South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Wilxy]

Ok now im stupidly confused at whats happened.

[BARRY]

The snow in the channel is heading this way at a rate of knots, Maybe halfhour before it gets here on the NW rader

[dogs32]

The snow in the channel is heading this way at a rate of knots, Maybe halfhour before it gets here on the NW rader

thats fast developing must be the warm sea

[snow what snow]

The snow in the channel is heading this way at a rate of knots, Maybe halfhour before it gets here on the NW rader

will it hit tavistock or go around it as usual?

[weather_freak]

I too am confused. What's happening???

Are we getting light snow tonight and tomorrow or not?

[Duane S.]

Looks like I might see even more down here in Exeter then, hardly anything has melted around my street, still a good covering here. Maybe more later.

Even the massive 1cm that fell here the other day still lies virtually intact in my garden, the sun having little or no effect. I can only imagine what it must be like in other parts of the country which have had real snow.

I've got my fingers crossed for a few showers later on. Godda have hope...

[aspire27]

I just saw bbc and it looked crap for bristol

Your right. F all.

Thought it was all going north.

[kaz]

thats fast developing must be the warm sea

um its not coming towards us ...

kaz

[biggiemauls]

SNOW!! very very very veryyyyyy light snow falling here!

[dogs32]

um its not coming towards us ...

kaz

Hi Kaz,

Its slowly moving or nudging Westward's.

But not sure when or how much it will be IF it manages to get this far.

I suspect it will but doubt it will be a great deal.

Also probably a lot later..

good look kaz

[wallopweather]

I too am confused. What's happening???

Are we getting light snow tonight and tomorrow or not?

You're confused, I don't know if we have snow coming for us or not or if I should be in the SW Forum or the South Central Forum or the South East Forum, guess I'll just go where the snow goes

[Mark]

Nowcasting is the new forecasting, I tell ya

[biggiemauls]

You're confused, I don't know if we have snow coming for us or not or if I should be in the SW Forum or the South Central Forum or the South East Forum, guess I'll just go where the snow goes

Middle Wallop eh, not too far away from me. Pretty sure you are going to get at least a lil bit of snow tonight.

Edited January 9, 2010 by biggiemauls

[wallopweather]

Nowcasting is the new forecasting, I tell ya

Totally agree

[kaz]

You're confused, I don't know if we have snow coming for us or not or if I should be in the SW Forum or the South Central Forum or the South East Forum, guess I'll just go where the snow goes

stay in this one its the best..

but if you want something more relevant to your weather go to SE or SC forum's...

it even gets confusing for us because anything north of Bristol (and thats pushing it) has no baring on the SW weather at all.. we are a peninsular so very different weather here ... Stay and have fun though

kaz x

PS thanks Dogs for that, if you look at NW radar i can just see it or maybe its wishful thinking.

[dancing daisy]

Off to the pub. This is all way too annoying so instead of radar watching I will sit by the window.

Have fun y'all. I will try not to post any drunken rants about the weather later on.

[wallopweather]

cheers Kaz, much preferred the old set up of one manic forum instead of all these split forums, currently switching between two

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Whats all this talk of upgrades... didn't see that one happening.

Typical, start watching some trully awful movie (not my choice) and miss a great forecast apparently. That'll teach me!

Am I having monday off work then?

[NickSomerset]

Ok, here's Tuesdays battle of the fronts (battle of the Atlantic)..... any thoughts anyone?

Edited January 9, 2010 by NickSomerset

[Ian Fergusson]

I think the best idea is for people not to follow the graphics like the holy grail as pointed out earlier

As I said then, treat them just like the old graphics with the symbols. Just because it does/doesnt show snow over one particular area doesnt mean its not coming

I will guarentee that many of us will see snow later tonight and tomorrow - just, as has been said all along, rather light in nature

SK

Correct (in every sense).

