3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 5

[Ben_Cambs]

To be fair on the 2nd of December charts deep in FI showed Easterly-North Easterly for the 17th December. And they were right!

Edited January 10, 2010 by Snowman0697

[lizzieloo202]

Being a lover of winter climbing then the thaw freeze recycle is my favourite

I shall be grateful if any of the Northampton posters will advise of the number of days there has been snow falling this winter. Thank you.

My other half really loves ice climbing, went over to Norway last March, he's keeping an eye on North Wales

Edited January 10, 2010 by lizzieloo202

[Tim Bland]

Cant believe theres not more snow reports and interest on here. In the imediate term we have a huge upgrade with prcip comming inland ind intensifying / back building. Have moderate snow now settling with plenty more to come on the radar. Unfortunately TEITS doesn't seem to be around but I highly respect his views and he said last night that tonight / tommorow morn would be the time for our region. I think some may have a plesant suprrise around the 3 counties by morning!

[Steve C]

Slightly off topic, but Altnaharra was -20C at 7 this evening!

[Jason T]

The thing with uk weather is that no matter what technology and science say, mother nature can change it in minutes, and if im right we still have a least 6 weeks of winter to come

[Steve C]

Cant believe theres not more snow reports and interest on here. In the imediate term we have a huge upgrade with prcip comming inland ind intensifying / back building. Have moderate snow now settling with plenty more to come on the radar. Unfortunately TEITS doesn't seem to be around but I highly respect his views and he said last night that tonight / tommorow morn would be the time for our region. I think some may have a plesant suprrise around the 3 counties by morning!

Last time I looked outside, it was light sleety rain here, although the temperature appears to have dropped recently. Not worth reporting from here.

I'll update in the next couple of hours if things change.

[TEITS]

Cant believe theres not more snow reports and interest on here. In the imediate term we have a huge upgrade with prcip comming inland ind intensifying / back building. Have moderate snow now settling with plenty more to come on the radar. Unfortunately TEITS doesn't seem to be around but I highly respect his views and he said last night that tonight / tommorow morn would be the time for our region. I think some may have a plesant suprrise around the 3 counties by morning!

Im here!

Finally after spending many hrs with temps of 1C, at 8pm its dropped to 0C with DP of 0C also. As you say precip is increasing and you never know what might happen. The flow will change to the SE shortly so this might help us with regards to temps/dewpoints.

Edited January 10, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[shotski]

Hi all, I have been reading glacier points posts on the technical model output threads for the last few weeks and this guy is always spot on.

Does anyone know if he has a background in forecasting ?

[Ben_Cambs]

Im here!

Finally after spending many hrs with temps of 1C at 8pm its dropped to 0C with DP of 0C also. As you say precip is increasing and you never what might happen. The flow will change to the SE shortly so this might help us with regards to temps/dewpoints.

Hi TEITS,

Slightly off topic and this may be a bit model related, but how in your eyes do you see the latest UKMO run, I believe its too progressive in bringing milder weather back and is sort of doing it "too easy"

[tinybill]

Hi all, I have been reading glacier points posts on the technical model output threads for the last few weeks and this guy is always spot on.

Does anyone know if he has a background in forecasting ?

just had a read he knows hes weather any chance hes a pro!!!

[Jason T]

Well hopefully like some have said it has a sting in its tail this cold front, will out wit us all and surprise us.......??????????

[kareng]

Been snowing for about 30 minutes in Berkhamsted, Herts and now laying on cars! Maybe the fight has not yet been lost...

[TEITS]

Hi TEITS,

Slightly off topic and this may be a bit model related, but how in your eyes do you see the latest UKMO run, I believe its too progressive in bringing milder weather back and is sort of doing it "too easy"

Let me put it this way I would be amazed if the UKMO run was right. I've only had a brief look at the models but IMO the strong scandi HP is the most likely outcome.

In future years when we refer to cold winters it will be 47, 62/3, 78/79, 81/82, 95/96, 09/10. Plenty of winter left to come I hasten to add.

Lastly I believe this winter is just the start of a run of cold winters i.e 1960s, late 70s/early 80s. The GW crowd are in for a major shock. Back in 2005 I sent a PM to a member called Yido and I said we're going to start seeing a run of poor summers colder winters. How I wish yido kept that PM.

[snow hunter]

Annoyingly it's sleeting here and washing away the slight covering of snow we got this afternoon.

There looks to be some heavier stuff heading this way though

[Ben_Cambs]

Let me put it this way I would be amazed if the UKMO run was right. I've only had a brief look at the models but IMO the strong scandi HP is the most likely outcome.

