Scotland Cold Spell Discussion Part 12

[Methuselah]

I wonder how low the minima will get, once all the early/mid-week snowfalls have finished...Is the record at risk?

[shuggee]

On the MetO site they're showing rain for Glasgow Bishopton during the late morning/lunchtime period today. Surely not? I was at Haggs Castle and the snow was heavy.

Probably wrong on both counts Duncan:

[Mondy]

Whiteout conditions here. Brilliant!

[LomondSnowstorm]

On the MetO site they're showing rain for Glasgow Bishopton during the late morning/lunchtime period today. Surely not? I was at Haggs Castle and the snow was heavy.

That happens quite a lot here with Leuchars, which is always reporting light rain showers during big snowfall events - I think they pick the mildest locations for some populated areas - perhaps something to do with cold weather payments for the elderly??

[lorenzo]

Just awesome channel of cold on the forecast charts - this freeze keeps on developing.

The GFS run shows the cold from the continent entrenching itself over the UK until the end of next week !

Potential for lowest temp, potential for consistent 2 days of snow

Lomond - what do you use for projecting precipitation, the fax charts? SST's?

[Duncan McAlister]

That happens quite a lot here with Leuchars, which is always reporting light rain showers during big snowfall events - I think they pick the mildest locations for some populated areas - perhaps something to do with cold weather payments for the elderly??

Wouldn't put it past them

As for lack of ppn, seems to be a common problem around here when the uppers get comfortably low enough for snow (about -8 or below as you say). No coincidence I suppose when ppn is usually associated with milder air.

[NorthernRab]

I wonder how low the minima will get, once all the early/mid-week snowfalls have finished...Is the record at risk?

Hard to tell exactly how cold it could get (it will get very cold around Thursday, Friday and Saturday it seems), but in our neck of the woods it looks like Inverness could beat its record low temperature.

Edited January 2, 2010 by NorthernRab

[JoeShmoe]

*prays*

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just awesome channel of cold on the forecast charts - this freeze keeps on developing.

The GFS run shows the cold from the continent entrenching itself over the UK until the end of next week !

Potential for lowest temp, potential for consistent 2 days of snow

Lomond - what do you use for projecting precipitation, the fax charts? SST's?

I check the fax charts, GFS, UKMO, NMM(if it's in a 36 hour timescale), ECM and, for convective events, a bit of experience and common sense! The charts for Tuesday/Wednesday have me a bit stumped, because while there is a more northerly element to them, the flow looks pretty much straight from the north sea for eastern areas, not to mention the chance of fronts/troughs etc., but I think we have a reasonable chance of seeing quite a bit of snow, while the easterly shown on the ECM looks a bit easier to call as days on end of easterly snow, with real similarities to 1987, I think.

[Methuselah]

Hard to tell exactly how cold it could get (it will get very cold around Thursday, Friday and Saturday it seems), but in our neck of the woods it looks like Inverness could beat its record low temperature.

What is Sneckie's record, Rab? I was in Glenurquhart in 1995 when it got down to -25C...Frozen bogs, no water (except from the burn via an iceaxe! ) no leckie, and all the cutlery frozen-together in the draw...This is getting scary!

[LomondSnowstorm]

*prays*

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rtavn1681.png

Wow, we now have cross model support for the easterly snow event of the century (potentially)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

ensembles seem to be buying it more as well

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m7.gif

[Richard Taylor]

As far as Abdn is concrnd, I think our min was -20C, in 1982?

StiII can't fathom out proprIy why Abdn city has not had as much snow out of this situation - so far? - as many thought wouId occur.

Aah, good oI' coastaI modification, compard to havoc rportd at many othr Iocations!!

[Northernlights]

Now sub zero at -2c just now with several recent powdery snow showers.My son skimmed out the farm road with the grain bucket this afternoon to let the car out.Here are some photos from today.

[lorenzo]

I check the fax charts, GFS, UKMO, NMM(if it's in a 36 hour timescale), ECM and, for convective events, a bit of experience and common sense! The charts for Tuesday/Wednesday have me a bit stumped, because while there is a more northerly element to them, the flow looks pretty much straight from the north sea for eastern areas, not to mention the chance of fronts/troughs etc., but I think we have a reasonable chance of seeing quite a bit of snow, while the easterly shown on the ECM looks a bit easier to call as days on end of easterly snow, with real similarities to 1987, I think.

Thank you for the reply - am trying to learn so much very quickly and the learners area doesn't always cover everything.

[NorthernRab]

What is Sneckie's record, Rab? I was in Glenurquhart in 1995 when it got down to -25C...Frozen bogs, no water (except from the burn via an iceaxe! ) no leckie, and all the cutlery frozen-together in the draw...This is getting scary!

Inverness Dalcross' record is -17'C, although if as a low lying coastal airport it recorded this I'd expect temperatures in Inverness itself to be a couple of degrees lower, perhaps even colder in the likes of Milton of Leyes, Slacbuie etc etc. GFS is currently suggesting that day time max temperatures would struggle above -10'C in Inverness, with temperatures dipping down towards the -20'C mark.

I think Aberdeen's record is -15'C and Glasgow's is -19.9'C.

[Sunny Leith]

Shuggee... only 2 hours ago ... a 6.5 mile drive from Leith, NE Edinburgh To Colinton/Craiglockhart, SW Edinburgh took me through almost 3 distinct levels of cold and snow in the city.