Our Weatherscape system essentially ingests the NAE (or GM) runs automatically and the necessary modifications / regional detail to what you see are then added by the Duty Forecaster at BBC Weather Centre. Some further tweaks - usually of a short-range/nowcast variety - can be added by those of us working regionally. So, much as the 4km modelling by NAE can't be wholly accurate with where a snow shower will fall, neither can our graphics, but they offer pretty much the same high-resolution prognosis offered by the models.

Obviously, in the days of using coarse symbols pasted over an entire regions (as ITV still use), it was easier to avoid local forecast errors being magnified. But we run with NAE and our more dynamic graphics; and standing in front of xxx thousand viewers we need to do so with at least some degree of confidence in our friends at Exeter!

And indeed I do have great confidence. They're good scientists.

Funnily enough, some S Glos bloke on another weather forum - according to a UKMO colleague of mine who cited some forum postings to me today - routinely accuses me of being a 'serial snow ramper', which did make me chuckle after my moans on this forum about people hyping bad winter weather (presumably this chap is not a scientist who works according to the scientific consensus, which I always do, be it in weather or my ichthyological specialism.... after all, there's sufficient 'ramping' in the tabloids and that's relevant both for weather and sharks!!).

So, sans ramping, let me offer the consensual ( = at least at UKMO) view from expert scientists far more qualified than me (and probably that bloke on another forum).

Expectation is for light snow flurries to gradually give way to more prolonged light to perhaps moderate snow outbreaks tonight (refer to developing radar story); then to spread more widely into tomorrow across much of our region, albeit the NAE remains reluctant to talk-up the PPN rates into anything exceptional. However.......(big however, this one).....

.....the core uncertainty is the final accumulations, because powder snow will fall, blowing readily in the stiff NE wind and drifting. And even where it's not, the measured 'real world' accumulations could easily exceed whatever the NAE wishes to propose.

Thus, between now and 12Z Monday, the NAE offers anywhere from 1 to 3cm snowfall typically across much of the westcountry (spot 4cm Dartmoor; Quantocks; southern Cotswolds; 6cm north Cotswolds). Could it prove double this? Sure. But the local detail will be elusive..... thus it's radar watch time again (albeit that offers only a hint of areal distribution; bear in mind how snowfall rates on radar are often unreliable due to either under-representative signal [commonly] or the opposite effect in marginal set-ups [brightbanding from snow melting as it falls]).

Hope this helps -

Best

Ian

[dogs32]

quote from

John Holme's

from the Model Forum thread

His thought's

what you say about 'not as cold Mushy' is essentially correct-there is no way the intense cold of the past 4-5 days could be carried on even without the probable effect of the low to the SW.

However, its very very complex-and a situation not seen for many years, not this side of the millennium for sure.

When was the last time that ALL parts of the UK had 5 days cold or very cold air sat over it. That is just for the more SW'ern areas-move North and east and, especially for parts of central Scotland and the higher areas of England that 5 days is almost 5 weeks!

Mild Atlantic air will of course win-but whether its this week or next month is the crunch. A forecasters nightmare as I keep repeating.

At the moment I would think that away from the SW and some western coastal areas the following 2-3 days MIGHT see an almost forgotten classic frontal snow belt, with probable blizzards over some of the higher areas, even in the south. Watch the radar over Europe, see how heavy the precip is, watch the 925mb temperatures as much as the 850mb ones. The higher end of the atmosphere, 700mb upwards is not of any direct concern although obviously it is part of the overall attempt by the milder Atlantic air to push the frigid air east and north.

A week of fascination to weather watchers.

Edited January 9, 2010 by dogs32

[yipikiaye]

Ok, here's Tuesdays battle of the fronts (battle of the Atlantic)..... any thoughts anyone?

:lol:

Edited January 9, 2010 by yipikiaye

[Ian Fergusson]

quote from

John Holme's

from the Model Forum thread

His thought's

what you say about 'not as cold Mushy' is essentially correct-there is no way the intense cold of the past 4-5 days could be carried on even without the probable effect of the low to the SW.

