Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Lewis]

Based on what? Theres absolutely nothing in the models to suggest that. On the 24 hour accumulation charts nowhere really recieves more than 5-7mm and even that is right on the coast. Bear in mind most of that would be falling onto ground at 3-4C, so it will take some time to lay (if it actually does). Not to mention its in shower form, so will thaw between each fall. Some areas can expect a centimeter or two at best but yet again like last time and your 15-20cm estimates you're vastly exaggerating.

I think you'll find, and other members on here will agree with me on this, that my estimations were spot on, and in some places exceeded, ask GMG, and various other posters in Yorkshire and lincs.

I'm basing my estimations not for my/our area, but for further North, and NE lincs.. purely based on the output of the models, i have not taken into account my general experience of these setups, and knowledge of how things work. Reason why i have not stuck my neck out yet with my own forecasts is because i don't think the 06Z will verify.

Lewis

Lewis checkout this radar Brings back memories of the GAP the other week don't you think? PPN up north moving in from the north sea and a bit on it's way into east anglia :lol:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Nothing forming in the N sea as of yet mate

http://www.teleweer.nl/Radar.aspx

Edited December 31, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[reef]

East Yorkshire/North Yorkshire: Frequent snow showers during Thursday penetrating inland and becoming much heavier Thursday night overnight into Friday, total accumulations come 9pm Friday night: 10-18cm with North Yorkshire exceeding this.

N Lincs/S Lincs (Including East Lincs and East Midlands): Again Frequent snow showers during Thursday into Friday coming off the N sea, some very heavy showers possible around the Wash ares, total accumulation come 9pm Friday night: 15-20cm

West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire: As we are still unsure about how far inland these showers will penetrate my estimations may be off the mark a little, i think in general these area's have a better chance of seeing accumulations during Friday am, and then overnight Friday into Saturday, Total accumulations come 9pm Friday night: 4-10cm. Although the further west you are in this region, the less persistent/organized and potent the showers will be.

I'll update later on, before I go i just want to leave you with this fantastic chart for our region, mouth watering

850 Temps Tapping into -11 to -12...

http://www.weatherinhull.com/tap.png

15-20cm by Friday night. From your very own post.

How about we stick to the facts and talk about what the models are actually showing?

Thanks.

[Lewis]

15-20cm by Friday night. From your very own post.

How about we stick to the facts and talk about what the models are actually showing?

Thanks.

Parts of lincs around the Wash that night received more than 12cm

N Yorkshire got about 8-10cm

How about you just stop picking on my posts mate, i have not once today said we as in HULL will see that amount..

Why don't you do a forecast?

Lewis

[Chrissy]

Parts of lincs around the Wash that night received more than 12cm

N Yorkshire got about 8-10cm

How about you just stop picking on my posts mate, i have not once today said we as in HULL will see that amount..

Why don't you do a forecast?

Lewis

Light Snow showers now filtering into to the region from the east.

This looks similar to the setup on the 17th 18th dec when we had 3 to 4 inches during the night.

Good luck everyone.

[sunny scunny]

Some very dark clouds around here at presant, and i wouldn't be surprised if a few flakes started to appear shortly.

[Jeremy Shockey]

having a light shower of snow /graupel mix at the moment in South Cave

[Lewis]

Temp dropping was 5.4c 40 mins ago, now 4.6c with a dew of -1.6

lewis

Edited December 31, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[turna]

I still think 7-12cm is possible over 24 hours, especially NE lincs and N Yorkshire.

Lewis

based on what lewis? i just cant see anything to suggest anything other than a cm or two at the most. not even mentioned it to my son, feel it will be a non event (for now anyway)

[johnholmes]

Temp dropping was 5.4c 40 mins ago, now 4.6c with a dew of -1.6

lewis

Lewis-a word in your shell like-its 1449 and one would expect the temperature to start dropping at this time of the year given the synoptics we have.

i know you are very enthusiastic but do you think perhaps in your enthusiasm you are posting a touch too many times with not very much in some posts?

