Model Output Discussion

[Iceberg]

Looking at the 12z ECM against the 50 ECM ensembles, then the 12Z looks to be in the mildest 5-10% come T168, this to be suggest it has little support.

[Paceyboy]

I am disappointed by two things this evening:

1. Obviously the sudden change in the tone of the ECM op run and its agreement with the horrendous mild run of the UKMO.

2. Many members coming out of the woodwork to immediately jump on the mild bandwagon as soon as there is an ounce of agreement and (in some cases) mocking undertones are not good either and are very childish.

Many members have thrown in the towel with regards to cold to add to this, but we have to remember factors such as the intense deep cold over cont europe which will not be displaced very easily as some other members have explained.

Another thing is that the outputs have been in favour of either a cold or very cold continental flow for days including the ongoing current ensemble support.

Ive lost count of the amazing cold runs shown over the past week and to suddenly dismiss all of this in light of the new runs this afternoon is surely madness!

The sudden change is not very welcome with me too but a cold outlook is still not out of the question in my view.

[Buxton Codge]

It seems ages since we last had a bartlett high

[Bolton67]

show 8ft of snow and 50ft drifts

lol!!!We live in Britain, not siberia.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[TEITS]

Last post until later tonight (won't view the 18Z till midnight).

Lets cast our minds back to early Dec. The GFS parallel run (GFS now) consistently progged a cold spell for mid Dec from deep F.I. Now during Dec the ECM did actually flap around abit which is why a member used Ian B comments on their sig after a 12Z ECM run. Now here we are with the 0Z ECM showing an E,ly at +240 and now its showing a S,ly. However the GFS has progged some kind of E,ly for around 14/16 runs!

So before everyone assumes the ECM/UKMO is correct remember what happened in Dec.

[chris78]

People are so hypocrytical? one run and yes the winter is over and its insanely a mild february, Seriously guys contain yourselves and cut off the drink a little, Its vital that we asses all outcomes yes they are models and are projections theyre not boulders that are there permanently so why do people treat them that way? Tomorrow people will be back on the cold wagon, its stupidity at its best form

couldnt agree more, I am very much new to weather watching..I have had always had an interest and as a self employed gardener the weather has a huge influence on my income...I had found this forum very useful and am very grateful for that. However over the last few days I am unable to learn anything from this thread, I know the models are up and down...but it would be very helpful and a more productive thread if members didnt go into overdrive on the strength of one chart 10 days away. Even as a total newby I am capable of seeing the long distance charts for what they are, possibilities of what may happen and nothing more.

When the beast from the east was first suggested and the board went mad all iread was 47 and 63 here we come...when i asked how often the charts suggested these synoptics ...silence....i have since learnt that ist fairly regularly...please people control yourselves.

Sorry mods delete if you must (please let a few peole read first)

[John London]

After studying the UKMO and ECM models I have come to the conclusion that if I want to see some extreme weather I better watch "The Day After Tomorrow" on Channel 4 at 8pm.

[snowdrifter]

lol I find some of the posts in here amusing, we cant call it over after just one model run, come on? Let your mind rule over your heart. I often get slated for suggesting cold may not happen, but this is no different, I'm equally as far from convinced it will turn that mild either or at all, I wouldn't worry lets see what subsequent runs bring before getting depressed on the situation.

I agree Stephen. I like everyone else have watched the GFS v UKMO fight today, with ECM support for the latter, but I can't help thinking that if the ECM 12z had shown all out support for the GFS, would there still be comments like 'It's still not in the bag', 'FI is still only x hrs', 'We've been here before & been disappointed - let's not get over excited', just as much as the 'The UK will shut down' type comments. Would I have preferred the ECM to have supported the GFS? Yes, but tomorrow's another day. :lol:

Edited January 30, 2010 by snowdrifter

[NorthantsSnow]

Ok found them just wanted to check the pressure graphs to see if there was much support for the 1050mb high over Ukraine 7th/8th Feb as shown on the ECM.

