South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Mark Parsons]

Dogs, This is gonna be a close one.

Charts say it *shoulds* be snowing now, However my main consern is when it gets around here that low will form and pull it away from us.

I hoping the charts are still correct for it to form and increase PPN around here. However i feel the main threat may of moved.

I hope im realllly wrong.

Think you are worried about nothing, the front moving south has been slow moving with the associated ppn, my guess it will be another 1-2 hours before it reaches you proper what is happening has not changed.

[03jtrickey]

OMG this is the Midlands at the moment, near Bromsgrove

http://www.bbc.co.uk/herefordandworcester/webcams/camera.shtml?h=han&camid=07320&region=SO

Please make it here!!!

[rockhopper]

Hello my friend and welcome!

Yes it certainly looks as though you may be i the firing line judging by the latest modelling....keep us updated through the evening because anything that gets up to us glos folk will most likely go through wiltshire first!

Kind Regards

SK

Hi SK.

Thanks for the welcome, I will keep you all updated, got a terrible case of the man flu , so will be lurking all day, but at least I'm not working :clap:so I can watch the days weather develop!

[dogs32]

OMG this is the Midlands at the moment, near Bromsgrove

http://www.bbc.co.uk/herefordandworcester/webcams/camera.shtml?h=han&camid=07320&region=SO

Please make it here!!!

If you look on the radar we are going to get the fat end of that shower

[03jtrickey]

OK Latest NAE out now - not a lot of change, Cheltenham is borderline between 5 and 17mm. Hopefully we won't miss the main event

48hr Accumulation:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis06/ukuk/rsum/10010706_0506.gif

I am so nervous now about missing it!!!

[Lynxus]

Think you are worried about nothing, the front moving south has been slow moving with the associated ppn, my guess it will be another 1-2 hours before it reaches you proper what is happening has not changed.

Id love to belive that.

last night the charts showed lots for us, Now they show a lot less.

Even the snow depth chart ws showing us in the heavy ppn now, we are inbetween 2 ses of heavy ppn.

Lets hope im wrong.

Good luck all.

[Snowfan50]

Big flakes of pretty heavy snow in barnstaple right now. Looks great.

[kaz]

omg u should see this its a total white out massive big flakes

kaz x

right over me yayayaya

[dogs32]

white out in Brum..

some places in Worcester have 1-2" in a hr

Kaz take some pics

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32

[loopydreamer]

OMG this is the Midlands at the moment, near Bromsgrove

http://www.bbc.co.uk...07320&region=SO

Please make it here!!!

i hope it makes it 2 u peeps! im in redditch, a few miles away from bromsgrove and its chucking it down

[03jtrickey]

Lynxus - charts yesterday didn't show the ppt reaching us properly until around 3pm. Still, I'm really paranoid about missing it now, and the 6Z and NAE aren't exactly confidence inspiring - both give us about 6cm of snow in any case but I'm not sure whether to be optimistic about the main event.

Thanks loopydreamer

[snowking]

I think its going to take another hour or so for that snow to arrive here yet....I can see the snow-bearing clouds now to my NW, but so slow moving currently

And JT, yes NAE looking to take the heaviest of it just to our south on the accumulation charts, just waiting for the precip. discrimination charts with slightly better resolution.....i'd have thought we'd see at least 10cm from things tonight

Although GFS is more favourable

SK

Edited January 5, 2010 by snowking

[NickSomerset]

Signing in from Ilminster Somerset. Radar watching...and hoping for a big dumping of snow...BRING IT ON!

[03jtrickey]

OK Well, considering the the 12Z chart from the NAE is already out of date looking at the radar, I think we can discard it and just leave it to the radar alone, it's a nowcasting situation.

So we have our "big hit" zone somewhere in CS England/S Midlands, with more southern areas looking slightly more favourable at present.

Compare:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis06/ukuk/rsum/10010512_0506.gif

with radar, radar has ppt. further south already and we haven't even reached 12Z.

[PompeyFC]

i hope it makes it 2 u peeps! im in redditch, a few miles away from bromsgrove and its chucking it down

last time I saw propr snow was when I lived in Lodge Park, Redditch 20 years ago ! :o

[snowking]

Hopefully we might see something from Ian shortly, would be very interested to see the latest forecaster modified NAE given the snowfall depths chart we saw earlier

ETA for that band here in cheltenham i'd say 1100

Notice how the front is starting to interact with the bristol channel too...

SK

[aspire27]

Nice and sunny here now.

[kaz]

only got this one as pain in de bum tring to upload them but you get the idear

kaz x

[03jtrickey]

Looking at the SW peninsula, I would hardly call that "scattered wintry showers" as on the MetOffice forecast, it's more of an organised assault! :o

[NickSomerset]

Anyone got an opinion on what direction and where that big radar echo in south wales is heading? (obviously want it rightover the top of me (Somerset)..:o ? Will it track more southwards?

Ohh..lovely, the suns come out!

Edited January 5, 2010 by NickSomerset

[Cornflake Girl]

Hiya. Can anyone update me on the situation in Gloucester? I have family that needs to get back from there and roads here are already covered.

[03jtrickey]

Nothing yet in Gloucester, Cornflake Girl, but it's on it's way!

[dogs32]

only got this one as pain in de bum tring to upload them but you get the idear

kaz x

lovely Kaz...very nice,one for the photo album.

Im sure you will have plenty more.

People dont forgett IAN said allow 30-50miles leave way on model's..

Do correct me if Im wrong Ian..

edit...snow shower approaching

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Cornflake Girl]

Thanks! That is why he is ignoring his phone then. Gah!

[SteveB]

Seems to be taking an age to get here.