Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.

[swales]

They weren't sure neither were we...

They were just covering themselves incase

[Barb]

yep

we all know their were covering their behinds, BUT when a severe event DOES happen now, I reckon people will just brush it off, 'aw, nothing happened last few times, nothing will happen this time'

cue hundreds of people getting trapped in cars etc etc

I'm convinced that'll happen now.

True, in fact when we DID actually get proper snow (3-4 inches in valleys last week) there were no "Heavy Snow" warnings at all. Oh well, I suppose it's a difficult job.

[Cymro]

Yes i understand nobody is sure but where's they're nowcasting? if this was the south east then the warning would be upgraded or removed with current conditions its clearly obvious these areas arent going to have a snow accumilation tonight so why leave the warnings there? it's bullish, I just read what Ian had to say on the South West side and ive gota say i whole heartidly agree with him, Everyone on this forum seems to go GFS GFS and no over model output is ever as creditable when IMO UKMO is most certainly the best model we have here in the Uk.

[Marcus_surfer]

Still fairly cold here, overcast.

[Carl46Wrexham]

How typical...someone up there must have been watching me typing my previous post as the sleet has suddenly turned to snow and is trying its damndest to settle!

[bennytes]

True, in fact when we DID actually get proper snow (3-4 inches in valleys last week) there were no "Heavy Snow" warnings at all. Oh well, I suppose it's a difficult job.

yep, agreed.

we all have difficult jobs though, most of us not anywhere near the money these boys get.

if we make mistake after mistake, guess what happens?

there were a few posters on THIS forum who called this event spot on. Maybe they should replace all these Beeb/Met Office forecasters, eh?

[derrylynne]

There is still some heavy precipitation set for tomorrow morning, I know earlier we had 4-6cm within a few hours, or is this likely to be even more rain?

I am pretty sure it will be rain tomorrow although the mountains could get some...Will probably have to wait now till Thursday to see what happens.

[Cymro]

You know what's annoying no offence to those who've recieved snow twice, But after this passes and a North easterly kicks in the snow will go to the east and South east again and Scotland where it has never really left etc and all well get is sunny cold and crisp now if this would have delieverd snow to most then we could have been looking at a sustained period of snowcover but now, ZILCH, DIM, NULL.

[Barb]

Here's the Met Office warning for my town tonight and tomorrow:

60% Merthyr Tydfil

There is a high risk of severe weather affecting parts of Wales and central England. Periods of sleet and snow are likely to persist well into Wednesday. The snow will be heavy at times with drifting likely in strong easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions over hills.

10-15cm of snow is likely widely with 25cm or more possible over high ground of Wales.

So I can expect 10-15cm of snow tonight and tomorrow? Where exactly is that going to come from? It's clearly nonsense yet they still have it up, if I hadn't seen the models I'd be preparing to shovel myself out of my house by the morning

, what if I depended on their warnings for my plans? Not good enough is it?

[snowhope]

Netweather's very own John Holmes has called this most accurately. He stated it was always going to be an event for the higher altitudes. If we would have listenend to him in the first place there would be a lot more less surprised and unhappy people.

[soupsurfer7]

There is a great deal of snow accumulating in areas of Ceredigion - just been out in the car and the snow is VERY altitude dependant, ranging from slush to driving on inches of snow...

[Carl46Wrexham]

Here's the Met Office warning for my town tonight and tomorrow:

So I can expect 10-15cm of snow tonight and tomorrow? Where exactly is that going to come from? It's clearly nonsense yet they still have it up, if I hadn't seen the models I'd be preparing to shovel myself out of my house by the morning

, what if I depended on their warnings for my plans? Not good enough is it?

No way in a million years anyone living on lower ground in Wales is going to get anywhere near 10cm...very bad call from the Met Office. Back covering exercise from them without a shadow of a doubt. Trouble is...come the day when a major widespread snow event does come off (stop sniggering at the back there!) people will get caught out because they'll hear the warnings and ignore them because they've heard it all before and seen nothing to justify said warnings.

[DeepSnow]

just looked at the forecast on here for my area, and i know it will change but are our next chances thursday, and then sunday night into monday? still along way off but im trying to look for our next best chance now.

[Barb]

just looked at the forecast on here for my area, and i know it will change but are our next chances thursday, and then sunday night into monday? still along way off but im trying to look for our next best chance now.

Next Monday looks a chance of snow with a channel low moving in from the SW, similar to this one but it should be cold enough for snow this time... if it comes off which is unlikely.

[DeepSnow]

Next Monday looks a chance of snow with a channel low moving in from the SW, similar to this one but it should be cold enough for snow this time... if it comes off which is unlikely.

ok cool, i bet it will change some how so like normal everywhere else in the uk will get snow apart from us! thats what seems to be happening alot lately!

