Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Just Before Dawn]

I think UKMO fax charts, and radar watching is in order now. The 06Z shows a more northerly flow, which i think is wrong, due to the way it handles the LP.

12z, will be back in order i think

Lewis

I think that's right Lewis - we're in the timescales now where radar-watching will be the best way to assess where ppn is likely. 06z GFS looks good in terms of thicknesses and dew points for North and East Yorkshire from later this afternoon and for Lincolnshire by later this evening, so anything overnight should be snow except perhaps right on the coastal fringe. By tomorrow, even that should be OK. The more northerly flow is a bit of a pain, but it's still east of due north, which offers some hope. Due north and it really would be 5-10km from the coast except traditionally favoured spots like the North York Moors. I expect that the 06z is off a bit here too - and that there will be a more easterly component to airflows, but even if the 06z verified, I still think it wouldn't be a disaster - the longer sea track would at least generate more instability, potentially heavier showers with the potential for these to retain ppn longer over land, meaning that this might offset less favourable wind direction in terms of inland snow potential, at least in part.

SUFC, the 6z GFS run has ppn over us until 12pm today, however it's been dry and bright all morning. The outputs for tonight and tomorrow do draw ppn closer to the coast, but for you it's only 10 or so km from where the edge of the ppn is expected to extend to, on the basis of the 6z output - with that sort of fine detail, I'd not yet write off the possibility of showers pushing that far inland.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

In answer to gobbyash above, I think because in their latest analysis they do not see showery activity getting very far inland, and they believe that the front progged for tomorrow evening is now likely to be a very weak affair with very little in the way of precipitation. Away from the east coast I feel that cold and dry is becoming increasingly likely for this upcoming cold spell.

Edited December 31, 2009 by Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

[Richard Lake]

Just started snowing here, albeit very light just blowing in the wind. A rogue cloud over Cleethorpes as we speak giving nothing more than a tease of what could be to come?

Edited December 31, 2009 by rikki

[The PIT]

Anyone know why weather warnings have been downgraded to only include North Yorkshire?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/yh/yh_forecast_warnings.html

Yorkshire & Humber:

N Yorkshire

Widespread Icy Roads & Heavy Snow Thu 31 Dec

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Scotland and Northeast England through New Year's Eve evening and into New Year's Day.

Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, coupled with freezing temperatures will cause widespread icy roads in places. Showers will fall as snow away from coastal districts and could give more than 5cm of fresh snow in places.

Issued at: 0947 Thu 31 Dec

Yorkshire & Humber:

N Yorkshire

Widespread Icy Roads & Heavy Snow Fri 1 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Scotland and Northeast England continuing from New Year's Eve night into New Year's Day

Further Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, coupled with freezing temperatures will cause widespread icy roads in places.

Showers will fall as snow away from coastal districts and could give more than 5cm of fresh snow in places.

Issued at: 1013 Thu 31 Dec

Probably a good thing as the last warnings were a joke. So probably get a dumping instead.

[Richard Lake]

Looking at the radar I am unsure in which direction the expected snowfall is to reach us here in Lincolnshire. There appears to be nothing within range coming across the North Sea, but some activity over Scotland that could drift this way I guess.

[WS Evolution]

Probably a good thing as the last warnings were a joke. So probably get a dumping instead.

They have been downgraded because it looks likely that significant showers will be for the far north east of our region for today and tomorrow. Radar currently showing the showers to the north of out region so its correct so far. I hope the showers shift further south, but I think away from the North York Moors the chances of seeing significant snow have reduced for tonight and tomorrow.

Edited December 31, 2009 by WS Evolution

[sparky1972]

certainly nothing to get excited about.

[sunny scunny]

certainly nothing to get excited about.

I agree,although the outlook could easily change, and by mid next week the charts could easily be showing much more chances for snow.It was important we got the cold first,so now it's just a case of being patient and hopefully things will change for the better as far as snow goes.

[Lewis]

The warnings are gone, but the chance of snow has not..

