you will

[Fozfoster]

nice chart but 0-5cm covers a large area, but 0-5cm includes both 0.1cm and 0cm - so read it how you will

I think that's as good has it get's when forecasting snow, fella good luck.