I've already tried in the model thread to persuade some people that this winter so far is fairly memorable-see the model thread for my stats-we are possibly, neither I nor anyone else can really be sure but we could be into a fairly memorable winter.

many years ago we all had to rely on a forecast, some just the radio if you are my age, then along came the tele' and people like Bill, Ian etc were able to show us a graphical representation of what MIGHT happen for 24 sometimes 48 hours ahead.

Since those days computer models have allowed forecast levels to improve markedly at all ranges. However forecasting precip, even less when its a will it or wont it snow is still not much better for detail at more than 12 at most 24 hours notice. So, advice, check your dry bulb and dewpoints, watch the satellites and radars, and peep at the models precip forecasts but no more than 24 hours ahead. use the Guide on trying to forecast snow-the most important thing to remember is does it show precip over my area if not then forget any snow for that period.

I know its probably annoying Lewis and perhaps some others but this thread along with some of the other threads gets cluttered up with posts that tell none of us very much.

end of jh rant and apologies Brain for trespassing into off topic territory.

[Lewis]

based on what lewis? i just cant see anything to suggest anything other than a cm or two at the most. not even mentioned it to my son, feel it will be a non event (for now anyway)

Bear in mind my post was relating to a 24 hour period starting tonight, they will be showers for NE parts of lincs according to the models tonight into the early hours, and the North York moors, and other parts of N Yorkshire will see some rather frequent showers.

So based on the models that's what mate.

I would not tell your son as we don't want him to be disappointed, but i favor NE Lincs and N Yorkshire.

East Yorkshire - Looks like a magic gap for at least 24 hours, but they could be a surprise.

Lewis-a word in your shell like-its 1449 and one would expect the temperature to start dropping at this time of the year given the synoptics we have.

i know you are very enthusiastic but do you think perhaps in your enthusiasm you are posting a touch too many times with not very much in some posts?

I've already tried in the model thread to persuade some people that this winter so far is fairly memorable-see the model thread for my stats-we are possibly, neither I nor anyone else can really be sure but we could be into a fairly memorable winter.

many years ago we all had to rely on a forecast, some just the radio if you are my age, then along came the tele' and people like Bill, Ian etc were able to show us a graphical representation of what MIGHT happen for 24 sometimes 48 hours ahead.

Since those days computer models have allowed forecast levels to improve markedly at all ranges. However forecasting precip, even less when its a will it or wont it snow is still not much better for detail at more than 12 at most 24 hours notice. So, advice, check your dry bulb and dewpoints, watch the satellites and radars, and peep at the models precip forecasts but no more than 24 hours ahead. use the Guide on trying to forecast snow-the most important thing to remember is does it show precip over my area if not then forget any snow for that period.

I know its probably annoying Lewis and perhaps some others but this thread along with some of the other threads gets cluttered up with posts that tell none of us very much.

end of jh rant and apologies Brain for trespassing into off topic territory.

I agree with you John about posting my temp etc, but i have had issues with my weather station and i have just moved it again, so i share my temp and dew and hopefully i get a response from people around my region with there conditions in their back gardens.

I know if conditions are right for snowfall, i have since i was about 9 years old. Grant you this area can be a pain in the neck sometimes especially when you end up with a slack flow and 850's generally between -5 to -6, you normally get a wintry mix, mainly of graupel and snow etc. If we had this setup 4 weeks ago it would have been rain. But the last cold spell has brought the north sea SSTS down a fair bit, so we don't get as much modification from the N Sea.

Also regarding some of my posts, and this thread, i think the Yorkshire and lincs thread is the cleanest and most on topic of them all. Everyone on this thread contributes greatly and it's a really friendly thread. If you look at some of my posts, they are no different to others, and if you look at some of my other posts, just like JBD's etc you will find they are rather informative including charts from the models etc.

Not forgetting to mention Muffelchen's post's, SUFC, WS, reefs, Brians and many others, we all have an equally important input.