I actually think the met office have made a bit of a fluff of this, they have not even updated their general forecast since 3am this morning, yes 06z chart has changed things a little, but even still the 00z was fantastic, as was the ECM.

SO what they are going on is beyond me...

Lewis

[WS Evolution]

Based on the latest charts the shot term chance of snow has reduced away from the north and east facing hills of the North York Moors. If the models change or the showers start developing further south, so will the warnings. Long term the chance of snow is still good, but not as good as it was showing yesterday. Met office warnings seem fair to me.

Edited December 31, 2009 by WS Evolution

[Craigers]

the thing is metoffice never get it right as they got that thursday wrong with all that gap in the showers! model watching is the best at mo, should be alot of suprises though!

[winterof79]

The warnings are gone, but the chance of snow has not..

I actually think the met office have made a bit of a fluff of this, they have not even updated their general forecast since 3am this morning, yes 06z chart has changed things a little, but even still the 00z was fantastic, as was the ECM.

SO what they are going on is beyond me...

Lewis

Just had a peek at raintoday radar,looks like the showers are pepping up and sinking south from Newcastle to my untrained eye.A warning for Northumberland would not have gone amiss

Edited December 31, 2009 by winterof79

[Lewis]

After looking at the NMM model on the 06z output.

I have decided that the FLOW will have a more Easterly component as JBD suggested earlier.

It's not until 4-5 am tomorrow morning when the component has a more northerly feature. Even then, we see a trough heading down south across the region, and the NMM model shows this fantastic. Not much of a downgrade at all after looking at a better resolution.

Heres a few charts of the NMM model, i added sea surface pressure so you can see what i mean.

Tonight (10pm)

Friday 3am

Friday Night - Shows a trough pushing south across all of our region, and getting quite far inland, something the normal res GFS does not show.

Interesting chart below that shows the 24 hour accumulative precipitation

Yes there's another gap there, but i would not worry one bit about it. The above chart on the 06z "according to many as a downgrade". Shows generally 7-12cm quite widely closer to the coast, and also further inland.

Conclusion:

Until the 12z GFS rolls out i will base my predictions on the current 06z output.

I think generally South of the region into N/NE lincs will do very well and of course N Yorkshire will do very well too, for East Yorkshire & Inland areas of N lincs we will catch the odd heavy shower, but nothing as organized and prolonged as to the N and S of us. This is from around 6pm-8pm tonight up until Friday dinner time.

Friday afternoon and into the evening see's a trough push down from the South. UKMO fax chart shows the warmer sector of the LP shifting west across Ireland a little further North and westwards, the won't be anything marginal as the band of precipitation is much further south then programmed by the models. Cold air behind, in front, and over us.

Looking very interesting on Friday night into Saturday. I think parts of East Yorkshire will get there best chance tomorrow, with a possible covering of 1-2cm, possibly more for rural areas out of towns/cities.

I'll do an update when the 12z rolls out, probably around 4:50 which gives me time to look at the NMM at higher res.

Areas to see the most snowfall for me between now and 4am tomorrow morning' NE Lincs, N Yorkshire/Scarborough area.

Lewis

Edited December 31, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[WS Evolution]

the thing is metoffice never get it right as they got that Thursday wrong with all that gap in the showers! model watching is the best at mo, should be alot of suprises though!

The warnings are for an area of risk, they don't say everyone will be hit in that region and they can't predict exactly where the showers will be in those situations. Its all about levels of risk for an area. If you just miss out it does not mean the warning was wrong ! as the risk was still there. Thats way they say "moderate risk".

I am hoping the showers do develop further south and further inland tonight but so far today the warning areas are correct. if they start developing south of North Yorkshire I am sure they will update the warnings.

Edited December 31, 2009 by WS Evolution

[Lewis]

I would also like to add that there is a little surface based cape and LI, along with mixed level cape, expect some of the showers to have a rumble of thunder in and a flash of lightning.

Convective potential is very good,

Heavy graupel/snow shower over me now, sky's black, and it's a home grown one... So showers are and will continue to form.

