London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

Danm, i don't know about you but it feels like London has missed out on everything recently. Its starting to remind me of winters before feb 2009! Hopefully we can grap a snowfall before the end of the winter.

Sadly in these set-ups the south always tends not to do that well in general, usually the south gets rain and a heck of a lot of it whilst places further north get nailed...however even then its rare not to get at least one system that gives some snowfall even if it doesn't last that long so its worth keeping an eye on it all still IMO...

[danm]

Danm, i don't know about you but it feels like London has missed out on everything recently. Its starting to remind me of winters before feb 2009! Hopefully we can grap a snowfall before the end of the winter.

yup we have seen a few half decent snow falls, with the heaviest giving no more than about 3 inches in early Jan. Better than a normal winter, but nowhere near as good as feb 09. Only thing better this year is that the cold and snow lasted longer, while other areas have had far heavier snowfalls. Kent last week, Ipswich in December and places like Basingstoke getting hammered twice. Scotland and northern England are always going to be snowier than us but it's frustrating when other southern areas are getting so much more.

[Southender]

I would not even bother looking that far out at the moment, the models are relaly all over the place, FI is probably within 72hrs right now looking at the small but huge differences to our weather on the models.

On the 06z the far SE does become much milder (10-12C!) BUT within 100 miles the temps are 0-2C so clearly any small shift is going to have a huge difference.

Firstly we have Saturdays event, and only a tiny shift would bring the London area into play looking at the 06z GFS so well worth watching IMO firstly...

Hi Kold, can you give us a brief update on the snow prospects (or lack of for our neck of the woods) please.

I'm hearing Saturday and Monday mentioned a lot, but I don't see anything to get excited about?

[kold weather]

Much is going to depend on the exact track of the system. Some big disagreements on the track of Saturdays system yet alone whats going to happen on Monday. Lets just say Saturday could go as far north as the Midlands or could end up skimming northern France, thats the difference between the models at the moment, and so you can understand why I'm not bothered about Monday right now because thats way too far out.

24-36hrs is the snow FI right now!

[ZONE 51]

Much is going to depend on the exact track of the system. Some big disagreements on the track of Saturdays system yet alone whats going to happen on Monday. Lets just say Saturday could go as far north as the Midlands or could end up skimming northern France, thats the difference between the models at the moment, and so you can understand why I'm not bothered about Monday right now because thats way too far out.

24-36hrs is the snow FI right now!

i agree with you , we see the potential and get excited then 24hrs to go and its off , so yes im going to take each day as it comes starting with the chances of hail and thunder today, what do you think about this kold ?thanks

[ZONE 51]

hail reported in Bournemouth up to 5mm size.

ive circled the downpour thats around the area now its looking intense on the radar

[yamkin]

Metoffice Updated the warnings on Monday for a potential of heavy snow for London & South East!

London & South East England:

Buckinghamshire

Milton Keynes

Oxfordshire

Heavy Snow Mon 22 Feb

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting much of Wales and northern and central parts of England. Snow may be heavy at times, giving the potential for moderate accumulations in places.

Issued at: 1132 Thu 18 Feb

This is only an Advisory Warning at the moment, so expect changes to occur leading up to Monday.

Edited February 18, 2010 by yamkin

[kold weather]

Yeah hail could be a risk later this eveing, the depression is wrapping around a fairly tight region of convection and if you look at NW radar you can see it clear as day, indeed hail is increasingly probable as is maybe even the odd flake given it will arrive quite late...

[ZONE 51]

i find hail exciting as there is possiblitys of a hailstorm whiteout (could make a hail man or hailwomen )

theres some intense downpours heading our way

[yamkin]

Here we go with GFS 12Z. Only gone up to Saturday at the moment.

[thegreat316]

Here we go with GFS 12Z. Only gone up to Saturday at the moment.

looks good for the northern half of our region on saturday, but look at the difference of the uppers on monday from the 6z conmpared to the 12z

might be rain even in the midlands

Turns out to be a snow storm for the north, and when the cold uppers return to us the ppn is out of our region

Edited February 18, 2010 by thegreat316

[yamkin]

looks good for the northern half of our region on saturday, but look at the difference of the uppers on monday from the 6z conmpared to the 12z

might be rain even in the midlands

Looks like the upper temps will be warmer from 72h to 96h at the moment.

102h is an improvement

[thegreat316]

Looks like the upper temps will be warmer from 72h to 96h at the moment.

