South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[theprophecyman]

Thanks again for your input Ian, always enjoy reading your comments/views.

Quick question, (sorry been away most of the day etc) the snow for sw over for tomorrow, is that coming from the East, or South?

Thanks again

Andy

[wallopweather]

Ok, here's Tuesdays battle of the fronts (battle of the Atlantic)..... any thoughts anyone?

The following probably goes a long way in answering the above:

quote from

John Holme's

from the Model Forum thread

His thought's

what you say about 'not as cold Mushy' is essentially correct-there is no way the intense cold of the past 4-5 days could be carried on even without the probable effect of the low to the SW.

However, its very very complex-and a situation not seen for many years, not this side of the millennium for sure.

When was the last time that ALL parts of the UK had 5 days cold or very cold air sat over it. That is just for the more SW'ern areas-move North and east and, especially for parts of central Scotland and the higher areas of England that 5 days is almost 5 weeks!

Mild Atlantic air will of course win-but whether its this week or next month is the crunch. A forecasters nightmare as I keep repeating.

At the moment I would think that away from the SW and some western coastal areas the following 2-3 days MIGHT see an almost forgotten classic frontal snow belt, with probable blizzards over some of the higher areas, even in the south. Watch the radar over Europe, see how heavy the precip is, watch the 925mb temperatures as much as the 850mb ones. The higher end of the atmosphere, 700mb upwards is not of any direct concern although obviously it is part of the overall attempt by the milder Atlantic air to push the frigid air east and north.

A week of fascination to weather watchers.

[yipikiaye]

Ello Ian Just caught the end of your forcast on the tv.What time approx can we expect to see something tonight.I m hoping for something a bit heavier than forecast.No doubt this light stuff wont amount to very much at all really.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Ian, thanks again for your updates. I shall go and make a 4cm hole and an 8cm hole and report back on Monday as to which got filled

Only kidding.

Its got rather cloudy out (in that I can't see the usual star display tonight) so could be interesting from now on.

Getting a tad worried re the lack of oil deliveries especially if the snow stays, so from that perspective would rather welcome a thaw by the weekend! Can't have the heating on all day as it is. Luckily, plenty of logs and coal, as well as other heaters, but the poor Aga!

[SilverWolf]

Ian you have my dream job from when I was 14. Shame I was unable to pay attention in Physics etc. And to be honest in my thirties I've realised I ain't clever enough anyway!! Oh well, the magic alone will sufice for me. Thank you so much for your input - I love your subtle humour too.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Eh? No snow on Sunday, but more on Monday according to Dan Corbett?

Tuesday though, wowzers! Anywhere east of Plymouth!

[wallopweather]

steak and chips ready, b bk ltr, hopefully a bit more to see on the radar for our area by then

[Ian Fergusson]

Eh? No snow on Sunday, but more on Monday according to Dan Corbett?

Tuesday though, wowzers! Anywhere east of Plymouth!

Oh Matt, Ok, you've convinced me to...... put the latest NAE frames here in a jiffy.

Give me a few mins.

Dear oh Dear....

[NickSomerset]

steak and chips ready, b bk ltr, hopefully a bit more to see on the radar for our area by then

I'll watch your steak if you wanna keep watching the radar...mmmmmmm steak.

Edited January 9, 2010 by NickSomerset

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Oh Matt, Ok, you've convinced me to...... put the latest NAE frames here in a jiffy.

Give me a few mins.

Dear oh Dear....

What can I say, with no radar I rely on the forecasts

[Bristawl Si]

Eh? No snow on Sunday, but more on Monday according to Dan Corbett?

Tuesday though, wowzers! Anywhere east of Plymouth!

Saw that just now. Looks pants for tonite and tomorrow. Bit of a change from an hour ago and earlier this morn. In fact even the S.E. didn't look like getting so much on this latest forecast compared to earlier's, but Ian's update seems to offer a little more for us!

Monday/Tuesday looks better. Tuesday could be esp. severe for south somerset, north devon me thinks.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I'll watch your steak if you wanna keep watching the radar...mmmmmmm steak.

mmmm

Although I'm rustling up a mean coq au vin tonight... well its being rustled now.

[NickSomerset]

mmmm

Although I'm rustling up a mean coq au vin tonight... well its being rustled now.

Waiting for the Indian to be delivered.... (and no he's not going to do a snow dance for me..), Madras, Rice and Nana + a Teka Masala...

[dancing daisy]

What can I say, with no radar I rely on the forecasts

Poor man has been at work for hours! lol

Right now I have a forecast to show off with it is definately pub '0 clock.