However, its very very complex-and a situation not seen for many years, not this side of the millennium for sure.

When was the last time that ALL parts of the UK had 5 days cold or very cold air sat over it. That is just for the more SW'ern areas-move North and east and, especially for parts of central Scotland and the higher areas of England that 5 days is almost 5 weeks!

Mild Atlantic air will of course win-but whether its this week or next month is the crunch. A forecasters nightmare as I keep repeating.

At the moment I would think that away from the SW and some western coastal areas the following 2-3 days MIGHT see an almost forgotten classic frontal snow belt, with probable blizzards over some of the higher areas, even in the south. Watch the radar over Europe, see how heavy the precip is, watch the 925mb temperatures as much as the 850mb ones. The higher end of the atmosphere, 700mb upwards is not of any direct concern although obviously it is part of the overall attempt by the milder Atlantic air to push the frigid air east and north.

A week of fascination to weather watchers.

Everything John writes is worthy of note and here's another post no different. Another balanced and intuitive piece from a good scientist. Thanks for copying this here.

[dogs32]

thanks for you thought's Ian.

I would say your far from a ramper to be honest.

Complex weather that we are all trying to analyze today.

we found out where you vanished to..BBC Spotlight tonight..lol

Edited January 9, 2010 by dogs32

[BARRY]

Correct (in every sense).

Our Weatherscape system essentially ingests the NAE (or GM) runs automatically and the necessary modifications / regional detail to what you see are then added by the Duty Forecaster at BBC Weather Centre. Some further tweaks - usually of a short-range/nowcast variety - can be added by those of us working regionally. So, much as the 4km modelling by NAE can't be wholly accurate with where a snow shower will fall, neither can our graphics, but they offer pretty much the same high-resolution prognosis offered by the models.

Obviously, in the days of using coarse symbols pasted over an entire regions (as ITV still use), it was easier to avoid local forecast errors being magnified. But we run with NAE and our more dynamic graphics; and standing in front of xxx thousand viewers we need to do so with at least some degree of confidence in our friends at Exeter!

And indeed I do have great confidence. They're good scientists.

Funnily enough, some S Glos bloke on another weather forum - according to a UKMO colleague of mine who cited some forum postings to me today - routinely accuses me of being a 'serial snow ramper', which did make me chuckle after my moans on this forum about people hyping bad winter weather (presumably this chap is not a scientist who works according to the scientific consensus, which I always do, be it in weather or my ichthyological specialism.... after all, there's sufficient 'ramping' in the tabloids and that's relevant both for weather and sharks!!).

So, sans ramping, let me offer the consensual ( = at least at UKMO) view from expert scientists far more qualified than me (and probably that bloke on another forum).

Expectation is for light snow flurries to gradually give way to more prolonged light to perhaps moderate snow outbreaks tonight (refer to developing radar story); then to spread more widely into tomorrow across much of our region, albeit the NAE remains reluctant to talk-up the PPN rates into anything exceptional. However.......(big however, this one).....

.....the core uncertainty is the final accumulations, because powder snow will fall, blowing readily in the stiff NE wind and drifting. And even where it's not, the measured 'real world' accumulations could easily exceed whatever the NAE wishes to propose.

Thus, between now and 12Z Monday, the NAE offers anywhere from 1 to 3cm snowfall typically across much of the westcountry (spot 4cm Dartmoor; Quantocks; southern Cotswolds; 6cm north Cotswolds). Could it prove double this? Sure. But the local detail will be elusive..... thus it's radar watch time again (albeit that offers only a hint of areal distribution; bear in mind how snowfall rates on radar are often unreliable due to either under-representative signal [commonly] or the opposite effect in marginal set-ups [brightbanding from snow melting as it falls]).

Hope this helps -

Best

Ian

thanks for that ian, the wind has really picked up from the east now and cold it is,Waiting for thelight snow to hit next