South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[caz100]

just looking at where people are and the south west is soooo big you have peeps from near wales and right over near oxford, and im right down the bottom of cornwall, which means everyones weather is gonna be so different....

[Ripeberry]

Trying to snow here, bits drifting about in the wind, which has picked up. At least the temp has gone

down to -1.0c. Even the local 'yoof' has been out, trying to pelt people's windows already.

Feel like its going to be a long day tomorrow with them being off school.

Should I stock up on snowballs now?

[Iceberg]

The centre is situated over southampton currently, however this is further east than the recently progged 18Z GFS or the 12Z NAE.

It should be moving SW but doesn't seem to be ready to do that atm.

The central pressure is rather elongated with Middle Wallop having a Southerly and Boscombe down a few miles away a northerly.

This would indicate a much tighter ark than the METO are thinking, the westward movement of the ark is associated with the SW movement of the low, if this doesn't happen as quickly as planned you will again have a much tighter ark.

This has still some surprises in it IMO, worth saying the the 18Z does give general precip for the south(inc dorset) for most of tomorrow.

The NAE thoughts will as always be interesting but maybe it might be a little behind the times.

[dogs32]

slight increase in t he light snow here

[weather_freak]

It's so annoying for me as it seems to be swirling around Swindon so far and only missing us by about 10 miles!

[Bristawl Si]

The centre is situated over southampton currently, however this is further east than the recently progged 18Z GFS or the 12Z NAE.

It should be moving SW but doesn't seem to be ready to do that atm.

The central pressure is rather elongated with Middle Wallop having a Southerly and Boscombe down a few miles away a northerly.

This would indicate a much tighter ark than the METO are thinking, the westward movement of the ark is associated with the SW movement of the low, if this doesn't happen as quickly as planned you will again have a much tighter ark.

This has still some surprises in it IMO, worth saying the the 18Z does give general precip for the south(inc dorset) for most of tomorrow.

The NAE thoughts will as always be interesting but maybe it might be a little behind the times.

So can i interpret that as a warning it may not affect us here in BTL and surrounding area as much as latest Beeb forecasts have been suggesting? Latest Beeb forecasts indicated the arc stretching from Oxford, thru' Cotswolds, Bristol, etc from Midnight to midday tom. Do you think this is now at risk?

[Rich_Clements]

Not wanting to annoy anyone but here is a shot of my back garden taken 30 minutes ago.

seems to have gone a little misty since.

[TimMB]

Annoy? You just did!

Looks great!

[dogs32]

J11-J12.....A FEW CRASHES TOWARDS LONDON...PILE UP

[dancing daisy]

It's been snowing quite heavily 10 minutes up the road from me.

I have an orangey sky, no stars, lots of cloud...but no bleedin' snow! grrrr

[TimMB]

Just flaking in Clevedon at the moment, such a tease!

Edit: Oooh picking up!

Edited January 5, 2010 by TimMB

[NickSomerset]

It's been snowing quite heavily 10 minutes up the road from me.

I have an orangey sky, no stars, lots of cloud...but no bleedin' snow! grrrr

Ditto, nada, nothing, ziltch, zero......NOWT!

Edited January 5, 2010 by NickSomerset

[SilverWolf]

Nice one Tribe3000, I'm on Slad Road, town end and there has been a little melt here. I'm opposite Locking Hill, seen some well interesting car episodes (if you know the road)! Interesting potential here me thinks. Is a bit weird being on the South West thread (no offence the SW is my favourite bit of England!)- we are so far from say Penzance! Still, not a Midlander either!

Edited January 5, 2010 by SilverWolf

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

TILT!!!!

[khodds]

TILT!!!!

IS IT? IS IT? PLEEAASSE TIILLTTT!!!!

[anvilhead]

I'll stick my neck out and say the NAE will play catch up now, with the heaviest precip staying east of where its forecasted for - not that areas will miss out, just less depth ..

My views are that the MetO quite possibly put too much weight on thier own model - that doesn't mean I disrespect certain members who post in here!

Hopefully I'll be wrong!

[MP-R]

Light snow here in the north end of Yatton. Knowing how close some of this stuff is, for all I know the other end could be completely dry. At least SOMETHING is falling! I was expecting the snow to have arrived at least an hour ago. The temperature continues to drop though which is promising. Now at -0.8C.

[dogs32]

lot more development over Wales on radar

PP EAST slightly trying to bend WEST

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Somerset Squall]

I reckon this still could go t!ts up, lol. I really hope it is not ANOTHER dissapointment.

In all seriousness, I think after midnight is the best chance for people in Somerset.

[NickSomerset]

IS IT? IS IT? PLEEAASSE TIILLTTT!!!!

And a TILT means what?

Edited January 5, 2010 by NickSomerset

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Popped out a min ago to have a look and was shocked! heavy snow and all previous foot prints and car tracks covered, about an inch now. Proper powder snow to, really dry not the usual wet slush we get!

A night of that would do me thanks!

[Lynxus]

I'll stick my neck out and say the NAE will play catch up now, with the heaviest precip staying east of where its forecasted for - not that areas will miss out, just less depth ..

My views are that the MetO quite possibly put too much weight on thier own model - that doesn't mean I disrespect certain members who post in here!

Hopefully I'll be wrong!

here is some VERY heavy PPN heading north /NW at the moment.

This is due to merge with the airmass coming down the country in a SW direction.

As it hit, i would expect the PPN to increase again.

By no means is the flash warning unwarranted.

[SilverWolf]

lot more development over Wales on radar

Is this the most likely band to come Glos way as the low moves?

[biggiemauls]

Does that mean any snow for Boscombe Down tonight? Getting completely lost in all of this haha.

[Duane S.]

The centre is situated over southampton currently, however this is further east than the recently progged 18Z GFS or the 12Z NAE.

It should be moving SW but doesn't seem to be ready to do that atm.

The central pressure is rather elongated with Middle Wallop having a Southerly and Boscombe down a few miles away a northerly.

This would indicate a much tighter ark than the METO are thinking, the westward movement of the ark is associated with the SW movement of the low, if this doesn't happen as quickly as planned you will again have a much tighter ark.

This has still some surprises in it IMO, worth saying the the 18Z does give general precip for the south(inc dorset) for most of tomorrow.

The NAE thoughts will as always be interesting but maybe it might be a little behind the times.

Good post as per usual Iceberg.

Yes our hope is the GFS which wants to take this low SW. I have to say I am not sure if I go along with that evolution as to me it is more likely to move away SSE but it has been reasonably bullish about it and quite frankly I'll happily cling on to ANY hope right now! Shame the large swaythe of ppn would have gone by then but I'm happy scavenging for scraps

I await the NAO 18z with renewed interest