Answer (simply) is no:

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT2_Kiew_ens.png

Average peaks at about 1035 but some get no higher than 1025.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looking at the 12z ECM against the 50 ECM ensembles, then the 12Z looks to be in the mildest 5-10% come T168, this to be suggest it has little support.

But on the other hand, there must be a reason why both the UKMO and ECM have gone for mild, yet the ensembles are still not buying it. I know the ECM looks ok up to +96 hours but from then on in it goes totally against the GFS. The GFS is still as good as ever, the ensembles still look pretty cold, the minor models are ok also but somehow neither the UKMO or ECM looks in any way cold after +96 hours.

[weather eater]

Whats amazing is the 0Z was way warmer than the ensemble mean and yet the 12Z is even warmer. If the 12Z verifies this means the ensembles are a waste of time and you may aswell just follow the operationals.

I do anyway, It seems to me that most of the time which ever way the operational points the ensembles will follow. Not sure where this leaves us, but I would say we have seen the ECM wobble off course before, only to come back on board the next day. I have a simple attitude the cold and snow will be great, but if it that fails, there are positives about milder conditions, for me it makes earning a living cheaper and easier as I can rely on the bike rather than the car.

[Ben_Cambs]

Last post until later tonight (won't view the 18Z till midnight).

Lets cast our minds back to early Dec. The GFS parallel run (GFS now) consistently progged a cold spell for mid Dec from deep F.I. Now during Dec the ECM did actually flap around abit which is why a member used Ian B comments on their sig after a 12Z ECM run. Now here we are with the 0Z ECM showing an E,ly at +240 and now its showing a S,ly. However the GFS has progged some kind of E,ly for around 14/16 runs!

So before everyone assumes the ECM/UKMO is correct remember what happened in Dec.

Couldnt agree more mate. Too many people have given up after one run. The GFS has been very consistent with the Easterly/South Easterly for quite a few days now, and all is not lost yet. We will get a clearer picture soon with the Dutch De Bilt ensembles. Then GFS 18z, if it sticks to its guns

[Jason T]

People come on. I am with the cold ones on this, not even hit feb yet barring 24 hours or so. The models i think are just not playing ball. I am sure they will change with the correct outcome most want.

Correct me if im wrong, wasnt it a week ago we had similar views, then the following morning big changes.

CALM DOWN.

[PubliusEnigma]

No Cold left up north anywhere, gone are the deep lilacs and purples, plenty of green and abit o blue.

could this be a sign of the stratosphere warming and pressure rising again to the north in 3-4 weeks time ?

ECM is even larger teapot as we know it, with all of NW Europe and N europe basking in mild and a monster of a bartlett buidling

every cold lovers nightmare. my gut tells me a mild feb followed by a very cold March and perhaps a very late spring this year.?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Couldnt agree more mate. Too many people have given up after one run. The GFS has been very consistent with the Easterly/South Easterly for quite a few days now, and all is not lost yet. We will get a clearer picture soon with the Dutch De Bilt ensembles. Then GFS 18z, if it sticks to its guns

Thats a good post snowman.Lets look at the ecm ens and hopefully the op run will be a wacky outlier.I know some might say its straw clutching but i guess we need to see the bigger picture.UKMO could be wrong and ecm could be wrong.GFS is a global model and although it has a history of mess ups it cant be dismissed out of hand.

Its not beyond the realms of posibilty gfs is absolutely spot on here.

[Bobby]

Looking at the 12z ECM against the 50 ECM ensembles, then the 12Z looks to be in the mildest 5-10% come T168, this to be suggest it has little support.

The ECM 12z ensembles aren't out yet are they??

[Iceberg]

The ECM 12z ensembles aren't out yet are they??

No not yet barb, It was against the 00Z EPS.

[NorthantsSnow]

Couldnt agree more mate. Too many people have given up after one run. The GFS has been very consistent with the Easterly/South Easterly for quite a few days now, and all is not lost yet. We will get a clearer picture soon with the Dutch De Bilt ensembles. Then GFS 18z, if it sticks to its guns

I don't think anybody has given up. I do think people are lowering their expectations however which is wise in the event of the ECM or UKMO being closer to the mark.