102h is an improvement

yes, Well at least as you show we have a snow event entering the reliable timeframe on saturday, obvouisly the further north of our region will fair better, but things could still change.

the 12z run is quite differnt then the 6z in the 72-102 timeframe, much stronger lp moving across the country, pushing up the warmer air. after a few more runs we can see if this is a pattern or a one off.

[snowray]

yes, Well at least as you show we have a snow event entering the reliable timeframe on saturday, obvouisly the further north of our region will fair better, but things could still change.

the 12z run is quite differnt then the 6z in the 72-102 timeframe, much stronger lp moving across the country, pushing up the warmer air. after a few more runs we can see if this is a pattern or a one off.

This is all looking more and more marginal to me, particularly if you are South of the Thames.

And I realy DONT want a sceeming Easterly in the middle of March, far too late, I want Spring weather by then.

[Beasterly]

Nothing interesting happening IMBY. It has been raining since 10 this morning, heavy at times, and hasn't stopped raining since then.

[kold weather]

Wel lthe 12z destroys any chance at all of snow here, probably flooding being the only thing of note in this region coming up and endless days of rain!

[Weathizard]

Wel lthe 12z destroys any chance at all of snow here, probably flooding being the only thing of note in this region coming up and endless days of rain!

Its only a couple of runs though so I'll carry on hoping.......

[thegreat316]

This is all looking more and more marginal to me, particularly if you are South of the Thames.

And I realy DONT want a sceeming Easterly in the middle of March, far too late, I want Spring weather by then.

Indeed, things are getting pushed north. Much more marginal for us in the south. Still could get some snow further north of us on saturday, but after that it goes downhill. still lets see what tomorrow brings, seen bigger turnarounds.

looking foward to doing some things in the garden, would rather it be v.cold or warm, dont like no mans land with lots of rain!

Edited February 18, 2010 by thegreat316

[Southender]

Winter is officially over then?

A great start, ok middle, but crap end.

Hey ho, roll on spring and summer bbq's.

Edited February 18, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[kold weather]

Still some uncertainty, esp from the ensembles which seem far from convinced about the 12z GFS/UKMO evolution, but yes I think the 12z runs are going to be correct and therefore unless we get another late spring events like 2008, not much hope left!

[Bluebreezer54]

Interesting you folk should be saying that because Im reading elsewhere about the distinct possibility of a fairly deep low in the Channel/SE on Monday. The possibilty of some heavy ppn from this, which could of course be rain, but snow not ruled out entirely. Any thoughts ?

[snowray]

Indeed, things are getting pushed north. Much more marginal for us in the south. Still could get some snow further north of us on saturday, but after that it goes downhill. still lets see what tomorrow brings, seen bigger turnarounds.

looking foward to doing some things in the garden, would rather it be v.cold or warm, dont like no mans land with lots of rain!

Thats my worry, being stuck in cold, rain, cloudy, no mans land.

It's always such a struggle to get decent snow in this little corner of the Country. If the Midlands have it forcast, it turns up as expected, same for the NE, or Scotland. But in the SE, it either just misses, or clips East Kent, or its just North of London, or mainly (Like on Tuesday) it just ends up as rain!

[kold weather]

Saying all that has been said the 12z ECM goes for a very snowy outlook for our region for Monday, so still quite a lot of uncertainty yet, we can't rule out anything just yet it seems, the 18z runs will be most interesting!

[snowray]

Interesting you folk should be saying that because Im reading elsewhere about the distinct possibility of a fairly deep low in the Channel/SE on Monday. The possibilty of some heavy ppn from this, which could of course be rain, but snow not ruled out entirely. Any thoughts ?

Well this mornings GFS 00z run had this feature and tonights 12z from ECM seems to also have it running up the Channel, or close to. The GFS 06z and both GFS and UKMO 12z though have this feature way, way too far north, so only rain would be guaranteed for the SE.

Must say I've not been all that impressed with the GFS 06z or 12z runs of late, and contrary to what has historically been the oposite, I have found both 00z and 18z more acurate since the upgrade in December, they seem to keep things a bit further South and are less progressive.

UKMO has not been much cop, so I think it would be interesting to see if tonights GFS 18z runs with the ECM, which is looking rather tasty again.

Edited February 18, 2010 by snowray

[danm]

Bring on spring! If all we're going to get is cold rain, then sod it. Its been a good winter, but lets call it quits. Im looking forward to hot weather now

Edited February 18, 2010 by danm