South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Quicksilver]

I'm not seeing it getting *that* far West. Take a look at 18z GFS - I think those values are more respectable and reasonable - 6-8cm for Glos and surrounding areas.

[dave48]

All of the 1cm of snow we had earlier here in Exeter melted this afternoon, snow showers do look to be approaching for the start of the 'main event', very cold now so should settle well.

[littlemissy]

It snowed here an hour ago and has now stopped.Quie a covering in that time though.I think it was about 10-15 mins.Sky looks orange again.Very cold.-2.8c.

[Dorset_Weather]

The centre is situated over southampton currently, however this is further east than the recently progged 18Z GFS or the 12Z NAE.

It should be moving SW but doesn't seem to be ready to do that atm.

The central pressure is rather elongated with Middle Wallop having a Southerly and Boscombe down a few miles away a northerly.

This would indicate a much tighter ark than the METO are thinking, the westward movement of the ark is associated with the SW movement of the low, if this doesn't happen as quickly as planned you will again have a much tighter ark.

This has still some surprises in it IMO, worth saying the the 18Z does give general precip for the south(inc dorset) for most of tomorrow.

The NAE thoughts will as always be interesting but maybe it might be a little behind the times.

Cheers Iceberg, been waiting for your input.

Been studying the NW radar all night since our massive downgrade and I agree,

looks like if this arcs as much as it looks like it might we may have a slight chance of all that ppn coming right down on top of us and that ppn is increasing quite a lot.

[Rich_Clements]

Nice one Tribe3000, I'm on Slad Road, town end and there has been a little melt here. I'm opposite Locking Hill, seen some well interesting car episodes (if you know the road)! Interesting potential here me thinks. Is a bit weird being on the South West thread (no offence the SW is my favourite bit of England!)- we are so far from say Penzance! Still, not a Midlander either!

Yeah you're right, Aspire alludes to it and he is right we are not SW really but in a grey area between SW and midlands.

I have left my car in town tonight and walked up the hill I live at the top of Bisely road (the posh part, not!) spotted two buses parked up it was amazing the amount of vehicles just left.

[SilverWolf]

Yeah you're right, Aspire alludes to it and he is right we are not SW really but in a grey area between SW and midlands.

I have left my car in town tonight and walked up the hill I live at the top of Bisely road (the posh part, not!) spotted two buses parked up it was amazing the amount of vehicles just left.

Hopefully a very white area tomorrow, rather than grey!

[Mark]

I think a little bit of calm should be exercised on here!

Just because somebody 50 (or 5) miles away is getting snow doesn't mean you will... yet...

At best get the Netweather radar, or at worst just watch the MetOffice radar anim, and watch the movement of the ppn. It's on it's way for many of us.

I haven't seen a flake since 3rd Feb 09 so I'm as excited about what tonight could give as anyone.

Sorry if that all sounded a bit dictatorial, but I'm a bit tense

[Paul T]

just looking at where people are and the south west is soooo big you have peeps from near wales and right over near oxford, and im right down the bottom of cornwall, which means everyones weather is gonna be so different....

DEVON AND CORNWALL POSTERS!!

If your temps can stay down (In Cornwall) I believe that Cornwall and Devon will do the best out of this in the whole of the south west. why....?

The precipitation that will take a few more hours to move over the other counties (glous/somerset et al.) will largely weaken to moderate/light.

While in Cornwall and Devon, the ppn set to come down from wales, over the bristol channel(ish) area will be invigorated, much like it was earlier today, and will give us a good chance at some moderate/occ heavy bursts.

This is backed up by gfs 18z:

3AM HERE

6AM HERE

9AM HERE

I know which county/counties in the SW i would rather be tonight!

Paul

Edited January 5, 2010 by Paul T

[dogs32]

Is this the most likely band to come Glos way as the low moves?

Its a hard one to call and VERY decieving to say the least.

Radio just said up to a foot possible...

slight down grade from Richard Angwin.BUT still 5,10,15 cm or one foot

anyway...The radar to me looks like The East Precip will SLOWLY crash or merge with The Welsh Precip which is now 3 times larger than earlier.....Thats my assumption on the events after midnight

edit because at present we are in the eye

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Jayfromcardiff]

Is this the most likely band to come Glos way as the low moves?

Snowing in Cardiff!

[NickSomerset]

I think a little bit of calm should be exercised on here!

Just because somebody 50 (or 5) miles away is getting snow doesn't mean you will... yet...

