Scotland Cold Spell Discussion Part 12

[glasgow-guy]

snow back on again very fluffy flakes falling hopefully late afternoon will bring a fall in temp and a more sustained period of snow accumulation

[Stockaree]

Snow stopped for now. I doubt the occlusion will come to much more than an inch or two, but that's still a reasonable amount of snow, and there is the potential for slight upgrades closer to the time. Monday night into Tuesday looks interesting as well, with a cold front moving south, though the potential from Tuesday night onwards for eastern areas is vast.

Note the flow by Wednesday is ENE/NE, meaning that the precipitation takes a sea rather than a land track for eastern areas. Note also the troughing from Scandi to eastern England. After that, the ECM goes for a full blown easterly, which would bring heavy snow streamers across the central belt for days on end.

Plenty of scope for school stopping snow events!!

LS

Not great for coastal regions with the wind coming of the sea?

[glasgow-guy]

this morning scene from my window

[LomondSnowstorm]

The GFS NW version has temps off the scale for Saturday 9th for the central Highlands. Temp map gets down to -30C if my contour counting is correct.

Obviously unlikely, as we have seen over the past two weeks it has been very difficult to get a "perfect" set up for min temps. But it demonstrates the potential.

Minima has been kept above -20C throughout the spell simply because there has been so much snow bearing cloud across Scotland. However, next week for northern areas looks drier (though not really for those further east and south!) so minima looks potentially colder. With most of the cloud coming from the east next week, I'd expect the coldest minima to come from either the central or northwest highlands, with Aviemore more likely to see cloud cover at times. If we can get 2 days and night with the sky totally clear in northern Scotland, I think there is a very real chance of breaking at the very least the -20C barrier with potentially -25C or even the -27.3C record broken if we're very lucky. Still more snow on the way for central and eastern areas for at least the first half of next week, with the potential for days on end of easterly showers if the ECM 12Z verified. Brighter interlude here at the moment with temperatures of 1.5C, though I doubt we're done with snow today!

LS

[howham]

With all the snow falling over recent days I've hardly been looking further ahead, but I get the impression that severe cold is on the way from reading some recent posts. Would ice days be a possibility in eastern areas or would the wind off the sea keep things above freezing? Similarly, are the easterlies going to be less marginal? I'm sure the Aberdeen dwellers would like to know that! Further inland here with 8-9 inches in the garden!!

[stewfox]

Minima has been kept above -20C throughout the spell simply because there has been so much snow bearing cloud across Scotland. However, next week for northern areas looks drier (though not really for those further east and south!) so minima looks potentially colder. With most of the cloud coming from the east next week, I'd expect the coldest minima to come from either the central or northwest highlands, with Aviemore more likely to see cloud cover at times. If we can get 2 days and night with the sky totally clear in northern Scotland, I think there is a very real chance of breaking at the very least the -20C barrier with potentially -25C or even the -27.3C record broken if we're very lucky. Still more snow on the way for central and eastern areas for at least the first half of next week, with the potential for days on end of easterly showers if the ECM 12Z verified. Brighter interlude here at the moment with temperatures of 1.5C, though I doubt we're done with snow today!

LS

A -20c is forcasts for tonight in Scotland with Glasgow again below -8c

[shuggee]

Heavy sleet and sleety snow all morning here in the city centre. Temps rose to 2/1ºC earlier. Now dropped back to 1/0ºC and the nw radar suggests that the uppers have dropped to -8ºC and now it is very heavy snow settling on all surfaces. I think I've enough evidence now to cement the suggestion that it only snows at sea level from a strong easterly here when uppers go down below -8ºC. This is the fourth time now in a the last few years and each time it's held true. That bloody north sea is a curse for its warmth, but a blessing to generate the snow!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Snow back on here after an sunny hour and a half. Pretty light now but a more persistant band looks like approaching from the northeast.

[glasgow-guy]

moderate snow falling I hope the old firm game doesn't get cancelled for sun

[Mondy]

Lovely image taken an hour ago - shows much snow just south of Faroes

[Methuselah]

Heavy sleet and sleety snow all morning here in the city centre. Temps rose to 2/1ºC earlier. Now dropped back to 1/0ºC and the nw radar suggests that the uppers have dropped to -8ºC and now it is very heavy snow settling on all surfaces. I think I've enough evidence now to cement the suggestion that it only snows at sea level from a strong easterly here when uppers go down below -8ºC. This is the fourth time now in a the last few years and each time it's held true. That bloody north sea is a curse for its warmth, but a blessing to generate the snow!!

Aye, Shuggs. The -8 mark ties-in very well with what happened here last night...