Lewis

Edited December 31, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[Richie V]

Bear in mind my post was relating to a 24 hour period starting tonight, they will be showers for NE parts of lincs according to the models tonight into the early hours, and the North York moors, and other parts of N Yorkshire will see some rather frequent showers.

So based on the models that's what mate.

I would not tell your son as we don't want him to be disappointed, but i favor NE Lincs and N Yorkshire.

East Yorkshire - Looks like a magic gap for at least 24 hours, but they could be a surprise.

I agree with you John about posting my temp etc, but i have had issues with my weather station and i have just moved it again, so i share my temp and dew and hopefully i get a response from people around my region with there conditions in their back gardens.

I know if conditions are right for snowfall, i have since i was about 9 years old. Grant you this area can be a pain in the neck sometimes especially when you end up with a slack flow and 850's generally between -5 to -6, you normally get a wintry mix, mainly of graupel and snow etc. If we had this setup 4 weeks ago it would have been rain. But the last cold spell has brought the north sea SSTS down a fair bit, so we don't get as much modification from the N Sea.

Also regarding some of my posts, and this thread, i think the Yorkshire and lincs thread is the cleanest and most on topic of them all. Everyone on this thread contributes greatly and it's a really friendly thread. If you look at some of my posts, they are no different to others, and if you look at some of my other posts, just like JBD's etc you will find they are rather informative including charts from the models etc.

Not forgetting to mention Muffelchen's post's, SUFC, WS, and many others, we all have an equally important input.

Lewis

Mensioning no names (lewis it was not you) I now refuse to add my reports and thaughts in here since I was accused of been better than everyone else and the fact that the temps were not important anywhere else other than Darton, south yorks. The fact I have a meteorology degree makes me aultomatically better than everyone else in some eyes eh! WRONG.......... we are all equal, Please to everyone, stop crying and enjoy.

Edited December 31, 2009 by Chassisbot

[Craigers]

just had light snow shower

[WS Evolution]

Flash warnings have now been issues by the met office for North Yorkshire.

Showers or rain, sleet and snow will continue during Thursday evening, overnight and into New Year's Day. These will fall onto already frozen roads and paths causing widespread ice in places. Falls of a few more cm of fresh snow are likely away from the coast.

[pottyprof]

Temps here are dropping away rather sharply. Currently 1.9C with dew point of 1.4C

Feels rather cold..

[Richie V]

Temps here are dropping away rather sharply. Currently 1.9C with dew point of 1.4C

Feels rather cold..

Happy effing everything to you to sir.

That siggy is great

[Just Before Dawn]

Lewis-a word in your shell like-its 1449 and one would expect the temperature to start dropping at this time of the year given the synoptics we have.

i know you are very enthusiastic but do you think perhaps in your enthusiasm you are posting a touch too many times with not very much in some posts?

I've already tried in the model thread to persuade some people that this winter so far is fairly memorable-see the model thread for my stats-we are possibly, neither I nor anyone else can really be sure but we could be into a fairly memorable winter.

many years ago we all had to rely on a forecast, some just the radio if you are my age, then along came the tele' and people like Bill, Ian etc were able to show us a graphical representation of what MIGHT happen for 24 sometimes 48 hours ahead.

Since those days computer models have allowed forecast levels to improve markedly at all ranges. However forecasting precip, even less when its a will it or wont it snow is still not much better for detail at more than 12 at most 24 hours notice. So, advice, check your dry bulb and dewpoints, watch the satellites and radars, and peep at the models precip forecasts but no more than 24 hours ahead. use the Guide on trying to forecast snow-the most important thing to remember is does it show precip over my area if not then forget any snow for that period.

I know its probably annoying Lewis and perhaps some others but this thread along with some of the other threads gets cluttered up with posts that tell none of us very much.

end of jh rant and apologies Brain for trespassing into off topic territory.