[andymusic]

The weather is the weather - and this was always going to be a knife edge event with no total guarantees of snow due to milder air coming into not so milder air but not frigid cold air like the type that could be on the cards shortly for all of us. Once the cold is locked in then we will have a better chance of a full snow "guaranteed" event.

[Barb]

Once the cold is locked in then we will have a better chance of a full snow "guaranteed" event.

True, precipitation in Wales is normally not much of an issue is it, the cold is the imporant and rare ingredient... if we get that then the odds of snow shoot up rapidly.

[casparjack]

I have to say as I sit here with my 5cms of very wet, now melting snow and light drizzle, (no wind either), this has to be one of the most overhyped warnings from the 'wow be careful mob' that I can ever remember.

What happened to the 50cms of snow in upland areas of the Welsh Marches and upland Mid Wales.

I was always sceptical due to the lack of cold air North of the system, but despite years of experience I was prepared, yet again to wait and see..

Oh well, back to the 'Model Discussion Thread'!!

[Snowyowl9]

Snow so much now the sattelite signal has just been lost.

I`ll have to clear the snow of it,already had one power cut today from thick rime on the trees from last night`s freezing fog,snow will be the next thing on the wires.

Looking like 6inches now,should die out later tonight and move north.

Edited December 29, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[CLH the red dragon]

Again a weather warning is to protect the public. Not to guarantee people snow.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Again a weather warning is to protect the public. Not to guarantee people snow.

No one is arguing that with you,yes the warnings are meant to protect the public but when the public hear warnings of snow depths of 10-15cm widely...disruption to transport and power supplies etc...and it doesnt happen, they tend to start adopting an attitute of "yeah yeah... heard it all before and nothing happened" to such warnings....bit like cry wolf I suppose.

[keithlucky]

No way in a million years anyone living on lower ground in Wales is going to get anywhere near 10cm...very bad call from the Met Office. Back covering exercise from them without a shadow of a doubt. Trouble is...come the day when a major widespread snow event does come off (stop sniggering at the back there!) people will get caught out because they'll hear the warnings and ignore them because they've heard it all before and seen nothing to justify said warnings.

It maybe pie in the sky but go into met site click on rain on wales map and according to that a pulse of wet weather moves up from the south tommorow.

[J10]

The met office should actually be worrying about their credibility right know considering the government funding they have. I fail to see why Ceredigion/Carmarthenshire/Swansea/Neath Portalbot etc were even upgraded into the orange zone, nobody i know has reported snow accumilating to great amounts in These areas. we had sno here yeah but wet stuff very wet that certainly wouldnt warrant a warning, not even the hills that are 400m abs behind my house are white, its very pathetic.

I was surprised that these areas were added to the list this morning, fair enough have the advance warning but despite snow falling here at 160m asl, it was never going to stick.

However I still think that the Met Office are being unfairly criticised here, after all it was the only the other week, they were criticised for not issuing warnings.

This is the actual warning

"Outbreaks of sleet and snow are expected to become heavy at times, particularly over high ground, with accumulations of 5 to 10 cm, and with locally 20 to 30 cm on hills. Strong winds will also cause drifting of the snow.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to Traffic Wales for further advice regarding traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads. "

So for low ground 2-4 inches, which was a bit over the top but not the extent that many are claiming.

This was a very marginal event here on the coast, admittedly at altitude we had over half an inch of rain and 2c, if the upper temps were a couple of degrees lower, we could easily have had 6 inches of snow.

In the summer on a hot day, does it really matter if it's 23 or 25c, not really.

[CLH the red dragon]

No one is arguing that with you,yes the warnings are meant to protect the public but when the public hear warnings of snow depths of 10-15cm widely...disruption to transport and power supplies etc...and it doesnt happen, they tend to start adopting an attitute of "yeah yeah... heard it all before and nothing happened" to such warnings....bit like cry wolf I suppose.

I drove out at 1 pm. In my village nothing. The hills 1 mile north were deadly. I then went round to Gilfach which was amazing at 1:30. Three miles left little, three miles right little, but Gilfach north was nasty. Dowlais still is judging by the cam. It didn't deliver as much but it did deliver to people. The METO were right to give a warning to such an unpredicatble event.

[keithlucky]

Next Monday looks a chance of snow with a channel low moving in from the SW, similar to this one but it should be cold enough for snow this time... if it comes off which is unlikely.

Should reach us early monday colder air in place much better prospects.

I was surprised that these areas were added to the list this morning, fair enough have the advance warning but despite snow falling here at 160m asl, it was never going to stick.

However I still think that the Met Office are being unfairly criticised here, after all it was the only the other week, they were criticised for not issuing warnings.

Fair point jack one but after all the rain we had later on they upgraded the warning including swansea in the new warning 5cms of snow possible even after the rain had cleared.

Edited December 29, 2009 by JACKONE