Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 16

[Polar Gael]

Metoffice defending itself

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8443687.stm

-11 when I left home at 8:30 this morning :lol:

Ouch! The Met Office Heid Honcho gets a bit of a doing from Old Brillo there.

Still, if this winter's forecast can in any way, shape or form, be claimed as a success, I would hate to see the Met Office's definition of failure!

They should really give up on the long range forecasting (or at least publicising it the way they do) until it's more accurate.

Edited January 7, 2010 by Polar Gael

[bingobob777]

Hi bingobob,

i drive for scotrail on the old SPT routes across the greater glasgow area.. things are certainly groaning out there, ive never seen so many staff just sitting around with nowhere to go.

Should see the icicles in some of the tunnels!

Craig.

LOL, that was a new one on me as well, icicle patrols being carried out in all electrified tunnels.

[sandstorm2]

Ouch! The Met Office Heid Honcho gets a bit of a doing from Old Brillo there.

Still, if this winter's forecast can in any way, shape or form, be claimed as a success, I would hate to see the Met Office's definition of failure!

They should really give up on the long range forecasting (or at least publicising it the way they do) until it's more accurate.

Don't know how how managed to stay so calm under such hostile questioning, I thought the interviewer was a bit over the top.

SS2

[snowy owl]

Well council here of scraping the roads to try and remove some ice/snow! looks like they are finally trying to get us all moving again!!

Pavements are a nightmare and potholes are huge!! raods are cracking here too but i think its partly down to poor road resurfacing as well - using the cheapest contractor isn't always giving the best quality !

[igloo]

Ouch! The Met Office Heid Honcho gets a bit of a doing from Old Brillo there.

Still, if this winter's forecast can in any way, shape or form, be claimed as a success, I would hate to see the Met Office's definition of failure!

They should really give up on the long range forecasting (or at least publicising it the way they do) until it's more accurate.

the problem is not just with the Met office the thing is its very easy to make a mild winter forecast for the simple reason the past 20-25 years the winters have been generally mild because of the global warming. so more often than not there right with a mild winter. last years winter was the same another mild winter forecast which it was not .i do agree with you about giving up on long range forecasts it simple doesnt allways work with statistics alone

[Guest]

Ouch! The Met Office Heid Honcho gets a bit of a doing from Old Brillo there.

Still, if this winter's forecast can in any way, shape or form, be claimed as a success, I would hate to see the Met Office's definition of failure!

They should really give up on the long range forecasting (or at least publicising it the way they do) until it's more accurate.

The burning issue with the Met-O forecast is this: if local authorities based the size of their grit stockpiles on the back of the warm winter forecast, then is the Met-O now responsible for the alleged shortage of grit which the UK faces??

Or should the Met-O's long range forecasts just be taken with a pinch of salt?

Ouch, that was bad.

[LadyPakal]

I've noticed some upheaval on the pavements - frost heave from underneath pushing them up like an alien is trying to burst out from underground...

The burning issue with the Met-O forecast is this: if local authorities based the size of their grit stockpiles on the back of the warm winter forecast, then is the Met-O now responsible for the alleged shortage of grit which the UK faces??

Or should the Met-O's long range forecasts just be taken with a pinch of salt?

Ouch, that was bad.

OK, you get a time out on the naughty step for that one....

[sunny starry skies]

That's a great example of bad journalism right there. I actually felt sorry for the Met Office bloke as he was not allowed to give a straight answer. There's a whole world of difference between each of short-term, seasonal and climatic forecasting. He was rightly beaten up over the seasonal forecasts though! I would, however, be very interested to know whether the Met's seasonal forecast does influence grit stockpiling, or whether that is merely based on the experience of past winters? If it's based on the seasonal forecast then there's a significant issue there...

Back to Scottish weather, and enjoying a frosty sunny day in Edinburgh today, not expecting any more snow soon tbh, even from that feature out east. Am more intersted in watching the temperature readings over the next few nights. After some impressive readings down south last night, where English stations finally approached the chillier Highland ones, it's intriguing to watch the likes of Loch Glascarnoch drop to below -10C during this morning. One of the key things is clear skies over these stations - when the cloud clears away the tempeature can fall rapidly. I remember that as a young astronomer during the 1995-1996 winter freezing my nuts off in superb observing conditions in Perthshire (somewhere in the region of -25C ). When it clouded over it would rise to a balmy -10!

sss

[Guest]

That's a great example of bad journalism right there. I actually felt sorry for the Met Office bloke as he was not allowed to give a straight answer. There's a whole world of difference between each of short-term, seasonal and climatic forecasting. He was rightly beaten up over the seasonal forecasts though! I would, however, be very interested to know whether the Met's seasonal forecast does influence grit stockpiling, or whether that is merely based on the experience of past winters? If it's based on the seasonal forecast then there's a significant issue there...

Part way down in this article the spokesman for East Renfrewshire council is quoted as saying that they based their budget for salt on the warm winter forecast (one assumes from the Met-O) and have now overspent on that budget:

http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2797766/Ministers-warn-it-is-our-worst-winter-since-1963.html

It is from the Sun, and the rest of the article is complete tripe though!!!

