Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion.

[J10]

Should reach us early monday colder air in place much better prospects.

Fair point jack one but after all the rain we had later on they upgraded the warning including swansea in the new warning 5cms of snow possible even after the rain had cleared.

I already made that point, I was surprised that we were added (at 1.46pm). Even though it was snowing heavily at the time, it did seem clear that the main band was set to clear us quickly, without this much risk of any heavy snow.

If I was being spurious I could add that there are some very high spots in Swansea, NPT and Carms, above 300m, but these are not that widespread.

[BranMan]

Had about 2 - 3 inches of snow here and its been drizzling now for a few hours. It aint shifting it because its only 0.9C still.

it was good to hear the weather warnings....basically for those less able than many of us ie the elderly, at least they can stay in and not get caught out, slip outside, end up with a broken hip, spend 6 weeks in hospital, 4 weeks in respite and the rest of their life with more arthritis and worry.

Ebbw Vale has had 6 inches of snow....Powys, it' still snowing, and there's a good possibilty that some of the places which had snow today and now raining or drizzling will have another 2 or 3 hour spell of snow tomorrow as the front turns around and comes back south.

Well done to the Met Office for putting out warnings this time, they have failed recently but they've certainly given the councils a chance to grit the roads just in case. All our major routes here are passabke with careful driving and its only because the gritters were warned.....

The bsuses and the taxis in Cwmbran did come to a halt today as they were all called off again but it was pretty bad about 3pm. I ended up taking the local doctor home because she couldn't get her car out of the surgery car park.

The weather warnings are to warn us of weather and not to guarantee us snowbees a snowfest and this time they've done a good job.

Unfortunately, not everyone has got the snow they wanted, but it's always hit and miss with this type of weather set up so warnings should really go out anyway...don't you think ?

anyway, thats my take on it all....looking forward to more snow tomorrow and next sunday night.

If there are weather warnings out again, I'll make sure that people who live in my unaccesable street get some contact before hand to let them know and also help out if they need anything, like clearing a path, buying some groceries etc.....

Well done the Met Office and the gritters

Bullworker

Cwmbran Se Wales 100m asl ( 5 miles east of Newport - higher ground )

[CLH the red dragon]

I've rarely driven in sleet but my word it's deadly. Far worse than snow.

[Icequeen]

I've rarely driven in sleet but my word it's deadly. Far worse than snow.

Sad now after seeing warning include Swansea got my hopes up , but I agree also about the warnings being for public safety but you can't help but get excited if you love snow when you see the warnings. I hope there is more to come during the rest of the winter

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

I to was quite surprised this morning at the metoffice warnings being extended for heavy snow around Swansea, Neath, Carmarthen etc.. Perhaps just being cautious, i do know though that upper air temps wernt supporting snow for much of the coastal areas in South Wales (Though slightly better in SE Wales im sure).

Again i did see snow at 250m though it was wet and didnt last long quickly turning back to sleet. Looking around and it seems as if most the hills below 300m and closer to the coast experienced much the same. Couldnt see over towards the Brecon Beacons- higher up and further north and east of me- Snow was on the cards there.

If this block over greenland can stay around long enough allowing a cold theme to continue then so our chances of wintry weather are increased, but first we need to establish the cold then look for the precipitation.

[J10]

Sad now after seeing warning include Swansea got my hopes up , but I agree also about the warnings being for public safety but you can't help but get excited if you love snow when you see the warnings. I hope there is more to come during the rest of the winter

To be honest, I didn't got my hopes up for here, I said yesterday on the forum, that we would get a wintry mix, which is what happened. However I did think that other inland parts would have done better.

[derrylynne]

t

To be honest, I didn't got my hopes up for here, I said yesterday on the forum, that we would get a wintry mix, which is what happened. However I did think that other he

There is about a foot of snow on the top of the Bwlch mountain now. Although the road is closed. Nice to look at as it is in front of me - but not to drive up. lol. However, down here it has been sleet or very wet snow all day. Some ice around so not a nice day. I reckon if the precipitation keeps going it will be pretty deadly up there.....

[keithlucky]

To be honest, I didn't got my hopes up for here, I said yesterday on the forum, that we would get a wintry mix, which is what happened. However I did think that other inland parts would have done better.

Yes woke at 5 3c went to work 3c came home 3c amazingly consistant.But i would have put money on merthyr being snowbound.

[J10]

I to was quite surprised this morning at the metoffice warnings being extended for heavy snow around Swansea, Neath, Carmarthen etc.. Perhaps just being cautious, i do know though that upper air temps wernt supporting snow for much of the coastal areas in South Wales (Though slightly better in SE Wales im sure).

Partly right, after all it did snow in Swansea today, but settling snow always seemed a long shot, unless they counted hills in the far North of the County.

---------------------------------------

Looking at the Skew t diagrams, which in a way confirms your point about upper air temps.

If you look at this you can see that temps for Cardiff rose well above 0c, before falling back as you reach the ground, so any snow is likely to be wet even before it hits the lower atmosphere, so even though there was snow in the heavier burst, and temporary accumulations at lowers levels it was always odds against settling snow.

If we look at a similar one for Wrexham (chosen to extend the point somewhat, as others for Northern South Wales tend to match Cardiffs), you can see that the upper temps are lower so that, by the time the snow hits the lower atmosphere, it remains as snow, giving a much better chance of snow.