[NickSomerset]

18.30 Radar Image:

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Waiting for the Indian to be delivered.... (and no he's not going to do a snow dance for me..), Madras, Rice and Nana + a Teka Masala...

Not even if you ask nicely?

Just check outside, its not snowing, temp is down to -5.1C though!

Poor man has been at work for hours! lol

Right now I have a forecast to show off with it is definately pub '0 clock.

PIMMs o'clock! Defo!

[Ian Fergusson]

Oh Matt, Ok, you've convinced me to...... put the latest NAE frames here in a jiffy.

Give me a few mins.

Dear oh Dear....

Probably more useful is this composite PPN / WBFL prognosis from NAE. Either way, essentially light snow expected for our districts (yes, I'm ramping, RAMPING again, naughty me) but pls do bear in mind the caveats re powder snow accumulation as expressed in my earlier post. There will be a LOT of variation locally, I am sure.

Cheers

Ian

[butler_son]

mmmm

Although I'm rustling up a mean coq au vin tonight... well its being rustled now.

Coq au vin? You tease! Are you using actual "coq", or chicken breast? Either way, I could do with a recipe to use sometime!

In exchange, here's a radar: http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Probably more useful is this composite PPN / WBFL prognosis from NAE. Either way, essentially light snow expected for our districts (yes, I'm ramping, RAMPING again, naughty me) but pls do bear in mind the caveats re powder snow accumulation as expressed in my earlier post. There will be a LOT of variation locally, I am sure.

Cheers

Ian

Thanks!

Genuine question then, that shows snow in some form or another from 3am to 6pm roughly for my area, and yet the BBC show nothing here?

What do they use in their forecasts? I know the Met get involved but to what extent?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Looks like there will be no marginality regarding the WBFLs!

[Bristawl Si]

Probably more useful is this composite PPN / WBFL prognosis from NAE. Either way, essentially light snow expected for our districts (yes, I'm ramping, RAMPING again, naughty me) but pls do bear in mind the caveats re powder snow accumulation as expressed in my earlier post. There will be a LOT of variation locally, I am sure.

Cheers

Ian

Thanks Ian.

So do the News24 forecasts not get updated very quickly with these charts? I ask because Dan's forecast at 18:28 was not as 'bullish' as the one an hour earlier. Sorry to be a pain, but just a tad confused.

EDIT: Just looking at the radar snow seems to be developing over the Midlands at present and is actually increasing in size of area - could this be heading south west in next few hours?

Edited January 9, 2010 by Bristle boy

[Nights King]

Thanks Ian,

I am exausted today so really have not checked much except for bbc/meto but i am looking forward to the next few days and i am interested to see how much i could get tomoro as gurney slade is northeast mendip so right side to pep up those snow totals maybe.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Coq au vin? You tease! Are you using actual "coq", or chicken breast? Either way, I could do with a recipe to use sometime!

In exchange, here's a radar: http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Haha!

Totally off topic, but here ya go.

One chicken, jointed.

1 onion, finely chopped

3 gloves garlic, finely chopped

4 rashers bacon, rinded and chopped.

3/4pint red wine

1/4 pint chicken stock

bay leaves (2)

tarragon (dried is best, 2 tsp)

Fry chicken in oil until brown, set aside

Add onions and bacon, fry until golden add garlic for a few seconds.

Add wine to onions etc and bring to boil, add stock tarragon and simmer.

Place chicken in casserole dish, pour over mixture add bay leaves and possibly some shallots and simmer for 2hrs or so (in an Aga) or until chicken cooked.

Last 30 mins add some button mushrooms, last 15 mins add some cornflour (in a paste form) to thicken.

Serve.

Something like that anyway.

Edited January 9, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[Ian Fergusson]

Thanks!

Genuine question then, that shows snow in some form or another from 3am to 6pm roughly for my area, and yet the BBC show nothing here?

What do they use in their forecasts? I know the Met get involved but to what extent?

I'm sure it did show a hint of snow, but the PPN rate (in shaded of white/grey) can be tricky to show on the graphics; i.e. trying to highlight more bothersome snow versus the generally light falls we expect here.

It's too easy for us to overdo the graphics and suggest whiteout conditions (and subsequently face further allegations from the S Glos person of ramping )

However, we've yet to see the next NAE so I'm not eager to get cornered on the potential for some districts.... yet.

[dogs32]

thanks for the charts,

Im a north glos person

Edited January 9, 2010 by dogs32