Edit: Looking around other news stories it seems the Met-O are taking a thumping due to councils using the warm winter forecast and therefore not being prepared.

Edited January 7, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[JoeShmoe]

Bit OT but anyone seen this

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/edinburgh/Rare-sea-tornadoes-pictured-on.5962644.jp

[Methuselah]

If only they'd used Joe B's winter forecasts over the past 10 years - there'd be enough unused grit around to build a Scottish Himalaya???

[Guest]

If only they'd used Joe B's winter forecasts over the past 10 years - there'd be enough unused grit around to build a Scottish Himalaya???

I remember years ago that the then Strathclyde Regional Council used to store grit in all sorts of places in Glasgow, including underneath the motorway at Kinning Park. That pile of grit alone must have been several thousand tonnes as it filled the void under the flyover which at that point carries not only the motorway but also the secondary motorways. I suppose these days they can't just leave the stuff lying about it has to be put in one of those nut shaped storage places. I blame health and safety

[Snowlover2]

Joe thats what i was talking about few pages back, think it was missed though. Amazing eh!

[Methuselah]

I remember years ago that the then Strathclyde Regional Council used to store grit in all sorts of places in Glasgow, including underneath the motorway at Kinning Park. That pile of grit alone must have been several thousand tonnes as it filled the void under the flyover which at that point carries not only the motorway but also the secondary motorways. I suppose these days they can't just leave the stuff lying about it has to be put in one of those nut shaped storage places. I blame health and safety

Some bright sparks would probably nick it!

[LadyPakal]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/8445399.stm

One of the bad parts of large amounts of snow...

Some nice pics here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8445899.stm

Edited January 7, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Guest]

Some bright sparks would probably nick it!

Well it lay there in varying quantities every year in Glasgow in the 80s and didn't get nicked. So if it wasn't nicked then, it wouldn't get nicked now. It may have had a big fence round it though, I can't remember now.

[Methuselah]

Well it lay there in varying quantities every year in Glasgow in the 80s and didn't get nicked. So if it wasn't nicked then, it wouldn't get nicked now. It may have had a big fence round it though, I can't remember now.

That reminds me of my trip to see Crocodile Dundee in MK (12 Jan 1987). On the way there, there was a broken-down car - on the way back there was an empty shell: no doors, wheels, tyres - nothing! It was about -16C with a NE gale that night!!

I hope you didn't think I was making any kind of negative comment re: Glasgow??? Far from it! My ex-wife lost her purse on a train in Glasgow, only to have a porter give it back to her on different train...The person who handed it in was a hero!!!

[Guest]

That reminds me of my trip to see Crocodile Dundee in MK (12 Jan 1987). On the way there, there was a broken-down car - on the way back there was an empty shell: no doors, wheels, tyres - nothing! It was about -16C with a NE gale that night!!

I hope you didn't think I was making any kind of negative comment re: Glasgow??? Far from it! My ex-wife lost her purse on a train in Glasgow, only to have a porter give it back to her on different train...The person who handed it it was a hero!!!

No I didn't think you were making a negative comment about Glasgow (didn't notice a single thing until you said!), I love the city but it has huge contrasts of really good sides and really bad sides.

Rubbish place for snow though, until you get to the outskirts.

[GraemeB]

...The person who handed it it was a hero!!!

And from Edinburgh

(only joking )

[Methuselah]

No I didn't think you were making a negative comment about Glasgow (didn't notice a single thing until you said!), I love the city but it has huge contrasts of really good sides and really bad sides.

Rubbish place for snow though, until you get to the outskirts.

'Cept for this year?? In fact, I could do with a mild spell...Only for a few days, mind you!

[JRMcLeod]

the problem is not just with the Met office the thing is its very easy to make a mild winter forecast for the simple reason the past 20-25 years the winters have been generally mild because of the global warming. so more often than not there right with a mild winter. last years winter was the same another mild winter forecast which it was not .i do agree with you about giving up on long range forecasts it simple doesnt allways work with statistics alone

Because of Global Warming?

[blitzen]

Have now got the weather that I really don't like much. I find this type so boring! We have zero SW wind, DP-6.4c and temp of -3.1c with no imminent prospects of things changing. Oh well, perhaps the cold becoming embedded may help things later in the outlook.

[AlexM94]

im surprised but we still have a covering of snow here been here for a few days cold last night was down to below -5C has not warmed up yet much sitting at about -2C there are fields behind my house they don't have much snow laying but there is such a lovely frost on them

there is a shower trying to move in from the east just now it been trying for a while but wind is an westerly just now

[Methuselah]

Have now got the weather that I really don't like much. I find this type so boring! We have zero SW wind, DP-6.4c and temp of -3.1c with no imminent prospects of things changing. Oh well, perhaps the cold becoming embedded may help things later in the outlook.

Don't worry, B. There might even be some freezing drizzle on the way??

[Guest]

'Cept for this year?? In fact, I could do with a mild spell...Only for a few days, mind you!

Still rubbish for snow in Glasgow, many places in Glasgow City have barely got a cover of snow. Surrounding area has done a lot better though. Which explains why Glasgow is where it is really, in every respect the weather is much better there than almost everywhere else in the west of Scotland. Drier, warmer and sunnier!!