In future years when we refer to cold winters it will be 47, 62/3, 78/79, 81/82, 95/96, 09/10. Plenty of winter left to come I hasten to add.

Lastly I believe this winter is just the start of a run of cold winters i.e 1960s, late 70s/early 80s. The GW crowd are in for a major shock. Back in 2005 I sent a PM to a member called Yido and I said we're going to start seeing a run of poor summers colder winters. How I wish yido kept that PM.

Our generally coldest and snowiest month is still ahead of us. I would love to see a Beast From The East giving snowfalls that were experienced in Feb 91 and Jan 87!

[saint]

Snowing again here and has settled quite quicly!

[Ben_Cambs]

Snowing again here and has settled quite quicly!

Dammit Saint you stole my non settling snow from earlier!

[Hammer]

Wind ENE here, temps just above freezing, dew points just below. PPN about. Looks like a period of slightly heavier PPN to come.

[Paul Sherman]

Let me put it this way I would be amazed if the UKMO run was right. I've only had a brief look at the models but IMO the strong scandi HP is the most likely outcome.

In future years when we refer to cold winters it will be 47, 62/3, 78/79, 81/82, 95/96, 09/10. Plenty of winter left to come I hasten to add.

Lastly I believe this winter is just the start of a run of cold winters i.e 1960s, late 70s/early 80s. The GW crowd are in for a major shock. Back in 2005 I sent a PM to a member called Yido and I said we're going to start seeing a run of poor summers colder winters. How I wish yido kept that PM.

Well you know my views on GW Dave and even replied to my post last week about the 10 year cycle, like I stated and you agreed to, 2008/09 was the 1st in the sequence and the starter, think in the next 4 years we will have another winter as severe or even more Severe than this!

My views for how the Models are coping is also the same as others, Re-Load is about 60% Certain to me, GFS Will come on board later this week, UKMO Will be the last, ECMWF Has this nailed I feel, a much better Easterly in the offing around the 23-30th January!

Paul S

[Jason T]

SNOWING HERE IN REDBOURN,HERTFORDSHIRE SETTLING QUICKLY, HOW LONG WHO KNOWS. IM NOT THAT ADVANCED YET, ALL GOT TO START SOMEWHERE....

[Snowangel-MK]

Been snowing for about 30 minutes in Berkhamsted, Herts and now laying on cars! Maybe the fight has not yet been lost...

Same here, not sure when it started as Ive been watching Dancing on Ice on the TV

[Ben_Cambs]

Well you know my views on GW Dave and even replied to my post last week about the 10 year cycle, like I stated and you agreed to, 2008/09 was the 1st in the sequence and the starter, think in the next 4 years we will have another winter as severe or even more Severe than this!

My views for how the Models are coping is also the same as others, Re-Load is about 60% Certain to me, GFS Will come on board later this week, UKMO Will be the last, ECMWF Has this nailed I feel, a much better Easterly in the offing around the 23-30th January!

Paul S

The 80's winters came in clusters and like you said is very likely to be a period of colder winters ahead of us Cant wait till the end of the month, the NAO should return to negative by the end of next week after a short rise to average. By the way when is Kold returning back on?, I miss his posts!

Edited January 10, 2010 by Snowman0697

[BarnetBlizzard]

Plain old rain here.

[saint]

Plain old rain here.

Unlucky mate! Didn't snow for long here but settled very quickly and is still lightly falling.

[Steve C]

Let me put it this way I would be amazed if the UKMO run was right. I've only had a brief look at the models but IMO the strong scandi HP is the most likely outcome.

In future years when we refer to cold winters it will be 47, 62/3, 78/79, 81/82, 95/96, 09/10. Plenty of winter left to come I hasten to add.

Lastly I believe this winter is just the start of a run of cold winters i.e 1960s, late 70s/early 80s. The GW crowd are in for a major shock. Back in 2005 I sent a PM to a member called Yido and I said we're going to start seeing a run of poor summers colder winters. How I wish yido kept that PM.

I agree with you TEITS re Scandinavian High etc.

The funny thing about the sequence of winters above is that I can't really remember any particular event of 95/96. I know it's a winter that's referred to, in terms of winters since being 'the coldest since 95/96'

As a child, I remember 78/79, particularly the Boxing Day to New Year period ( had frozen water tank when family went away over Xmas ) and then big snowfalls in Feb and March

I remember the cold spell from early Dec 81 till mid Jan 82, with the mild interlude over Xmas.

I remember Feb 86, Jan 87 and Feb 91.

What memorably happened in 95/96? I reckon that being coastal, we probably missed major snow here.