Also as consistent as the GFS has been and I don't deny that it has, it only counts for anything if turns out to be correct. Consistency in itself does not make it a stronger model as it could be churning out charts which are consistently wrong!

[MR EXTREMES]

right ive made my mind up now the cold is not coming maybe a brief se flow for a few days before the alantic pushes in.

trust me i could not hate the models more tonight than anytime in the history of watching,

but there is a strong trend being shown by both ukmo and ecm this is a none runner.

i really think the gfs is over progressive and pushing the cold in far to fast and the ecm and ukmo looking much more realistic.

please dont hate me i wanted this to happen as much as most on here but its a failed.

anyway thats it from me nothing exciting left to talk about apart from what a cold winter we have had and we cant complain.

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

Good 72hr fax with colder weather across the northern parts of the UK

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax72s.gif

lol that slightly contradicts the winter is over post a few posts ago, and the declaration of Feb being warmest month.

Don't post often, but some absolutely hilarious posts in here tonight.

People praying, worshipping, then declaring winter is over on the 30th January on the basis of one model run.

Thanks to all those posters who provide a measured balanced approach for amateurs like me!

It would be great to see a dramatic Easterly, and it's definitely not all over yet. One of the formermost models (GFS) is presenting something pretty dramatic as its operational probabilistic scenario and as I understand it is well supported by its Ensembles.

The ECM is presenting another set of probabilities, tending towards the mild. It could be a mild outlier, I don't think we know yet.

The UKMO is also bad (for cold lovers) but has seemingly been disregarded by... the UKMO.

With the human pros at the MO and the GFS apparently in favour of a cold Easterly, it's hardly game over. Of course everyone is excited about the possiblities but it would be great to see everyone keeping an open mind about what could happen. It could be cold or mild - we just cannot tell on the basis of the current charts. Let's not declare winter is over though or that we are "definitely doomed to 3 weeks of blowtorch if UKMO verifies" as that is not terribly helpful for people trying to learn like me.

have a great evening everyone, here's to the 18Z GFS and I don't think we can assume anything.

[NorthantsSnow]

I don't think anybody has given up.

right ive made my mind up now the cold is not coming

Damn. Trust that to happen!

It's not over yet guys. The fat lady is only clearing her throat and the big gig is not until tomorrow night but could be cancelled depending on the weather.

Seriously one would have to question the GFS' long term viability if its wrong again. They can't keep pumping money into a model that seems to be getting less and less reliable!

[karyo]

Even more models are now picking up the signal for increased Atlantic energy. The change on the ECM is a huge blow I'm afraid!

Karyo

[Jason T]

Damn. Trust that to happen!

It's not over yet guys. The fat lady is only clearing her throat and the big gig is not until tomorrow night but could be cancelled depending on the weather.

Seriously one would have to question the GFS' long term viability if its wrong again. They can't keep pumping money into a model that seems to be getting less and less reliable!

Completely agree.

[nick sussex]

Well I think we've learnt a harsh lesson here and its the UKMO should be known as the dream killer! this model annoys me, it never progs a cold set up when the others show milder but is happy to implode another easterly!

Now that the dust has settled and everyone has got their frustration out of the way lets move on and try and plot a way forward. If you take out the extreme solution of the UKMO and go with the middle ground solution of the ECM where does that leave us, well not quite at the prozac stage because the ECM is still much better than the UKMO at the 144 hrs timeframe.

The ECM at 144hrs could still develop more favourably if the energy goes south rather than north and for this reason and given that theres still model disagreement we should hold fire before calling winter is over etc.

We have to accept that more energy will spill forward off the main trough so the quickest route to the easterly is now very unlikely, so we have to move to plan B. For the timebeing this is still an option but for this we still need the misery model to backtrack tomorrow.

Using a horse racing analogy, the horse might be tired and scrambling over the fences but hasn't unseated its rider just yet!

[Ben_Cambs]

I dont expect a massive backdown from GFS tonight, especially after quite a few days showing a Easterly/South Easterly flow. We will wait and see