Predicting snow is always a bit of a black art isn't it? (Actually it should be white art, but you get the point) - and it's a stage-by-stage process in my experience, and some of the stages are based on personal experience.As you say John, Dry Bulb and dew point critical, even more so precipitation estimates, which can be a bit dicey when trying to get a grip on convective shower activity. Obviously the direction of flow is critical, but local topography also plays a role - the {insert place name here} snow shield gag is only a half-joke, and it's an experience-based thing taking into account things as diverse as local topography, heat-island effects (in slack air), coastal sea temps. That's why I never predict snow depths. I do admire those who are prepared to stick their neck out though, particularly if they explain why they think the way they do. Radar watching, and a close eye on dry-bulb and dew point and that'll do me. That's one of the reasons why I'm not too worried about lack of MetO warnings - 12 hours from now, we can have an idea of what the ppn situation might be, but it will only be an idea, so there's no sense in getting worked up about it, one way or the other. Besides which, I don't want to be greedy - the 6 consecutive days of falling snow here before Christmas already marks this winter as outside the ordinary for recent years, so if this next phase is perhaps not quite as good as hoped (not that this is pinned down by any stretch) well then, I can't complain too much.

The shower activity over Tyne & Wear and Teeside is creeping very slowly south, but it is very slow, and the bits and pieces that are coming ashore between Mablethorpe and Super Sunny Skeggy in Lincs seem to be hail/graupel. Air flow direction is largely ENE at the moment and we'll need that to change to a more North-Easterly flow for the east of the region to benefit tonight and early tomorrow. The showers are penetrating a fair way inland - the irony might be that places in the NW of our patch, along with the North York Moors will see some falling snow before South and East Yorks and Lincs do! Not often you can say that in an easterly focussed event (at least at the moment)!

Edited December 31, 2009 by Just Before Dawn

[Cheese Rice]

I must admit I am a bit disappointed, I would of expected showers last night going by the posts made yesterday, but it seems the showers are too far north. I'm still expecting the showers to slowly move further south, but at a painfully slow rate.

Does anyone know the reason behind there been little if any shower activity? I'm guessing it is the increase in cloud which wasn't forecast by the BBC.

Edit: 0.7c now

Edited December 31, 2009 by 10123

[fazzafarrand]

I must admit I am a bit disappointed, I would of expected showers last night going by the posts made yesterday, but it seems the showers are too far north. I'm still expecting the showers to slowly move further south, but at a painfully slow rate.

Does anyone know the reason behind there been little if any shower activity? I'm guessing it is the increase in cloud which wasn't forecast by the BBC.

Edit: 0.7c now

drizzle here!!!!!

[Craigers]

2.5c dew-2.8c

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

We have had a couple of hail showers here this afternoon with a strong cold wind. The temperature got up to around 5 earlier on but has thankfully taken a tumble recently. Travelling up to Scarborough tomorrow, could be fun if those precipitation charts verify. Current temp 4 with dew of -3.

Edited December 31, 2009 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Mark Bayley]

Just seen a few small flakes falling out the sky as cloud increased. Now watching it clear with the moon rising above!

[Craigers]

Just seen a few small flakes falling out the sky as cloud increased. Now watching it clear with the moon rising above!

perfect indication for a another covering with it snowing so easily now with dews and ground drying up and icing over

[woldsowl]

We have had a couple of hail showers here this afternoon with a strong cold wind. The temperature got up to around 5 earlier on but has thankfully taken a tumble recently. Travelling up to Scarborough tomorrow, could be fun if those precipitation charts verify. Current temp 4 with dew of -3.

Wave as you pass through!!!

Frequent light soft hail, but light. Temp 2.1 DP -4. Still a lot of snow in the valley here, yet the hills are clear.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Wave as you pass through!!!

Frequent light soft hail, but light. Temp 2.1 DP -4. Still a lot of snow in the valley here, yet the hills are clear.

Will do . Should I be worried about the snow covered country roads or will they be ok. The forecasts arn't that helpful really.

[Cal]

Superb UKMetO run this evening.