Lewis

Edited December 31, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[WS Evolution]

Just had a peek at raintoday radar,looks like the showers are pepping up and sinking south from Newcastle to my untrained eye.A warning for Northumberland would not have gone amiss

Yes slight movement south and a few flurries south of the main band of showers, but for significant snow today and tonight away from the North York moors we need that moving allot further south. Or developing widely along the coast.

Edited December 31, 2009 by WS Evolution

[Lewis]

Clearly shows the trough on the met office chart right over us. pushing from the North. (Tomorrow)

[reef]

I think the Metoffice have got it spot on. The showers that are moving into eastern areas at the moment are light in nature and will not provide any meaningful coverings as temperatures are still too high. I always laugh when I see people trying to make estimates on snow depths as they are almost always too high. It seems some never learn from past experiences.

Bear in mind this easterly is slightly milder than the last and even then temperatures in the east at low levels struggled to make it below freezing until the wind veered north.

[Muffelchen]

Lewis, still dry in Bev but dark to the south and east. Temp here is 4.1°C with a dewpoint of -3.2°C so will only snow in showers with cold air descending.

Interestingly showers are coming in from the NE yet my backgraden station has been showing East to SE all morning. Is there a bit of low level shear around? There is certainly upper level shear: cirrocumulus was coming in from the west this morning at a fair old lick whilst at lower levesl the cumulus was coming in from the east!

All in all, very interesting weather at the mo.

Hopefully will get some snow before I go back to work on Monday....

[Lewis]

I think the Metoffice have got it spot on. The showers that are moving into eastern areas at the moment are light in nature and will not provide any meaningful coverings as temperatures are still too high. I always laugh when I see people trying to make estimates on snow depths as they are almost always too high. It seems some never learn from past experiences.

Bear in mind this easterly is slightly milder than the last and even then temperatures in the east at low levels struggled to make it below freezing until the wind veered north.

I still think 7-12cm is possible over 24 hours, especially NE lincs and N Yorkshire.

Lewis

[winterof79]

What are your thoughts on the disturbance s/w of Norway Lewis?

[Lewis]

Lewis, still dry in Bev but dark to the south and east. Temp here is 4.1°C with a dewpoint of -3.2°C so will only snow in showers with cold air descending.

Interestingly showers are coming in from the NE yet my backgraden station has been showing East to SE all morning. Is there a bit of low level shear around? There is certainly upper level shear: cirrocumulus was coming in from the west this morning at a fair old lick whilst at lower levesl the cumulus was coming in from the east!

All in all, very interesting weather at the mo.

Hopefully will get some snow before I go back to work on Monday....

Very interesting indeed, your dew is crazy lol. Until the temps start dropping it will be mainly of hail/graupel, i had a mixture of light snow and graupel 15 mins ago.

Heres lower layer shear.

Lewis

[reef]

I still think 7-12cm is possible over 24 hours, especially NE lincs and N Yorkshire.

Lewis

Based on what? Theres absolutely nothing in the models to suggest that. On the 24 hour accumulation charts nowhere really recieves more than 5-7mm and even that is right on the coast. Bear in mind most of that would be falling onto ground at 3-4C, so it will take some time to lay (if it actually does). Not to mention its in shower form, so will thaw between each fall. Some areas can expect a centimeter or two at best but yet again like last time and your 15-20cm estimates you're vastly exaggerating.

[Lewis]

What are your thoughts on the disturbance s/w of Norway Lewis?

Looks very good, the latest models have picked up on it.

I'll wait and see the 12z GFS and ECM 12z and get back to you. There is short waves all over the place on the 06z, good for chances of snow/precipitation but when your talking about LP'S sinking from the North, it can be on the borderline of danger with warmer sectors.

I still think the 06z is off the mark with the LP, if you pushed the LP to the NE of Scotland further North by say 80 miles, it would make such a difference, same with the LP to the SW, the GFS is showing that further N too, but we would be fine if that happened.

Lewis

Edited December 31, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[sunny scunny]

Lewis checkout this radar Brings back memories of the GAP the other week don't you think? PPN up north moving in from the north sea and a bit on it's way into east anglia :lol:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/