[Mondy]

Another, closer view

[shuggee]

Aye Pete - and -4ºC is the point at which it seems to snow from other directions if there's already snow on the ground to cool the surface. -5ºC remains the benchmark with no snow on the ground from any direction without an easterly component.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Incredibly heavy snow here. Can barely see the car now! Think I heard thunder also! Took a video of it which I'll post later. About an inch on the road which was clear about 10 minutes ago!!

What a spell!

[Methuselah]

We've had marginality almost all the time, so far...Hopefully, there should be no-such problems over the coming few days?? Touch wood, clutch straw!

[lorenzo]

Hail followed by decent snowfall here.. starting to feel colder already, think tonight will see some cracking low temps.

with a little melting earlier today on the look out for some icicles !

[Thundery wintry showers]

Aye, Shuggs. The -8 mark ties-in very well with what happened here last night...

Just saw this, and wanted to mention that it's much the same near the Tyne & Wear coast with a strong onshore wind. If the 850hPa temps fall below -8C it usually means falling and lying snow right out to the coast, but -8C and above often sees the coastal strip warmed too much, giving a wintry mix.

[snowy owl]

Incredibly heavy snow here. Can barely see the car now! Think I heard thunder also! Took a video of it which I'll post later. About an inch on the road which was clear about 10 minutes ago!!

What a spell!

Well managed my trip into town (edinburgh) bit hairy coming back as the roads were so slippy with that heavy snow shower. Clouds are building again looks like we're in for more snow.

Managed to clear the driveway of the pack ice, its released just enough to get the spade into it. Although i think its gonna get covered soon with more snow lol!

Looks increasingly snowy for Tuesday, daren't think how bad it might be!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just saw this, and wanted to mention that it's much the same near the Tyne & Wear coast with a strong onshore wind. If the 850hPa temps fall below -8C it usually means falling and lying snow right out to the coast, but -8C and above often sees the coastal strip warmed too much, giving a wintry mix.

I know what you mean - the difference between 7 and 10 miles inland with uppers around -6C is huge! No trouble though at the moment with uppers approaching -10C and snow lying on all surfaces!

We will remember this winter when we are old and grey as a corker.

LS

[shuggee]

Just saw this, and wanted to mention that it's much the same near the Tyne & Wear coast with a strong onshore wind. If the 850hPa temps fall below -8C it usually means falling and lying snow right out to the coast, but -8C and above often sees the coastal strip warmed too much, giving a wintry mix.

Well I think we have concensus - something to remember for future outbreaks

Just to say Ian - there was much lying snow in Lancaster on passing on the train last night

Back to today, and there's no such worries about anything other than snow. -10 to -12ºC 850s are approaching

[Methuselah]

Just saw this, and wanted to mention that it's much the same near the Tyne & Wear coast with a strong onshore wind. If the 850hPa temps fall below -8C it usually means falling and lying snow right out to the coast, but -8C and above often sees the coastal strip warmed too much, giving a wintry mix.

Also interesting??? Last week (when the wind was in the SW and surface air at -7C) we had heavy settling snow with uppers of only -4 or -5...It turned to sleet the second the NE wind picked-up!

[Stockaree]

Aye Pete - and -4ºC is the point at which it seems to snow from other directions if there's already snow on the ground to cool the surface. -5ºC remains the benchmark with no snow on the ground from any direction without an easterly component.

That snow shower you mentioned missed the north-west of Edinburgh drove down to portobello and even had snow down here

Are we likely to be lucky over the next couple of days or is there to much wind of the sea, Might take a visit to the pentlands for some good snow

[shuggee]

I think for the next couple of days John (at least) it's going to be cold enough to snow anywhere. In the easterly flow upper temps are now cold enough to snow at the coast, and tomorrow night when the uppers are progged to rise a little (say to -7ºC)* the wind swings more northerly so the influence of the wind off the warmer sea is gone. All good

*that's a sentence I don't think I've written before!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think for the next couple of days John (at least) it's going to be cold enough to snow anywhere. In the easterly flow upper temps are now cold enough to snow at the coast, and tomorrow night when the uppers are progged to rise a little (say to -7ºC)* the wind swings more northerly so the influence of the wind off the warmer sea is gone. All good

*that's a sentence I don't think I've written before!

Yep, next week doesn't look vaguely marginal at any point - our only concern, for once, is getting the precipitation! Snow back on again here after a very brief lull. Tomorrow night has a fair bit of promise (let's see what the fantastic NMM has to say about it!), with a very nice outlook from Monday evening onwards. A bit of uncertainty about where the block will end up, but if the ECM 00Z verifies we'll get an entire week of magic -10 uppers and snow from the ENE! Not seen anything like this in my lifetime.

LS

[Duncan McAlister]

On the MetO site they're showing rain for Glasgow Bishopton during the late morning/lunchtime period today. Surely not? I was at Haggs Castle and the snow was heavy.

Edited January 2, 2010 by Duncan McAlister