It was asked earlier in the forum, how come despite the intensity of the snow, why wasn't it sticking, the answer is it was already wet by the time it got even close to the ground, so only the highest ground, with the coldest temps and preferably in slighlty colder upper air temps, was the snow dry enough to stick. Also in areas with lower upper air temps, this allowed evaporational cooling to set in.

Going forward to next week, and it's 5 days away, so I can understand if you are thinking that is Fantasy Island.

The lower upper air temps currently projected gives a much better chance of snow then compared to today.

One final comment about today, the front actually ended up further north and quicker than the NAE projected last night, if the converse was true, by even 50-100 miles, this would have been a much snowier affair, even with identical starting ground level temperatures.

Yes woke at 5 3c went to work 3c came home 3c amazingly consistent.But i would have put money on merthyr being snowbound.

Very consistent here at 2c all day and in Mumbles, temp between 3.8c and 4.5c since 6am

http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/mumbles_head_latest_weather_graphs.html

[Jamie.]

We had a decent covering of snow in the SE Today. From about 2-3pm it was very heavy.

Took a while for the snow to settle to begin with as the ground was wet.

Surpising to here places nearby which are higher up had less snow than us though .

Ice/rain shower earlier which has melted some of the snow. Was odd as dewpoint was -1.4C?

Hopefully we'll see some more Thursday/Friday :lol:.

[Hywel]

still snowing lightly here, about 12cm of fresh snow

[loadsa]

The prople who wrote about the met office and their credibility are spot on. As I pointed out yesterday depending on which of their forecasts you look at you dont always get the same outlook. For example the forecast for Cardiff yesterday the 5 day showed rain all the way despite the map showing sleet over Cardiff. I also have a boat in Swansea and depend on their marine forecast on whether to travel from my home and take the boat out. The other week the local forecast for Swansea was for dry and sunny yet the inshore water forecast was for Wintry showers in the same area. Lost count of the amount of times the boat has remained tied up on the back of the met office forecast only for friends to phone later to say that it was like a mill pond out there, also been on the other side where I have taken it out on their sayso only to make a hasty retreat for home when the weather has turned. Now every morning I intend to go out I phone the coast guard for the conditions.

Met Office = Value for money you are having a laugh. They should employ some of the amateurs on here who seen to get it more accurate with half the resources.

Rant over

[DeepSnow]

Well met office still have a warning for heavy snow in bridgend "There is a moderate risk of severe weather continuing to affect parts of England and Wales on Wednesday.

Further periods of sleet and snow are likely at times during the day. Accumulations of 2-5cm are possible at low levels with a risk of 10-20cm over high ground."

would be nice if only a few cm, but temp has risen to 2.6C so i can't see us getting any yet, but will have to see what happens as the day goes on. Haven't got my hope's up this time though,

[whiskers]

morning all, the temp currently here at blackwood is 2 still a layer of slush and ice on the ground with ice rain falling ,gmtv still had a warning for snow for us does anybody know if we are due any today? the wind is quite high here and freezing cold quite dangerous underfoot too.

[Marcus_surfer]

heavy rain here again, more rain than snow

[DeepSnow]

heavy rain here again, more rain than snow

we haven't even got that, a bit of light rain has just started. Temp up at 3.1C, i guess this band has brought some milder air with it.

[Cymro]

Got sleet here

[Carl46Wrexham]

Got sleet here

Steady rain here.

Already heard a number of people asking this morning where the snow that was forecast is.

Of more concern is also hearing from the same people what I was fearing last night....hearing comments such as "those warnings dished out are a sack of ****" "I'll take no notice next time" etc etc

[Totoro]

<br />Steady rain here.<br /><br />Already heard a number of people asking this morning where the snow that was forecast is.<br /><br />Of more concern is also hearing from the same people what I was fearing last night....hearing comments such as "those warnings dished out are a sack of ****" "I'll take no notice next time" etc etc<br />

With the met office it's a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" - what doesn't help are newspapers screaming sensational headlines such as "major freeze-up on the way, -20C" etc

But anyhow, back to the weather in Wales - here the temp is crawling up VERY slowly, now at 2.3C (was 1.9C at 9am) and it's piddling down. Northwards moving front is slowing, so should soon stall and return southwards, MAYBE with some snow on the back edge. We'll see. :lol:

[Barb]

Maybe this time our luck will be in?

Potential snow event for Sunday and early next week.

[DeepSnow]

Moderate/heavy sleety rain here now and temp still 3C, more rain than anything at the moment though.

[keithlucky]

Maybe this time our luck will be in?

Potential snow event for Sunday and early next week.

Looks like look to swest again . front approaches monday morning hopefully colder air in place this time,and it slides further south.

[J10]

heavy rain here again, more rain than snow

We had heavy sleet (or sleety rain) here earlier, temps 2.5c

No chance of any real wintriness today, perhaps tomorrow as the front pushes back south, but I suspect it will be dry by then.

The GFS run above suggesting the snow is an outlier, most runs have the precipitation not hitting the UK, keeping the front too far to the south, with the cold block to the north, likely to keep the LP well away from us.

[casparjack]

We had heavy sleet (or sleety rain) here earlier, temps 2.5c

No chance of any real wintriness today, perhaps tomorrow as the front pushes back south, but I suspect it will be dry by then.

We've had drizzle with the occasional snow flake mixed in all morning, temp now risen to 1.7c from a low of 0.2c at 5.24am...

Still got lying snow, 2-3cms, but very wet and melting slowly.

[casparjack]

Snowing again here now, very wet flakes, but it is snow.

Temp back down to 1.5c, dewpoint 1.3c though...