Heavy sleet and sleety snow all morning here in the city centre. Temps rose to 2/1ºC earlier. Now dropped back to 1/0ºC and the nw radar suggests that the uppers have dropped to -8ºC and now it is very heavy snow settling on all surfaces. I think I've enough evidence now to cement the suggestion that it only snows at sea level from a strong easterly here when uppers go down below -8ºC. This is the fourth time now in a the last few years and each time it's held true. That bloody north sea is a curse for its warmth, but a blessing to generate the snow!!

Heres how thats all has panned out in practice over 6.5 miles travelling from NE to SW Embra.

Leith: wet/icy/slushy pavements, some patchy snow in back gardens

Meadows/Brunstfield/Marchmont etc: - looks like the true snow level in the city, some grass showing but its basically got sound snow cover everywhere. Canal is frozen solid walking towards Craiglockhart

Craiglockart/Colinton village: 6.5 miles from here and a few hundred feet up in the south-west of of the city. Winter wonderland. Well you can see for yourself from the churchyard photo ! The snow there is in layers and todays is just the latest. Up to the tops of my wellies in the churchyard. Truly deep and crisp and even..

This is on course to be a winter that will match - and perhaps even better - some of the 70's and 80's classics

Edited January 2, 2010 by by-tor

[thejailender]

Been snowing here lightly pretty much all day, although at times we get heavier showers, but the sun inbetween the heavy showers, has pretty much put a stop to any further accumulation on the ground.

Currently got one of those heavier showers, and with the sun now having gone for the day, it has started to settle a bit.

I suppose the path will be needing cleared again then ! Although our lying snow is only about 4 inches (as there has been quite a bit of a thaw over th elast two days) the pile of snow down the length of my path must be over 20 inches deep - and frozen solid !

[Methuselah]

Inverness Dalcross' record is -17'C, although if as a low lying coastal airport it recorded this I'd expect temperatures in Inverness itself to be a couple of degrees lower, perhaps even colder in the likes of Milton of Leyes, Slacbuie etc etc. GFS is currently suggesting that day time max temperatures would struggle above -10'C in Inverness, with temperatures dipping down towards the -20'C mark.

I think Aberdeen's record is -15'C and Glasgow's is -19.9'C.

Thanks Rab...I love snow, I always have! But, I worry about the ramifications of recording such low temps...Maybe, I've picked-up a Scottish way of thinking??? This is really starting to worry me!

[lorenzo]

The wetterzentrale site has a great feature for animating charts over the winter months to compare this cold spell to previous...

Have not got time to search til later but this is a a great tool to review synoptic patterns over historic winters.

[Supercell]

Sounds incredible to me. Just a shame there hasn't been more media coverage. Hearing reports, on here, of some amazing snow depths, in excess of a foot, was a real surprise. How does this cold spell rank amongst the rest for those of you that have done extremely well so far ?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thank you for the reply - am trying to learn so much very quickly and the learners area doesn't always cover everything.

No problem. Your best bet to learning the workings of the weather models is to read the model discussion thread when it's fairly quiet and not a total rabble like the last few weeks!

[shuggee]

Shuggee... only 2 hours ago ... a 6.5 mile drive from Leith, NE Edinburgh To Colinton/Craiglockhart, SW Edinburgh took me through almost 3 distinct levels of cold and snow in the city. <snip>

Amazing eh. My pal in Bathgate says it's like Lapland. Hope it was a fun run out!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Sounds incredible to me. Just a shame there hasn't been more media coverage. Hearing reports, on here, of some amazing snow depths, in excess of a foot, was a real surprise. How does this cold spell rank amongst the rest for those of you that have done extremely well so far ?

Pretty much the best in my, albeit short, lifetime! Snow lying for the duration of the Christmas holidays, with the minimum depth around 2 inches, and 2 falls of around 5 inches along with snow falling on 13 of the last 16 days. Maximum temperature since the 16th is 3.8C, with the minimum -9.1C, though we've broken -8C three times in this spell so far. Had heavy snow showers for about 3 hours today, and the buses around here have stopped running, with about an inch or two of snow on the roads and more falling as I speak!

LS

[Cheggers]

Sounds incredible to me. Just a shame there hasn't been more media coverage. Hearing reports, on here, of some amazing snow depths, in excess of a foot, was a real surprise. How does this cold spell rank amongst the rest for those of you that have done extremely well so far ?

Not seen anything like it, I'm a saffer so used to this being BBQ weather. Had a low of -12 , don't think we have broken 3 degrees since December 15th and had lying snow since 17th December, CURRENT DEPTH IS ABOUT 11" of which 8" is just solid ice.

[davidbarnes25]

Glasgow has been pretty good for snow today, got plenty to go around! Clear skies over east glasgow now. Was in visiting my wife in the maternity hospital earlier, as she is pregnant (due in may), and left her snug and warm, as I looked out the window on the 6th floor, and could literally see a whole load of snow heading my way!!!! Got home and had a hairy moment parking the car, but a ok!! Am currently cloud watching to see if anything else crops up, but heating is on full blast, as its ruddy freezing in my house at present!!!!! Any ideas whether there is more snow for glasgow, or just going to be cold? Netweather forecast suggests there may be.