At best get the Netweather radar, or at worst just watch the MetOffice radar anim, and watch the movement of the ppn. It's on it's way for many of us.

I haven't seen a flake since 3rd Feb 09 so I'm as excited about what tonight could give as anyone.

Sorry if that all sounded a bit dictatorial, but I'm a bit tense

Your tense.... i think i may explode!!!!

[anvilhead]

here is some VERY heavy PPN heading north /NW at the moment.

This is due to merge with the airmass coming down the country in a SW direction.

As it hit, i would expect the PPN to increase again.

By no means is the flash warning unwarranted.

I wont argue the science with you Lynxus - I can see you like to forecast too and I hope I'm wrong!!. The flash warnings are never unwarranted if there's more than a remote chance of things happening - lives can be lost by forecasters wanting to be too confident before issuing a warning.

[winger]

I don't think the low is as far east as suggested above. Just look at the radar circulation.....Southampton is in the middle of it. Pressure still dropping here, so would put the centre further west.

[SilverWolf]

Its a hard one to call and VERY decieving to say the least.

Radio just said up to a foot possible...

slight down grade from Richard Angwin.BUT still 5,10,15 cm or one foot

anyway...The radar to me looks like The East Precip will SLOWLY crash or merge with The Welsh Precip which is now 3 times larger than earlier.....Thats my assumption on the events after midnight

Thanks - sems to me the Wales precip is much greater than BBC forecasts were saying only 4 hours ago. Hope this bodes well..

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Snowing in Cardiff!

I believe that's in Wales

[dogs32]

Snowing in Cardiff!

I think you have a fair bit to come yet Jay

[Quicksilver]

Ok guys I think us lot in Glos. county and surrounding aread shouldn't be expecting more than 5cm now. As it is tilting it is losing intensity quite a bit. Plus it is further East which begs the question of whether it will even reach here...

[dogs32]

Thanks - sems to me the Wales precip is much greater than BBC forecasts were saying only 4 hours ago. Hope this bodes well..

One good thing is Richard did say further snow bands will develop across this area

[Duane S.]

I think a little bit of calm should be exercised on here!

Just because somebody 50 (or 5) miles away is getting snow doesn't mean you will... yet...

At best get the Netweather radar, or at worst just watch the MetOffice radar anim, and watch the movement of the ppn. It's on it's way for many of us.

I haven't seen a flake since 3rd Feb 09 so I'm as excited about what tonight could give as anyone.

Sorry if that all sounded a bit dictatorial, but I'm a bit tense

Good post and it's pretty uncharacteristic of me to be so negative but seeing the Dorset snow sheild yet again in its full glory today was a bit hard after I had been convinced the sweet spot for landhit from the channel snow would be Dorset. But this is far from over as you quite rightly say.

What it also highlights is just how incredibly difficult it is to forecast this sort of thing, it really is just a nowcast and fingers crossed situation!

[Lynxus]

Moving on..

18z NAE is rolling nicely.

Showing it north of us ( As I expected )

[SilverWolf]

Snowing in Cardiff!

Congrats!! I'll raise a glass (if you send it our way!).

[03jtrickey]

LATEST NAE:

TOTAL ACCUMULATION

Little change - totals perhaps toned down a bit to more achievable amount, however - 18/20cm up for grabs around here.

Lynxus - I only found this out today - the NAE precip accum. charts are out way before the other charts.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

DEVON AND CORNWALL POSTERS!!

If your temps can stay down (In Cornwall) I believe that Cornwall and Devon will do the best out of this in the whole of the south west. why....?

The precipitation that will take a few more hours to move over the other counties (glous/somerset et al.) will largely weaken to moderate/light.

While in Cornwall and Devon, the ppn set to come down from wales, over the bristol channel(ish) area will be invigorated, much like it was earlier today, and will give us a good chance at some moderate/occ heavy bursts.

This is backed up by gfs 18z:

3AM HERE

6AM HERE

9AM HERE

I know which county/counties in the SW i would rather be tonight!

Paul

I'll take that!

No work tomorrow me thinks... road is pretty much impassable at the best of times but with the existing snow and more to come I think it'l be a work from home day!

[TimMB]

Jesus this is tense!

[dogs32]

Moving on..

18z NAE is rolling nicely.

Showing it north of us ( As I expected )

yes thats spot on what I reckon or was thinking....and this will SLOWLY mOVE SOUTH sloooowly

its far from over...I think myself

EDIT

EXCELLENT James..

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32